Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191804 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 104 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A strong cold front will continue moving east of the area this afternoon with high pressure building to the southwest of the region in its wake. The high will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. Another area of high pressure will build late week, followed by low pressure moving across on Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The cold front is moving well east of the region. High pressure is building to the southwest of the region. Still a rather steep pressure gradient between the parent low heading north of Maine into Southeast Canada and the high in the South Central US. Dry and cold air advection continue to increase mixing heights with strong westerly flow expected to continue. Expecting peak gusts for the first half of the afternoon when the more substantial cooling takes places within the boundary layer. Top wind gusts still will reach at times up to 50mph in different locations so the wind advisory remains in effect until 6pm. Temperatures are mostly in the mid 40s to lower 50s will be nearly steady for the rest of the afternoon despite more breaks of sunshine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Winds gradually decrease tonight, although will still remain quite gusty with the departing low still strengthening as it lifts into SE Canada and high pres building to the S. All high res guidance indicates that lake effect streamers remain N and W of the area, except perhaps for a few hours this eve in Orange County. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies tonight will give way to mostly sunny conds on Monday. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s tonight and highs in the 40s on Monday, although gusty winds will make it feel like its only in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aloft, models agree early in the period as initial shortwave passes east/northeast. Downstream shortwave will then make fast eastward progress. Here is where some differences arise. Northern stream potent shortwave tracks across the Great Lakes region as it lifts northeast, with most of the energy and associated dynamics lifting well to our north Wednesday. Southern stream trough lags a bit as it moves across the Gulf states. By late Wednesday into Thursday, operational GFS seems to be a deep/strong outlier with regard to closed low around the Gulf states as the trough makes eastward progress. This upper trough weakens over the western Atlantic Thursday, with next shortwave in the northern stream moving eastward toward the northeast by next weekend. At the sfc, high pressure passes to the south Monday and Tuesday. Gusty NW flow will back around the SW as the high tracks east. Thereafter, a cold front passes Wednesday. This front is associated with northern stream shortwave. This looks like the best chance for measurable precipitation, late Tuesday night into Wednesday, chance pops. Waves of low pressure likely develop along the front well to our south in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. Again, GFS appears to be an outlier with wave of low pressure developing and passing close enough for measurable precip Thursday. Otherwise, model consensus suggest any precip remains to our southeast as ridge builds to the NW and waves remain far enough to the southeast. Will maintain a dry forecast as a result, leaning toward consensus. However, this will need to be watched. Dry through Friday before the next chance for precip arrives with the shortwave, clipper low Saturday. As for temperatures Monday-Saturday, followed a model/mos blend. Below normal temperatures Monday will warm to slightly above normal Tuesday as WAA occurs behind the high. Behind a cold front Wednesday, normal temps likely fall to below normal Thursday and Friday before rebounding yet again in WAA ahead of the clipper low Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in through tonight. VFR. W-WNW sustained winds 22-27 KT with frequent gusts 33-36 KT and occasional gusts 37-41 KT through around 19-20z. Sustained winds and gusts drop off by a few KT thereafter this aftn, then subside further tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday...VFR. W-NW winds G20-25KT. Gusts diminish gradually at night. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible late Tuesday night in showers. SW winds G20-25KT. .Wednesday...MVFR possible with showers during the day. VFR at night. NW winds G15-20KT. .Thursday-Friday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Gale-force winds will continue into tonight, before gradually weakening to SCA-levels Monday. SCA conditions may continue through Tuesday night before winds and seas gradually subside into Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds across the area.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic problems are anticipated.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345- 350-353-355.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...JM AVIATION...JC

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