Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230309 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1109 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW AVG. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS THAT LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL CU BUILDUP. IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. FOR HIGHS TUE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C. CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH GFS MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NAM MOS...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVG TOO MAINLY AWAY FROM NYC. THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW 10-15 KT GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FOR SOME COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR KJFK AND KLGA COULD LAST 1-2 HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST TONIGHT. THE LIGHTER NW FLOW OVERNIGHT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH SEA BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WIND GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST LOWERS IN CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEA BREEZE TIMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. .WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT. .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY. .SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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DROPPED SCA ON THE EASTERN SOUND AS WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH...BUT SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25 KT AND SEAS ARE STILL 5-6 FT AT THE OUTER BUOYS. SCA CONDS THERE SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING...THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
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&& $$

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