Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190746 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY AND REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AS ABOVE FEATURES COME THROUGH. TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD SUPPORT PEAKING NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCES AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE 40S. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORESO STRENGTH OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...AND 4-5 KFT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .LATE TONIGHT...VFR. .MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT. .MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FIRST ON THE OCEAN FOR CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THEN TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ON ALL WATERS AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ009>012. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ069-070-079>081. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ004-103-105-107. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335- 338-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...NV

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