Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 312310 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 710 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION...AND PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS EVIDENCED BY A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS IN THE 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING NYC/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ/LONG ISLAND. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM. THE STRONGEST OF THE TSTMS HAVE EXITED THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE CELL JUST SW OF STATEN ISLAND. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA...BUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. CAN STILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE FRONT LOCATED IN THE VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE ADDITION OF SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE REGION BECOMING LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-90 KT JET. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. POP CONTINUES AT CATEGORICAL MON NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN VERY HIGH...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH CLOUDS...E/NE FLOW...AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS ON MON WILL ONLY BE 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE SMALLER THAN USUAL...WITH LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY UPPER 40S AT SOME SPOTS WELL INLAND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THEN THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OUT EAST...AND WILL TAPER POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS...DRY WX WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO EARLY EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT AS OF 21Z PARTIALLY THROUGH THE CITY. TSRA FOR ALL BUT KGON/KISP/KSWF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY IN DIRECTION DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. BY 00Z...MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS MOST LIKELY WITH A NE-E FLOW. THUNDER STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER 00Z AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE HUDSON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS SURVIVING IN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSRA IN TAFS AFTER 00Z. MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT WITH SHRA. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY...RAIN ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... AS A COLD FRONT SINKS S OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING...COMBO OF E FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT PLUS INCOMING 3-FT SWELL SHOULD BUILD SEAS ON MOST OCEAN WATERS TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON. SCA ISSUED E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. NOT SURE IF THESE CONDS WILL LAST INTO MON NIGHT...WITH CONDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...WITH TRANQUIL CONDS. && .HYDROLOGY... FLASH FLOODING HAS OCCURRED/IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF NE NJ AND NYC...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF UP TO 4 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. EVENT TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 3-4 INCHES EXPECTED INLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH 1.5-2 INCHES EXPECTED FOR NYC...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOD-HVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE DAY MON INTO MON NIGHT...AND ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR THIS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-006- 009-010. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>071. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004- 103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JC/NV MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS

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