Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 151423 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 923 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region today and tonight. The high will drift offshore Monday afternoon and Monday night. A warm front approaches from the west Tuesday and slowly moves through Tuesday into Tuesday night. Low pressure and an associated cold front move through the region Wednesday. Weak high pressure builds to the west through Friday and then over the region for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Drier air is advecting into the area this morning with west- northwest flow and subsidence beneath confluent flow aloft. Clouds have moved well south and east with clear conditions. Sunny conditions will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s, near or a few degrees above climatological normals. Temperatures were on track and no changes made at this time. Winds will be light with high pressure building into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Ideal radiational cooling conditions will be prevalent tonight with high pressure leading to light winds and clear skies. Lows will fall at or a few degrees below climatological normals with the exception of the Pine Barrens in eastern Long Island, where temperatures in the lower teens will be 5-15 degrees below normal. Near normal temperatures and sunny skies will continue into Monday with high pressure remaining over the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper flow has diverged from previous forecast runs and the southern stream shortwave now remains distinct from the northern stream shortwave. The southern stream wave moves to the east of the northern trough, and then tracks south of the Great Lakes and into New England Tuesday night. The northern stream shortwave then moves through the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. With ridging building ahead of the southern shortwave the eastward progression has slowed even more then previous thinking. Weak warm frontogenesis occurs late Monday night into early Tuesday. The combination results in the area now likely remaining dry through 12Z Tuesday. Model soundings are now more marginal for a prolonged or widespread freezing rain potential as warm air is expected even into the interior with the onset of likely precipitation. Have confined the chances of a wintry mix and mostly freezing rain across the more northern zones, and only to about 15Z Tuesday. With Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing into the area with high pressure off the southeastern coast Monday night into Tuesday expect a moderate rainfall late Tuesday into Tuesday night. There may be a break in the precipitation late Tuesday night into early Wednesday with another round as the northern stream shortwave moves through with surface low pressure moving across the area and then low deepening once offshore. Moisture will become more limited as the low level flow becomes more westerly. Thursday into the upcoming weekend will continue to be dry as riding builds along the east coast and surface high pressure builds to the west. Temperatures remain above seasonal normals as no arctic air intrusions are expected with southern ridging. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will build over the area through tonight. Few clouds underneath inversion possible 2 to 3 kft for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions with northwest flow generally 10 kt or less today, becoming light and variable tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Monday-Monday night...VFR. .Tuesday...IFR or lower possible. Freezing rain possible at interior terminals through at least Tuesday morning and coastal terminals Tuesday morning. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...IFR or lower probable in rain. Conditions improving late Wednesday. S-SE winds G15-25kt possible Tuesday night. .Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR likely with low chance of MVFR. W-NW winds G15-25kt possible.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time. Modest northwest flow will develop this afternoon. Sustained winds will be around 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt through tonight, so no headlines are planned. Winds will decrease rapidly tonight as high pressure remains over the area. Seas through Sunday night remain 1 ft or less across the non ocean waters, and less than 3 feet across the ocean waters. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft conditions Monday night through Wednesday as high pressure moves east of the waters Monday night and low pressure moves across the waters Tuesday into Wednesday with a rather weak pressure gradient force. With increasing northwest winds behind the low Wednesday night into Thursday ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet may build to around 5 feet. Winds are expected to diminish during Thursday and by late Thursday ocean seas are expected to fall below 5 feet. && .HYDROLOGY... Tuesday through Wednesday night 3/4 to 1 inch of precipitation is likely. At this time no hydrologic impacts are expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...JMC/MD/MET SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MD/PW MARINE...JMC/Maloit/JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.