Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181649 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1249 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP...AND DISSIPATE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY N&W OF NYC METRO...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WITH THIS ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND SHOT OF CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR SUN. BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPS ON SUN WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S. TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT...INTERIOR NE NJ...AND EASTERN LI. TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLY ENOUGH AND CIRRUS DOES NOT BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. THE THREAT OF FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE HWO. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS AND DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OF THE REGION. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODELS CONVERGING A BIT ON WHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF...BUT STILL SOME PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF. THIS ALL HAS IMPLICATIONS ON LOCATION OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON THE REGION. LATEST RUNS WOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT STILL MODEST UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. DESPITE THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTIES...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPTION IS AT KGON WHERE COULD SEE SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15 TO MAYBE 16Z. SPOTTY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT NORTHERN/WESTERN TERMINALS. WOULD EXPECT TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW VFR...SO DUE TO EXPECTED SPORADIC NATURE AND LIMITED TIME AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION DO NOT REFLECT IN TAFS. SW WINDS BECOME WSW-W LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FRONT - STRONGEST AT CITY TERMINALS AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SPORADIC GUSTS 15-20 KT MAINLY BEFORE 02Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND G20KT EARLY. .MONDAY...VFR. W WINDS G15-18KT. .MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. && .MARINE... SCA ON OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO WILL PUSH SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FT TODAY PER REGULAR WAVEWATCH WHOSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS ARE PREFERRED OVER HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SEAS BECOMING MORE WIND DRIVEN ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH NW FLOW GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. BEFORE THAT...SHOULD SEE W FLOW GUSTING UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER QUIET CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE TUE NIGHT AND LAST INTO AT LEAST THU EVENING WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES. FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS...EXPECT A MORE MARGINAL SCA EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH W WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL TONIGHT...BUT NW FLOW SHOULD RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AFTER A SECONDARY COLD FROPA LATE TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...MPS/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...GOODMAN/MALOIT MARINE...GOODMAN/NV HYDROLOGY...NV

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