Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280546 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 146 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... OVERALL...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS BUT FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK. SFC RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT W/SW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF A PARENT LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY FOR THE OUTLYING SUBURBS WILL BE LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS STREAM IN. WINDS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THAT TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP QUICKLY IN THOSE SPOTS THAT RADIATE WELL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...THE EXCEPTION BEING NYC METRO IN THE LOWER 50S...AND AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST AND THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI IN THE 30S...WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRESSURE FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT P-TYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY MID MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG ISLAND SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID-LATE AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA - ALSO LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT UNDER 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT TO NW WED NIGHT. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/-SHSN. N WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE. .SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. NW WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. JUST SOME SLIGHT INCREASES MADE WITH WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WATERS BUT STILL EXPECTING THESE TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS NEAR TERM...JM/DW SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...BC/JM/MPS HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS

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