Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 281951 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND THEN OFFSHORE...FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A VEIL OF CIRRUS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE NE US. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW...WITH TAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL ENERGY AND THERMAL ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS REACHING AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS FRONT IMPINGES ON THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEYS AND COAST IF CIRRUS REMAIN THIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH MILD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING EAST WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS SHORTWAVE/RIGHT REAR JET ENERGY APPROACH AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT WITH SHOT OF CAA. THIS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WITH CAA LAGGING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY LAGGING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CT/LI COMING TO AN END IN THE EVENING. CONTINUED CAA ON NW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS LAT WED NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF PTYPE FOR THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT... SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN AREAS. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S. COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON DYNAMICAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. TEMPS THEN MODERATE GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE AREA LATE WED MORNING. BKN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS DOWN IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR KISP/KGON WHICH HAVE HAD A MORE PERSISTENT FETCH OFF THE OCEAN. THESE S WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...AND BACK WSW LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS AT FL015 WILL INCREASE TO 40-45 KT LATE TONIGHT...SO LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 02Z-08Z. MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MOST OF WED MORNING VIA MOIST S-SW FLOW. COASTAL SITES ESPECIALLY KJFK/KISP/KGON COULD SEE BRIEF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KSWF AFTER MIDDAY AND ENTER THE NYC METRO AIRSPACE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WED MORNING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR CONDS WITH BKN015 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WED MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED AFTERNOON...COLD FROPA WITH WINDS SHIFTING W. G15-20KT POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH SCT SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN SHOWERS BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. NE-N WINDS G20-25KT. .SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. N WINDS G25-30KT. .SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT S/SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS UP TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT INTO WED MORN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESIDUAL 4-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVE. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...MPS/NV HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.