Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011207 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 807 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...HAS PUSHED NE OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS HAS TAKEN THE QLCS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WELL. IN ITS WAKE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS IS SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND POINTS N AND NE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS EVE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU 15-18Z AS THE UPR SYS TRACKS THRU. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...VFR. GENERALLY SSW FLOW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE FRONT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY. .FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. .SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N. .SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
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&& .MARINE... OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. && .HYDROLOGY...
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ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JMC MARINE...FIG/NV HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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