Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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921 FXUS61 KOKX 211119 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 719 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Jose will meander well southeast of the twin forks of Long Island through tonight, then move slowly west on Friday. By the weekend, high pressure builds over the area and remains in place through next week as Jose meanders offshore and slowly weakens. Meanwhile, hurricane Maria is expected to move off the southeast coast and is being monitored closely for any potential impacts to the Northeast later next week. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on tropical systems Jose and Maria. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor updates this morning to reflect current temperature and wind trends. Warmer temperatures this morning have led to deeper mixing in the boroughs, with stronger winds being reported at the NYC airports. Otherwise forecast remains on track. High pressure will continue to build into the region from the north as upper ridging is enhanced from deep troughing over the western states. Jose will meander well south and east of the Twin Forks of Long Island today. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. The tightest pressure gradient will reside across the Twin Forks of Long island and southeast Connecticut today, and this is where gusts 30-35 mph will be possible. Cloud shield associated with Jose will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies to at least the eastern half of the region with a better chance at seeing partly cloudy skies from the city north and west. Subsidence on the backside of Jose will keep rain bands just to the east of the forecast area through this evening. High temperatures will vary across the area with middle to upper 70s across eastern Connecticut and Long Island due to more extensive cloud cover. Further west, highs will warm into the lower and middle 80s. Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Jose will begin to slowly move westward and weaken late tonight into Friday as the system gets caught in weak steering flow. The deep ridging to the west is progged to be highly anomalous so the westward motion will only bring a weakening Jose a bit closer to the southeast coast of Long Island. This could bring a few rain bands back towards the Twin Forks and southeast Connecticut. Will carry slight chance PoPs tonight through Friday afternoon, with a higher chance of these rain bands remaining offshore due to dry air and subsidence. Thickest cloud cover and strongest wind gusts, 30-35 mph, will continue across eastern sections tonight into Friday. Again, please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. Otherwise, upper ridging and high pressure will remain to the north and west. Dry conditions are forecast for the western two thirds of the region. Temperatures will be above normal for much of the area, except for eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut where highs on Friday will only reach the upper 60s and lower 70s due to extensive cloud cover. Elsewhere, highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Dangerous rip currents are likely to continue at Atlantic ocean beaches on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With tropical cyclone Jose lingering about 200-300 miles offshore of Montauk, gusty winds and showers may be possible across eastern Long Island and Connecticut through the weekend. Apart from eastern areas where clouds may prevail, temperatures will be closer to normal while humidity will be at comfortable levels as dry air advects southward around the west side of Jose. By early next week, the system weakens significantly and high pressure settles across the area, leading to above normal temperatures. Thereafter less confidence exists in the forecast, as the National Hurricane Center has hurricane Maria continuing northward off the southeast coast. Given the forecast path, beach hazards will likely increase once again with building surf and the possibility of dangerous rip currents well ahead of the system. What is less certain is how much precipitation will be possible between the approaching tropical system and a trough to the west, or how strong winds will be across the area by mid to late week. Please continue to monitor National Hurricane Center forecasts regarding the track and intensity of Maria. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Tropical cyclone Jose will meander off the southern New England coast through Friday. VFR all terminals. KGON may be in and out of MVFR for a few hours this morning. Gusts increase this morning, generally 20-30 kt, with the highest across the eastern terminals. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. KHPN TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. KISP TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday...VFR. N winds gusting between 20-25kt. .Saturday-Monday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Jose will meander well south and east of the Twin Forks of Long Island today, and then begin to track westward tonight into Friday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity forecasts for Jose. SCA gusts will continue for the Eastern LI Sound and eastern LI bays through tonight, so have extended the SCA through 10z Friday. SCA gusts will also occur on the ocean waters east of Fire Island inlet through Friday. Gusts should remain below 25 kt on the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet, western LI Sound, NY Harbor, and south shore Bays. There remains a good deal of uncertainty on how high the winds will get late tonight into Friday on the waters east of Moriches Inlet. There is a small chance for a few gale force gusts, but due to uncertainty in the intensity and location of Jose, have elected to hold winds at SCA levels. Long period easterly swells will likely continue on the ocean waters into the weekend. Have extended the SCA on the ocean through Friday night and this will likely be needed for the remainder of the weekend. Although gusts near 25 kt will be possible on Saturday, winds will continue to decrease thereafter as Jose weakens and high pressure builds across the area. By next week, swells will increase once again ahead of hurricane Maria, allowing seas to build well above SCA-levels. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels through the Friday will approach or exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks for the most vulnerable locales during the times of high tide. This is due to TC Jose becoming nearly stationary about a couple hundred miles to the southeast of eastern Long Island, and Ekman forces elevating water levels along the US East coast. Depending on the intensity and how close to the region Jose tracks Friday, localized moderate coastal flooding is possible along the south shore back bays of Long Island. Surf will remain rough through the week, but dune erosion is expected to localized. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ080- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/DS NEAR TERM...MD/DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...BC MARINE...MD/DS HYDROLOGY...MD/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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