Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201835 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SHOWERS HAVE JUST CLEARED MONTAUK...SO EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS OVC CLEARS OUT EAST...A BRIEF PD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CU DEVELOPMENT AND PTCLDY SKIES ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CU FIELD FARTHER WEST IS SPARSE DOWNWIND OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SHOULD START TO THIN OUT ELSEWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MARITIME FLOW CONTINUING...ERN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW ARE A MAV/MT GUIDANCE BLEND...ADJUSTED UPWARD OUT EAST FOR EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVG...WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART. AN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF NYC. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...10 MPH OR LESS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHOULD SPREAD BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXISTS ONCE AGAIN FOR ERN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEP UP. LOWS WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEG WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SET OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THE AIR MASS BEING CAPPED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE WED INTO THU. THE DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW SEEM TO HINGE ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. DAYTIME CUMULUS OVER AREAS (WEST OF KISP-KBDR) WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT THIS AFTN IS GENERATING LOCALIZED CIGS IN THE 030-035 LAYER. THESE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT AND HEIGHT OF THIS DECK. IFR IS POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF ON MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING. KLGA WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FLOW OFF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND THROUGH SUNSET. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MON AFTN-TUE MORNING...VFR. COASTAL IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LT SFC WND WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZES. .TUE-WED. VFR. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY METRO LATE EACH DAY. .WED NGT-THU...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS AND A COLD FROPA. .FRI...VFR. && .MARINE...
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RAISED SCA FOR THE ERN WATERS AS PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW 15-20 KT GUSTING CLOSE TO 25 KT KEEPS OCEAN SEAS AT 5 FT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT SOME TIME THIS EVENING AS WINDS SLACKEN. THEN SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JP/DW AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/DW

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