Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 022229 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 629 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WETR TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE EXPANED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE REGION...AND THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE SOUTH FORK OF LI. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT. FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW FRI NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS. SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S. REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. .SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. .SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. .TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON FRI. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DW NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JC/DW HYDROLOGY...JC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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