Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181947 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THEN MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL LOWER THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY AS LOW PRES TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN UP...AND WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS. CAA WILL USHER A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. GRADIENT RELAXES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO CAA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LIKELY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. WILL HOIST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS TEMPS LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ONSHORE OF THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVES TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH AND DEEPENS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHES MONDAY AND OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS AGREEMENT IS GOOD WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTICS. MONDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK FORCING. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY...HOWEVER WILL NOR BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN OCCUR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. AGAIN GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST. WILL HAVE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPOTTY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT NORTHERN/WESTERN TERMINALS. WOULD EXPECT TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. DUE TO EXPECTED SPORADIC NATURE DO NOT REFLECT THEM IN TAFS. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SLACKEN SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS LOSING GUSTS FOR A BIT. WINDS THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT BY MID-LATE SUNDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT IN THE EVENING. .MONDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. N-NE WINDS G20-25+ KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008. NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067-068-079-081. NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...MPS/MET HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET

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