Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 131449 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1049 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NORTHERN STREAM 700-500 HPA OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT 14Z IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COASTAL LOW TO PASS WELL S OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO ORANGE COUNTY...BUT MAKING RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. HAVE SCALED BACK POPS OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WITH EAST FLOW...INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TODAY...WITH HIGH/S MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. BLENDED MOS NUMBERS...WHICH WERE CLOSE ANYWAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. INITIAL GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT ABATE SUNDAY. ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE EVENING ENDS QUICKLY...AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THEREAFTER. COOL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...WITH 50S AT NIGHT (40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR) AND 60S TO AROUND 70 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NWP DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN CANADA PASSES OVER ON TUESDAY WITH A SFC COLD FRONT. 00Z RUN OF NAM/GFS/CMC AND EC ARE WET TUESDAY...WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN EXPECTED IN QUICK UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WED-FRI. LATEST WPC NUMBERS SEEM CLOSE TO FORECAST WED THROUGH FRI...SO NO CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TOT HE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KT FROM TIME TO TIME AT KJFK. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR. -RA BY 18Z. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE -RA. THE PCPN ENDS THIS EVE BECOMING VFR BY 6Z. NE WINDS VEERING TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BACKING AGAIN TO THE NW TNGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUN-MON...VFR. .TUE...CHC MVFR -SHRA. .WED...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATE THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND VEER TO THE E-ESE THROUGHOUT. LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH WAVES BUILDING UP TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ALL WATERS. A NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SUB SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS ABATE SUNDAY AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD REACH THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY LOOK TO BE A 1/4 INCH OR LESS...THEN ON TUESDAY 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH IS POSSIBLE. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH STILL HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMING OFF THE NEW MOON...WILL RESULT IN TIDES REACHING TO WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF A FOOT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BACKSHORE BAYS OF S NYC AND NASSAU COUNTY...LOWER PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS JUST TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ANY COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...JMC/MPS MARINE...MALOIT/PW HYDROLOGY...PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT

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