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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 150835
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO DEPART THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL
BE NORTH OF NY STATE...AND THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...00Z NAM IS MUCH DRYER THAN THE 00Z GFS. NAM
MOS GUIDANCE EVEN HAS SINGLE DIGIT TO LOW CHANCE POPS...WHEREAS
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT. WILL CUT
BACK A BIT ON THE LIKELY POPS...FOCUSING THEM ON NORTHERN ZONES.
ELSEWHERE... WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS. IN ADDITION...WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING MINIMAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.

HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND
NORTHEAST NJ...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. ONE COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EVENING...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH. WITH CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING
WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
SUNRISE. WESTERLY GRADIENT INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SECOND
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
MPH WITH 15-20 MPH GUSTS. CONDS WILL BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS NYC/NORTHEAST NJ/PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH WARM
AND MILD ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN THE RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE US WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS OVER THE NE UNTIL IT MOVES EAST ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE AND RIDGING ALOFT...EXPECT
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WEST-NORTHEAST FLOW
AND SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. SAT/SUN HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES
WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND STARTING ON SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EVIDENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. ECMWF SEEMS TO KEEP THE WARM FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO PRECIP TILL MID WEEK. GFS HAS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND SHOWERS EVIDENT
MON-WED. WPC ALSO SEEMS TO BE LEANING TOWARDS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHING BY TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS. CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MON-WED UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO CIRRUS SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. HIGHS
SAT WILL BE NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.  THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WIND LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT INCREASES AFTER 10Z WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
10 KT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 18Z. AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z
TO 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 18Z. AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z
TO 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 18Z. AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z
TO 00Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z TO 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z TO 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. OCNL 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS SHOULD
LINGER AT 4-6 FT THROUGH THURSDAY...SO WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE ABOUT 1/10 INCH
QPF TODAY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...LN/MPS
HYDROLOGY...LN/MPS