Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 021508 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1108 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAVE EXPANDED AREA ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND LACK OF A STRONG TRIGGER. TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE A TROUGH JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO. NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS LI...WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND. THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC. HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER STILL...MAINLY 75-80. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS ESPECIALLY LONG ISLAND INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FORECAST THRU WED. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN- WED WITH PW GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME BOUTS OF MORNING FOG IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER.THUNDERSTORM IS AT LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW GIVES WAY TO SEABREEZES BY LATE THIS MORNING-MID AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE FLOW WILL EITHER GO WESTERLY AT UNDER 10 KT OR STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM 18-00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRIDAY...VFR. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE. .FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IF ANY RAIN. .SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA HAS BEEN CANCELED FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK POINT AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN-WED AS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN/DW SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...24/MALOIT MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/DW HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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