Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 312346 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 746 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY T/TD/SKY AND WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND NYC. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY IN NYC. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT. WEST WINDS AT 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. .FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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