Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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018 FXUS61 KOKX 240808 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 408 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds over the Tri-State from southeast Canada through Sunday night, then slides offshore on Monday. A cold front moves through Tuesday with high pressure returning for the remainder of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The Cold front continues to move south of Long Island. Just a few isolated-scattered showers from coastal CT to LI through around day break. Much drier dew points are advecting southward into the interior, and these will continue moving south through the morning. However, enough moisture will persist in the low levels of the atmosphere to keep nearly overcast conditions through mid morning, especially from NE NJ and NYC through Long Island. Clearing should begin to take place across the north around or just after sunrise. It will also be breezy near the coast this morning, but winds should generally settle around 10 mph later this morning into the afternoon. NW flow aloft on the backside of an upper low digging across the Canadian Maritimes will help to bring drier air this afternoon with just partly cloudy skies. Forecast high temperatures are in the upper 60s and lower 70s, which are near normal for this time of year. Mostly clear skies tonight with a high pressure beginning to settle over the area. There will likely be enough of a pressure gradient for at least light winds, but still think below normal lows are achievable. Forecast lows are in the lower 40s inland to the upper 40s to lower 50s closer to the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Upper low moves out into the north Atlantic Sunday into Monday as deep upper ridging settles over the northeast. Surface high pressure will dominate the weather both days. High temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees are forecast both days, with Sunday having the potential to be a few degrees cooler than Monday. Overall though, these temperatures are close to seasonable levels. Excellent radiational cooling conditions are possible Sunday night. Lows range from the upper 30s and lower 40s inland to lower and middle 50s in the city. Temperatures could fall a bit lower than forecast across the interior, and this could bring about a chance for some frost. For now have left out of the forecast, but will continue to monitor trends. The best chance of this occurring as it stands now would be across Orange County.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The high moves offshore Monday night as an upper trough cuts off and digs into the Great Lakes. A cold front will quickly approach Monday night ahead of the upper low. The latest models have come into much better agreement with the timing of the cold front as well as the alignment of the best lift and moisture. Have therefore increased PoPs to likely late Monday night west and then translated them eastward Tuesday morning. As the system becomes vertically stacked over the Great Lakes Tuesday morning, the cold front will surge eastward through the region. This system should bring a band of showers through, ending across the east Tuesday afternoon. The upper trough/low will remain across the eastern US through the end of the week, with models differing on how quickly it opens up and lifts out. However, the atmosphere looks dry under the trough with the deep moisture well offshore. Surface high pressure will build in for the rest of the week as the upper trough lingers. Temperatures for the long term period will be near seasonable levels.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Canadian high pressure builds in through the weekends. Showers, over Long Island and SE CT as of 07Z, will be off shore by sunrise and MVFR CIGs will scatter by mid morning from north to south. All areas become VFR by AFTN with a northerly flow. .Outlook for 06Z Sunday through Wednesday... .SUN-MON...VFR. .MON NGT...VFR with possible showers developing. .TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers at times. .WED...Any showers end. VFR. && .MARINE...
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SCA conditions on all waters early this morning. Winds on the near shore waters will likely fall below SCA in a few hours. Gusts around 25 kt on the ocean should continue through the morning before falling closer to 20 kt this afternoon as the gradient weakens and high pressure builds over the waters. Ocean seas will continue to build to SCA levels through the morning. Seas will remain around 5 ft through at least Sunday morning as residual SE swell from well offshore Tropical Cyclone Karl. Some uncertainty in how long these swells will linger, so for now have extended the small craft on the ocean through 18z Sunday. Otherwise, sub-sca conditions are forecast through Tuesday. Seas could build close to 5 ft on the ocean as a frontal boundary lingers offshore and high pressure builds over the waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No significant precipitation is forecast through Monday. A cold front moves through Tuesday with a good chance of widespread showers. However, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...Tongue MARINE...DS HYDROLOGY...DS

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