Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181718 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1218 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY PUSHING ITS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLOUD COVER FCST REMAINS TRICKY. MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION AT 900 HPA. HAVE REVISED THE CLOUD COVER FCST AGAIN BASED ON THE TRENDS AND NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE DATA. RAP...HRRR AND NARRE-TL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW. MAX TEMPS A TAD WARMER OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. WINDS REMAIN NW GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE MIN TEMP FCST AS EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN UP AS WELL. BASICALLY HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NORTHERLY FLOW THAT VEERS NE FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUD COVER FCST...THOUGH PERSISTENT 900 HPA INVERSION SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THE STRATO- CU. FOLLOWED 12Z NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE FOR THE MOST PART. NOTE THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN IL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THINKING THAT MOST OF THIS CIRRUS IS THIN BKN.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE WEDNESDAY`S GREAT LAKES LOW AND ITS COLD FROPA THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWERED CHANCES OF PCPN AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PCPN CHANCES MON AFTN-NIGHT. WITH A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH...THUS THERE`S A CHC FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE. WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID WEEK STORM TRACKING WELL WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE WIND SWEPT RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 970 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SOME VARIABILITY OF NW WIND DIRECTION 30-40 DEGREES POSSIBLE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON... .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW. .SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. .MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. && .MARINE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTING IN SCA WIND GUSTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. && .HYDROLOGY...
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NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SAT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MON NIGHT...CHANCE OF PCPN...MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC. NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED. WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES. MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...IRD MARINE... HYDROLOGY...

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