Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 291735 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 135 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT ON FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WITH DEWPOINT FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. SEA BREEZES HAVE STARTED MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE REGION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH. CLOUDS LINGER AROUND FOR MOST LAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND TOWARDS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED MID LEVEL RIDGING. A MEAN TROUGH WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS EVIDENT FROM RIDGING AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERSION AT 8-10 KFT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE CMC REGIONAL MODEL SHOWS THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY DEVELOPING UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION. SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERALL EXHIBITS VALUES WITHIN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLER ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL RESIDE AND ACROSS THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW. THESE VALUES ARE ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH A LACK OF FORCING FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NE OF THE AREA TUE MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEMS ATTENDING WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE S. TRENDS ARE SLOWER ON 00Z GUIDANCE AND IT COULD END UP REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE AFTN ON TUE. HAVE CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF CHC POPS KEEPING IT ONLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALSO ENTERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SOURCES OF LIFT TO CONSIDER BETWEEN THESE SURFACE FEATURES...A TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVING IN...A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL JET AND LARGER- SCALE LIFT FROM A JET STREAK SHIFTING THROUGH. SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS REMAINING LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND BULK SHEAR ARE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY DURING WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS COULD BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS STILL POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA...THEN THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT EITHER SHIFTS BACK NORTH OVER US...OR JUST STALLS RIGHT OVER THE CWA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING FRIDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE BEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER/TSTM...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN ZONES. WILL THEN GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT SOUTHERN ZONES GET HELD INTO THE 70S DURING FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS... AN ONSHORE FLOW...AND POTENTIALLY SOME RAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANY CU SCATTERS BY EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. W/SW WIND FLOW LIGHTENS AS IT BACKS TO THE SW. LOCAL SA BREEZES ARE LIKELY OR OCCURRING AT KJFK...KISP...KBDR AND KGON. SW WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT. THEN S/SE WINDS INCREASE TUE MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 20-21Z AS SW WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR UPDATES TO TIMING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: W/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING A SEA BREEZE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEST WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE W/SW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEST WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE W/SW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BEFORE 19Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA...MAINLY WEST OF NYC TERMINALS. .TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED FOR OCEAN WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET REMAIN UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEREAFTER THROUGH TUE. 5-6 FT SEAS SE/S SWELLS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY TO 20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. A POSSIBLE BUILDING SE-S SWELL COULD BRING SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AND GIVEN EXPECTED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...PW MARINE...JM/BC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.