Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011111 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 611 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THEN PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC...LONG ISLAND...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO ZR LATE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ/COASTAL WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD. EXPECT 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS BY AFTERNOON UP TO 25-35 MPH WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY TUE EVENING AS SNOW...BUT WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND STRONG WAA TEMPS WILL WARM TUE NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM S TO N. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE LLJ WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT THROUGH AT THE SFC. CLIMATOLOGY SAYS NO WITH THE LOW SO FAR TO THE NW...SO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MAY BE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...DO THINK TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS...IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUNDARY LATE WED NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY COULD KEEP PCPN LINGERING INTO THU...ALTHOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN S OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR NOW. COLD WEATHER ALSO RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND BOUNDARY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER BUT THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WEAK LO PRES WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TODAY...AND PASS S OF LI TNGT. VFR TO START TODAY. VSBY RAPIDLY LOWERS TO IFR DURING MID TO LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. THE SNOW PICKS UP IN INTENSITY AFTER 20Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH LIFR LIKELY AT TIMES. BY EVENING...SNOW TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST AIRPORTS...EXCEPT KSWF AND POSSIBLY CT TERMINALS. AFT THE PCPN ENDS...MVFR APPEARS LIKELY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ALL ARPTS. CALM THIS MRNG...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NW LATE TNGT AND MON AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. MOST LIKELY TOTAL RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS BY 6Z MON: KGON...3-6. KSWF/KHPN/KBDR...3-6. KEWR/KTEB/KLGA...3-5. KJFK/KISP...2-3. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH WED... .MON-MON NIGHT...BECOMING VFR EARLY. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. .TUE...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. VFR FARTHER EAST. .TUE NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RAIN LATE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WED...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT KSWF...AND PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. .WED NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. .THU...CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ENDING BY NIGHTFALL.
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&& .MARINE... TRANQUIL TODAY WITH DEPARTING HI PRES...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LVLS MON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NGT. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE WITH TRANSIENT HI PRES...THEN SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS POSSIBLE WED AND ESPECIALLY THU WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLW SCA LVLS ON FRI. && .HYDROLOGY...
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THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION...NO IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE THROUGH WED. MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A MELTING SNOWPACK COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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