Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261335 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 935 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 50S TODAY. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER THAT PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH IS NEAR SEASONABLE. MET AND MAV MOS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE. ONLY SCT AFT CLOUDS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. NW WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE W IN THE AFT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROF. A SEABREEZE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE...WITH DRY...SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THU A BIT COOLER THAN WED. THESE TEMPS ARE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE EAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH EACH REINFORCING THE COOL..DRY AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...PLENTY OF SUN ON THU WITH SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS IN THE AFT. NW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO THE W IN THE AFT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROF. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME DIURNAL AFTERNOON CU EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES. IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD MORE LIKELY FEATURE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IF ANYTHING POPS UP...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH 06Z THU. LIGHT NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO W/SW...IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AT KBDR/KGON BETWEEN 15 AND 19Z...BUT THEN SYNOPTIC FLOW INCREASES AND MAY VEER WINDS 30-40 DEGREES. IT MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...WITH JUST A SW FLOW AT KJFK...NOT A TRUE SEABREEZE. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ALSO EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 16Z. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME W/NW AGAIN DURING THE EVE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: DIRECTIONS BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN...BUT MAY IMPACT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: DIRECTIONS BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: DIRECTIONS BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BACK TO THE W BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BACK TO THE W BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BACK TO THE W BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. COASTAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE EACH AFTN. .SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A W-NW FLOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN...AND LESS THAN 10 KT ON LI SOUND AND THE SURROUNDING BAYS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATER THROUGH THIS AFT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...24 MARINE...BC/DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW

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