Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 262332 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 732 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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23Z IR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING SCT-BKN CU OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. GUSTS EXPECTED TO END OVER INTERIOR AREAS 01-02Z...WITH COASTAL AREAS HOLDING ON POTENTIALLY THROUGH 04-05Z. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MIXED OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS THE COOLER INTERIOR...TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND NYC. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS LATE THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...AND INITIAL W/NW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH AS THEY TURN TOWARD THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND 60 OR INTO THE LOWER 60S PER MOS BLEND AND FORECAST GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH FLOW RETURNS LATE. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AS MENTIONED. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN AND AROUND NYC...TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS DUE TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH/CALM WINDS AT THE SFC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUES NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LIFTING THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AFTER SEEING TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...A STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES/TUES NIGHT. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH THE BEST CHC LOOKING TO BE BETWEEN THE 12-00Z PERIOD ON WED. SOME QUESTION TO THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE PCPN. 12Z GFS IS THE EARLIER...MORE ROBUST SOLUTION...DIPPING THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON WED. IT QUICKLY ENDS THE PCPN...WITH THE ECMWF BEING WEAKER ON THE FRONT END...THEN SENDING THROUGH A STRONG SHORTWAVE WED NIGHT...KEEPING THE PCPN IN PLACE TILL SUNRISE THURS MORNING. CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SEEING PCPN AT SOME POINT WED...BUT WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL KEEP POPS AT CHC WORDING. AS FOR INTENSITY...WILL ALSO SIDE WITH A CONSERVATIVE TOTAL UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE BETTER DETERMINED. TEMPS STAY WARM ENOUGH DURING THE TIME SO ANY PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEPENING TROUGH...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TILL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOT OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURS-SAT. 12Z SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE DIVIDED ON THE HANDLING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORMING A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE QUICK TO THEN FORM A SECONDARY LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING IN THE SECOND LOWS FORMATION. AGAIN...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL COME TOGETHER...MAINTAINING JUST CHC WORDING FOR NOW FRI NIGHT-SAT THEN DRYING THINGS OUT BY SUNDAY. WITH OUTLYING AREAS TO THE NORTH SEEING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...HAVE ALSO KEPT THE POSSIBLE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIXING FRI NIGHT. A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL SEND 850MB TEMPS TO ALMOST 10 BELOW ZERO BY SAT...KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S. IF THE GFS SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE COLDER TEMPS.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WINDS AND GUSTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL AROUND 04-06Z AT METRO TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING 8-12 KT...BACKING TO SW LATE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AT COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR. SCT 4 KFT STRATOCU TONIGHT...LOCALLY 3 KFT AT KHPN/KSWF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR. .WED...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. .THU-FRI...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO DECREASE TONIGHT...AND WITH NO OBS INDICATING GALES...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...REPLACING WITH A SCA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ABATE MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS. THE HIGH TRACKS JUST SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...WEST WINDS MONDAY LIGHTEN FURTHER AS THEY EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT. ROUGH OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE HARBOR/BAYS OF LI AND SOUND WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER TRANQUIL BY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY...BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY TUES NIGHT...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS REACHING 5 FT BY WED MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WED...SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT BY WED NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS WELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND...THE WATERS COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE SAT WITH POSSIBLE GALES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5-7 FT FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/PW NEAR TERM...SEARS/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...NV MARINE...SEARS/PW HYDROLOGY...SEARS/PW

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