Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 210540 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1240 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SCT STRATO CU POSSIBLE FROM STREAMERS OFF THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS THROUGH. AN ISOLATED FLURRY POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS WELL N/W OF NYC LATE TONIGHT WITH THIS ENERGY. OTHERWISE CAA ON GUSTY WNW FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A WEAKEN SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...WITH WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST... USING A COMBINATION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...MOSGUIDE...AND WPC GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER PRECIP FREE. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT WHICH WILL MELT ANY PRECIPITATION AS IT FALLS BEFORE REFREEZING. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THIS AS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AFTER A DRYING OUT PERIOD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...MORE CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR A RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH SHOULD KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID. ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID IN FORM. THEN QUESTION RETURN FOR THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ONCE IT`S OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS DIFFERENCES IN HOW CLOSE THE LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST. THE GFS KEEPS IT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY...THE ECMWF BRINGS IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W THRU FRI NGT. MAINLY SKC OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FAIR WX CU FRI. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WLY FLOW TNGT VEERS TO THE NW ON FRI. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE DAY FRI...THEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE FRI NGT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS POSSIBLE. .TUE...VFR. && .MARINE... THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR OCEAN WATERS AND EASTER SOUND WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS OVERNIGHT WITH SHOT OF CAA...WITH SCA FOR REMAINDER OF WATERS. MARGINAL GALE POTENTIAL DECREASES AFTER MID MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS LIKELY BY LATE SATURDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND 3 DAYS WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL PRESENT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR BRUSH FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335- 338-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-350- 353-355. && $$

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