Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241758 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 158 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the north through this afternoon, and remains over the region through the weekend. The high drifts offshore Monday. A cold front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Temperatures and dew points were updated to reflect the latest observations and trends. Dew points along the coast were mixing out into the lower 50s and upper 40s. Very weak instability with minimal CAPE was across northeastern New Jersey. However, this area was under weak subsidence, so will keep the forecast dry. Farther to the south, southern New jersey into southeastern Pennsylvania, instability was higher, with higher CAPE. With a weak low in the vicinity scattered showers were occurring in this region. There is a moderate risk for rip current development through early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area, but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow, particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET. Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s. A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this front. Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure builds back over the region. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF period. Only exception could be GON and ISP overnight into daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result in MVFR or lower conditions. The chances for this are low. All TAFs currently reflect VFR through Saturday. Winds E becoming SE this afternoon at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt tonight while backing to more easterly. Some gusts are possible to 20 kt this afternoon. Winds return once again to SE flow Saturday late morning and afternoon but more in the 5-10 kt range. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt remain possible before 23Z. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Timing of more SE wind could be delayed 1-2 hours compared to forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible before 22Z. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Timing of more SE wind could be delayed 1-3 hours compared to forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late. .Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. .Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with possible showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas mainly on track. Updated for current conditions. High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/MET HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC

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