Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 212323 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 723 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the area tonight, then begins to slide offshore Thursday night. A cold front will approach from the north on Friday, and pass through late day Friday into Friday night. High pressure will then dominate through Saturday into at least Monday. A warm front may approach Tuesday or Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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The forecast is mostly on track. Only adjusted hourly temperatures, dewpoints and winds this evening to account for the latest observations and trends. Expecting varying amounts of cirrus. Still, with high pressure and light winds, expecting good radiational cooling conditions across outlying areas tonight. Elsewhere, overnight lows will run about 5-10 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Weak zonal flow continues through the day on Thursday, and with no appreciable forcing and relatively dry low-mid levels, it should remain dry through the period. With plenty of sunshine, highs will once again be around 10 degrees above normal. Refer to the climate section of the AFD for details on any potential record highs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Shortwaves pivoting around a large closed low over eastern Canada should help push a cold front southward Friday into Friday night. Before fropa expect a mostly sunny day on Friday, with highs well into the 80s in most places. Most of the associated moisture is post- frontal, so only expect slight chance of a shower or tstm well inland late day Fri, and then only a low chance 30 PoP for srn CT and parts of the lower Hudson Valley Fri night. A large high pressure system building out of central Canada will then bring a noticeably cooler air mass from Sat through at least Mon, with daytime highs in the 60s and lower 70s, and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s. The overall pattern will be slow to change during this time, as the eastern Canada cutoff becomes the eastern leg of an omega block spanning the eastern two-thirds of the lower 40s, with a blocking upper high becoming established over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and the western leg of the block over the Plains states. This plus a strong shortwave trough diving southward across New England may reinforce sfc high pressure and delay the approach of a weakening frontal system from the west as we enter the mid week period, so any PoP Tue into Wed is below 30 percent. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR as High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period. Light NE winds tonight at city terminals and light and variable elsewhere. NE winds continue Thursday morning veering to the southeast late morning into the afternoon, 10 kt or less. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Light NE flow should resume 02-03z. KLGA TAF Comments: NE flow should diminish to around 5 kt 02-03z. KEWR TAF Comments: NE flow should diminish to around 5 kt 02-03z. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .Outlook for 00Z Friday through Monday... .Thursday Night-Friday...VFR. .Friday Night...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. .Saturday-Monday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... With high pressure in control, conditions will remain tranquil on the waters through Thursday night. This will result in winds 10 kt or less and seas less than 3 ft on the ocean waters. Ocean swells from Karl may approach 5 ft on Friday per combo of WaveWatch, Hurricane WaveWatch, and NWPS adjusted downward 1 ft which tends to run high in swell regimes. Post-frontal NE flow of 15- 20 kt after a cold frontal passage from the north may extend hazardous ocean seas into at least Sat morning if not Sat afternoon, with chaotic seas with winds in some opposition to the incoming swell. Quiet thereafter as high pressure builds from the NW. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread rainfall is expected through Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for Thursday, September 22 Location......Record/Year.....Forecast Newark............94/1970........85... Bridgeport........89/1970........82... Central Park......95/1914........84... LaGuardia.........93/1970........85... J. F. Kennedy.....91/1980........81... Islip.............83/2005........82... && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/Goodman/PW NEAR TERM...FEB/PW/JC SHORT TERM...FEB/PW LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...DS MARINE...FEB/Goodman/PW HYDROLOGY...FEB/Goodman/PW CLIMATE...

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