Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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470 FXUS61 KOKX 240510 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 110 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front will impact the region toward the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A dense fog advisory for Suffolk county on Long Island has been issued, as widespread dense fog is being reported by automated systems. No other changes were made to the forecast. Skies will clear as a cold front moves south and shortwave trough passes offshore. Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low 60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro, but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east. Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for tonight. There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on Atlantic facing beaches on Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s. A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this front. Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure builds back over the region. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure passes to the south tonight and Friday as high pressure builds to the north. Other than a brief period of IFR and MVFR conditions across some southern coastal terminals until late tonight, VFR conditions are expected overnight. Winds will be mainly light and variable overnight. After 6-8z, expect winds to become north/northeast with speeds increasing towards 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east, then more southeast during the afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely to see southeast winds sooner during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late. .Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning. Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front passes through. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS NEAR TERM...JMC/Goodman/DS SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JE/NV MARINE...Goodman/MPS HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.