Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290424 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1224 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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BASED ON LATEST NWP AND SATELLITE TRENDS - HAVE INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH DEW PT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 0S INLAND AND LOWER 60S AT THE COAST...COULD HAVE SOME GROUND/VALLEY FOG. SUBSIDENCE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DOES NOT FAVOR FOG - MORE DEW THAN FOG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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HIGH CLOUDS TODAY PER LATEST SATELLITE AND NWP. HAVE GONE WITH BKN ALL DAY...THOUGHT DO EXPECT THE CIRRUS BECOMING THIN AT TIMES. CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE ON SUNDAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST LIKELY POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE... LOOKED REASONABLE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...LEADING TO AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z/28 ECMWF STARTED TO SHOW A CONSISTENT TREND AND WAS SIMILAR TO OTHER MODEL SOLNS...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS SHIFTED THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LEADING TO MORE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN LI AND SE CT. THE OTHER THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NORTHERN AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET SEPARATE AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN THEY WERE PHASING THEM. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH AND A CUT OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT WDLY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE...SO BLANKETED LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME. RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THU/THU NIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRI AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE MAJORITY OF FRI LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH RIDGING WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SAT. CHC POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY N/W OF NYC. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT A FEW OUTLYING AIRPORTS. BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRI... .TONIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT. .WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING LATE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS AVERAGE FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO AFFECT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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DRY TODAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE AND WED...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEFED UP ITS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ERN LI AND SE CT...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ITS CREDIBILITY IS LOW. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24 NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...PW MARINE...GOODMAN/24 HYDROLOGY...24

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