Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 230313 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1113 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ATTM...WITH SCT SHOWERS EXITING THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW. LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAISING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLIMATE SITES AWAY FROM RECORD LOWS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY. THINKING THAT WINDS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND AND UPPER 60S...WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY MORE MILD AIR MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. 60S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. A LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL HAVE SHOWERS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS THE HIGH REMAINS OFF SHORE...WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF ALL TERMINALS. HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W THROUGH SAT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LAGGING A BIT. UPSTREAM OBS ARE NO LONGER GUSTING...SO THINK IT MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO NYC TERMINALS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE HOLDING ON TO THEM TOO LONG...ESPECIALLY IF THEY END UP BEING MORE OCNL. HOWEVER...THERE IS DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...SO HAVE NOT PULLED THEM EVERYWHERE JUST YET. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE W...THEN SW AROUND 10KT ON SAT. GUSTS IN THE TEENS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. STRONGER SW FLOW AT KJFK DUE TO POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING. .SUN...VFR. SW WINDS 10-20KT. .MON...VFR. SW WINDS 10-20KT. .TUE...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS. SW WINDS. .WED...POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS. SW WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 KT IN NY HARBOR AND THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE OCEAN WATERS...BUT WERE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 25 KT ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AFTER COLD FROPA...SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SAT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS. SOME NEAR SHORE GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. AT THIS TIME THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS THEN REMAINING AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO...SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 20S AND NW-W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. THESE CONCERNS WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MET NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JMC MARINE...BC/GOODMAN/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/MET CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.