Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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098 FXUS61 KOKX 280533 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the Tri-state area for this weekend. A cold front will then approach the area Sunday night and slowly move through on Monday. High pressure follows for Tuesday. Another cold front moves through late Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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The forecast is on track. Deep layered ridging will allow for tranquil...dry and seasonable temperatures tonight. Lows generally in the 60s...lower 70s for nyc/nj metro...and some upper 50s across far outlying rural areas with good radiational cooling.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridging flattens on Sunday...allowing a shortwave over the northern plains today to slide towards the northeast US Sunday night. At the surface...high pressure overhead early Sunday gradually slides offshore...allowing a weakening cold front to approach Sunday night and slowly cross on Monday. Mostly sunny and dry conditions expected on Sunday...with light e/se flow in the morning veering to the s/se. A canadian maritime airmass will limit temps to slightly above seasonable levels at the coast in the lower 80s...while deeper mixing for nyc/nj metro and particularly NW interior should have temps in the to mid to upper 80s once again. A moderate risk for rip current development exists on Sunday as 3 ft at 8 sec period swells build into the waters with minimal se/s wind waves. There is a low potential for the risk to become high late in the day if 2 ft 15+ second se swells begin to work into the water from Gaston. With WNA exhibiting a quick bias with bringing in swells this summer...and GFDL guidance slower to bring in these swells...will hold to a moderate risk for Sunday. Lagging forcing and weak elevated instability should limit convective activity with the approaching cold front. Increasing high and mid clouds expected...with an isolated shower or sprinkle possible to survive into the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Cold front appears to only slowly sag through the area Monday. Instability builds late Monday morning into Monday afternoon with shortwave energy nearing...but downslope subsidence and mid-level drying will likely be limiting factors for convection. So only appears an isolated shra/tsra threat exists with frontal passage...likely decreasing from nw to se during the afternoon. Strong winds gusts would be main threat with any thunderstorms based on drying low/mid levels. Very warm temps expected on Monday with only gradual caa...downslope flow and deep mixing...allowing temps to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of the coastal plain...mid to upper 80s for nw hills. High risk for rip current development possible by Monday as long period se swells from Gaston could build to 3 to 4 ft. If this occurs...breaking surf in the 3 to 5 ft range could be expected as well. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds behind the departing cold front Monday night into Tuesday before shifting offshore Tuesday night. This will keep the region dry with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal. A cold front approaches on Wednesday and passes during the late day/nighttime period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the period with the best overall chance appearing to be during Wednesday night. There is a chance that the cold front is still close enough, coupled with synoptic lift from a jet streak aloft, for a chance of morning showers on Thursday. For now, will go with slight chc pops east of the city Thursday morning. Drying conditions otherwise through Saturday as high pressure builds in behind the front. High temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be fairly close to normal, and dewpoints all 3 days will allow for relatively comfortable conditions. The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development could continue mid to late week if se swells from Gaston continue to affect the waters. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR with high pressure in control through this evening. Light ESE-SE winds expected at the NYC terminals, and light/variable elsewhere through day break. Winds may briefly back to the E after day break, but sea breeze flow will quickly take over from late morning into early afternoon. Speeds will increase to around 10 kt in the afternoon, strongest at the coast. Winds diminish and veer to the SW tonight. .Outlook for 06Z Monday through Thursday... .Monday...Mainly VFR. An isolated afternoon shower or tstm possible. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday-Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. .Thursday...VFR. An isolated morning shower or tstm possible.
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&& .MARINE... Seas will slowly build into early next week in response to long period swells being generated by distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston. Refer to advisories from the NHC for latest forecast information. Whether seas build to marginal sca levels Mon into Mon night will be based on strengthening of Gaston. For the rest of the forecast period, winds appear to remain below advisory criteria, although they will increase during Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Seas will continue to slowly build in response to long period swells being generated by distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston. 5+ FT seas could move into to the ocean waters as early as Monday night, and potentially linger through the rest of the forecast period. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...NV/PW SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...DS MARINE...JC/NV/PW HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

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