Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251730 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 130 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...CRISTOBAL PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING LENDING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ONLY A FEW CU BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE. A STRONG RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS DOES SHIFT EAST. LIGHT WIND CONTINUES WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING. MAV/METS WERE VERY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS AND EVEN A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS BUT WITH A SEA BREEZE TODAY...COULD BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAT THE GUIDANCE IS LETTING ON. STUCK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. 00Z MAV DATA UNREALISTIC WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. WENT WITH MET/MOSGUIDE BLEND WITH A SLIGHT BUMP DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AGAIN. WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND THEN SLIDING OFFSHORE WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND BUILDING IN. ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND 850C TEMPS AROUND 15-16 DEGREES. MAV/MET BLEND WORKED FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ONCE AGAIN AND MAY LIMIT TEMPS ALONG THE COASTS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS 850MB TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND 17C. THIS TRANSLATES TO AROUND 90 FOR THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF CRISTOBAL REMAINS WELL S AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING WEDS NIGHT/THURS. MAIN IMPACTS HERE DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD BE RIP CURRENT HAZARDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A RESULTING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. CONVECTION SPILLING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS COULD BRING ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SATURDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONTINUING. LIGHT N/NE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSWF. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AT COASTAL CT AND INTERIOR TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: S/SE SEABREEZE EXPECTED BTWN 18-19Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NE SOUND BREEZE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO S/SE SEABREEZE EXPECTED BTWN 19Z TO 21Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SE SEABREEZE EXPECTED BTWN 19-20Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: S/SE SEABREEZE EXPECTED BTWN 20-21Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: S/SE SEABREEZE EXPECTED BTWN 19-21Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: S/SE SEABREEZE EXPECTED BTWN 19-20Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT... .TONIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AND COASTAL CT TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY REACH SCA LEVELS DUE TO SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AS EARLY AS WED AFTN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/LN NEAR TERM...LN/MET SHORT TERM...LN LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...BC/NV MARINE...JC/LN/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

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