Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 182251 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 551 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks along southern Canada, and into northern New England tonight, and then into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front with the low passes through the region late tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure builds in behind the low Sunday night. A warm front will approach Tuesday night followed by a weak cold front becoming nearly stationary in our vicinity Wednesday through Friday. A separate cold front approaches from the west Friday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Only minor adjustments needed as temperatures are still higher than originally forecast. Well above normal temperatures expected to continue through the night. Previous discussion below remains valid. An upper low and associated surface low track through southern Canada tonight with an upper shortwave and vort max rotating north of the region. A cold front with the low will move into the northern portions of the CWA after 06Z. Weak cold advection sets up 03Z to 06Z. With much of the energy remaining to the north, and with limited moisture and lift across the area, the cold front is expected to move through dry; there may be a few sprinkles in the Lower Hudson Valley hills. Increasing cloudiness and winds not expected to decouple will keep temperatures from falling off rapidly, especially in the normally colder locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The cold front moves through early Sunday morning. This will be more of a dew point front as temperatures across much of the area will be near or higher than Saturday`s highs. Cold advection will be weak however mixing will be deeper, up to 900 MB compared to 950 MB Saturday. The upper low will remain across eastern Canada Sunday night with another shortwave and vort max rotating through the upper low. Again much of the energy and lift will remain well north of the CWA. The surface low will be well to the east and another cold front will approach by late Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A brief cooler period is expected Monday and Tuesday amidst cold air advection as an area of high pressure quickly moves through. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of climatological normals during this time frame. Mid and high level cloud cover will begin to increase Tuesday ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Warm advection and cloud cover will keep temperatures mild Tuesday night. Light precipitation will begin after midnight, with a chance of light freezing rain across northern Connecticut Wednesday morning before temperatures rise above freezing after sunrise. Light rain accumulations are expected elsewhere. Despite the surface trough moving through, flow will remain southwest ahead of a separate slowly approaching trough. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal through the remainder of the week, with increasing chances of rain by late week as the trough moves closer to the region. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Low pressure moves well north of the terminals, sending cold front through Sunday morning. S-SW winds 10-13 kt through this afternoon. A gust 18-20 kt remains possible for the next few hours, but will not be frequent. A low level jet around 2 kft develops this evening with LLWS expected east of the city terminals. Tonight, winds veer to the SW under 10 kt at city terminals and light and variable elsewhere. Winds continue to veer Sunday to the WNW, possibly averaging near 310 magnetic late morning into the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday afternoon-night...VFR. .Monday...VFR. NNW gusts near 20kt. .Monday night-Tuesday evening...VFR. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR possible in rain. .Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE...
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Made minor adjustments this evening to increase seas by 1 ft on ocean waters per recent buoy observations. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels tonight and Sunday as a low pressure system moves through southern Canada and into northern New England. A cold front with the low will pass through the waters late tonight into early Sunday morning. Southwest winds ahead of the cold front will build seas on the ocean waters and across portions of the waters east of Moriches Inlet seas may briefly reach 5 feet before the cold frontal passage. Then in the northwest flow behind the front, gusts on the ocean waters by late Sunday night may be near 25 KT. No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage. Following the cold frontal passage and as canadian high pressure builds southeast across the area, a Small Craft Advisory/SCA is possible across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters south of Long Island Sunday night and Monday as NW winds range from 15-20 kt with occasional gusts near 25 kt and seas build to around 4 feet. The next potential chance of marine impacts will be late in the week on Friday/Saturday as winds strengthen ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MMD/MET NEAR TERM...MMD/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...MMD AVIATION...DS MARINE...MMD/MET HYDROLOGY...MMD/MET

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