Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 140008 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 808 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY... ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON...BUT WERE IN IN THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND 55-60 ACROSS SOUTHEAST COASTAL CT AND LONG ISLAND. THESE SHOULD FALL TO A MORE UNIFORM 50S AREA-WIDE...IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS/NAM MOS AND 12Z NAM 2M TEMPS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS. AS TEMPS COOL AND MOISTURE DEEPENS BENEATH A SFC-BASED INVERSION...WITH HYBRID ADVECTION/RADIATION LOW STRATUS FOG SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY IN COASTAL SECTIONS...WITH SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND MON...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR MON AFTN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THRU MON...HOWEVER AREAS OF DZ WILL BE CAPABLE OF WETTING THE SFC. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND THE MODEL HAS HANDLED THE LLVL MOISTURE BETTER THAN THE GFS THUS FAR WITH THIS PATTERN. A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MON...WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 FAR E AND IN THE 70S W. TEMPS IN THE W COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FCST IF THERE IS ENOUGH AFTN CLEARING FOR BETTER HEATING/DEEPER MIXING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL MON NGT...AND THE LLJ WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT PER THE NAM AND GFS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN W OF THE CWA...SOME SCT-ISOLD SHRA COULD BE TRIGGERED. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 60 BUT INCLUDED COVERAGE WORDING. FOG AND PERHAPS DZ WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND...WITH SKIES MAINLY OVC WITH THE MOIST MARINE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE 50S DUE TO THE BUILDING LLVL MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON TUE..AND MOVING ACROSS TUE EVENING. DEEP LAYER S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD TAP NICELY INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ POKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND INTO TUE EVENING WITH FROPA. RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED IN/NEAR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND VIA OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. ADVECTION FOG EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES AS THE MOIST AIR MASS TRAVERSES THE COLD ATLANTIC WATERS OVER A LONG FETCH. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...AND WITH THE LLJ INCREASING TO 65-70 KT PER 12Z NAM COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40-45 KT. GIVEN THE STRONG LL INVERSION IN PLACE THESE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS IN HEAVY RAIN AND WOULD BE HANDLED VIA SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WILL COME JUST AFTER THE COLD FROPA TUE NIGHT AS COLD AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN AND LOW LEVELS BECOME UNSTABLE...WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COLD AIR COULD ALSO BRING A BRIEF MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATER TUE NIGHT...EVEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH/EAST TO GO MORE CONFIDENTLY WITH A DRY FCST FOR WED-FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS/RETREATS EWD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND PHASING WITH A WEAKER SRN STREAM TROUGH...WITH PRIMARY INLAND LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS AFTER COLD FROPA SHOULD BE BELOW AVG WED-THU...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND TO LOWER 50S. THU COULD BE ESPECIALLY RAW OVER ERN LONG ISLAND VIA A PERSISTENT ENE MARITIME FLOW...WITH HIGHS ONLY ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. SOME MODERATION MAY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND...BUT TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVG. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR INTO THIS EVENING...AND THEN FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. COASTAL AIRPORTS SUCH AS KJFK/KISP/KGON ARE THE MOST LIKELY AIRPORTS TO OBSERVE THESE LOWER CLOUDS...BUT MODELS INDICATING SUB-VFR CONDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THOUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR...DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD VSBYS IFR OR LOWER. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY STRATUS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT...AND THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MON NIGHT...BECOMING SUB VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. .TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY WITH RAIN AND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY. GUSTY NW-N WINDS AFTER COLD FROPA TUE NIGHT. .WED-FRI...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SEAS ARE RUNNING BLW WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN ATTM...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THEM DOWNWARD MOSTLY THRU TNGT. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED/EXTENDED FROM TNGT THRU MON NGT. ELSEWHERE...SLY WINDS WILL REACH SCA LVLS ON MON INTO MON EVE...AND AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AS WELL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AT TIMES THRU MON NGT. STRONG SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE VIA PERSISTENT/INCREASING S FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE INTO TUE EVENING...WITH ADVECTION FOG LIKELY LIMITING VSBY TO 1 NM OR LESS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. POST-FRONTAL NW GALES ARE HOWEVER MORE LIKELY AFTER FROPA TUE NIGHT. SCA CONDS ON ALL WATERS WED MORNING SHOULD RAMP DOWN ON THE PROTECTED WATERS...BUT AN EXTENDED PD OF HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS IS POSSIBLE INTO FRI VIA COMBO OF LEFTOVER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO THE SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
QPF OF 1.00 TO 1.75 INCHES...NEARLY ALL RAIN...EXPECTED FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WETTER GUIDANCE STILL SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END LOCAL AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES. MOST FLOODING WILL MOSTLY BE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.