Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 201145 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 745 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front will linger across the region today. Another weak cold front will pass through Wednesday afternoon and evening, followed high pressure on Thursday. A frontal system will approach on Friday, and move across Saturday morning. Another system will then impact the region Sunday night into Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Western Atlantic ridging breaks down enough Today into Wed to allow the upper low over Ontario/Quebec and associated long wave trough to sliding northeast into Eastern Canada. One shortwave pivots up through Western NY/Western New England this morning...pushing the slow moving cold front and lingering shower activity east of the region early this morning. Subsidence in its wake should allow for drying conditions and slightly above seasonable temps this afternoon...generally lower to mid 80s. Upper 80s NYC/NJ metro. Deep mixing should promote gusty conditions (25 to 30 mph) this afternoon...particularly away from the south coasts. A high risk of rip current development is expected today due to residual 5-6 ft@8 sec southerly swells. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The longwave trough axis approaches tonight and passes through the region on Wednesday. Tranquil conditions tonight with seasonable temps in the 60s. Combination of diurnal heating and shortwave forcing should allow for isolated-scattered aft/early eve low-top convective development. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm with some weak instability now evident in hail growth region. Gusty winds expected with any shower activity. Temps should be slightly above seasonable once the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore Wednesday night, with weak ridging and an associated surface high building into the region on Thursday. This will allow the daylight hours on Thursday to remain dry before a frontal system approaches the region on Friday. A few showers are possible Thursday night as the warm front lifts north, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday with the cold front. While the 00Z model suite has come into somewhat better agreement, notable differences still exist in the progression of the cold front offshore into the weekend. In particular, the GFS continues to stall the front over the region on Saturday, allowing rain to linger into the weekend. Sided with the majority of guidance, which has the front clearing the area Saturday morning, keeping the day mostly dry. Weak high pressure then builds in for the day on Sunday before more model differences emerge with the details of the upper trough approaching the region late Sunday into Monday. In addition, will have to continue to monitor the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico as there are some indications its remnants may get caught in the westerlies and approach the region by the weekend. Daytime highs through the period will continue to be near normal, in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will continue to run about five degrees above normal, in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the NYC metros and KSWF to start. Terminals east of there will be contending with lifting IFR and then MVFR cigs this morning, to start, that should quickly lift/scatter to VFR at KBDR/KISP by 13Z-14Z, and at KGON by about 16Z. Gusty WSW flow expected today, especially from about 17Z-18Z until close to sunset. Wind gusts could briefly peak at 30 kt at the NYC metros. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts this afternoon could approach 30 kt. KLGA TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts this afternoon could approach 30 kt. KEWR TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts this afternoon could approach 30 kt. The afternoon haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility more than 6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in winds. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD. KISP TAF Comments: Medium confidence on timing of improvement this morning, which could take up to an hour longer than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wednesday...BKN VFR cigs. Slight chance of an afternoon tstm from the NYC metros north/west. .Thursday...VFR. .Friday...Chance of showers/tstms with MVFR or lower conds. .Saturday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Southerly swells of 5-6 ft will maintain SCA conditions on the ocean waters today. Near shore gusts to 25 kt expected this afternoon with deep mixing. Seas on the ocean waters should gradually fall below SCA from west to east tonight into Wednesday morning. Thereafter...expecting sub-SCA conditions until Friday which time when seas on the ocean could reach 5 ft ahead of an approaching frontal system. Once the front clears the area on Saturday, sub- SCA conditions are then expected for the remainder of the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No flooding impacts are anticipated through Sunday. && .EQUIPMENT... KOKX weather radar is scheduled for maintenance starting this Friday June 23rd for a period of 3 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...FEB AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...FEB/NV HYDROLOGY...FEB/NV EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.