Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281807 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 207 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH SUNSHINE FILTERED BY CIRRUS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING LENDING TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COAST...TO LOWER 70S TO 75 METRO NYC/NJ AND INTERIOR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG. THE COVERAGE IS SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS USED FOR THE FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60. THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS GUIDANCE AND YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NIGHT. ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CHANCES ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR NOW...SOME LGT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AGAIN THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LGT AT THIS TIME. LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO RESULT IN ONLY NW FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TOO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF SUN. CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE AREA LATE WED MORNING. BKN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT WINDS DOWN IN MOST PLACES...BUT THINK THEY WILL REBOUND TO AT OR JUST UNDER 10 KT FOR A SHORT PD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SCATTER OUT. LIGHT S WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BACK WSW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AT FL015 WILL INCREASE TO 40-45 KT LATE TONIGHT...SO LLWS LAY BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 02Z-08Z. MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MOST OF WED MORNING VIA MOIST S-SW FLOW. COASTAL SITES ESPECIALLY KJFK/KISP/KGON COULD SEE BRIEF IFR CONDS EARLY WED MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KSWF AFTER MIDDAY AND ENTER THE NYC METRO AIRSPACE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WED MORNING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 180-190 TRUE. LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 180-190 TRUE. LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IMC CONDS WITH BKN015 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS POSSIBLE 02Z-08Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR CONDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY WED MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED AFTERNOON...COLD FROPA WITH WINDS SHIFTING W. G15-20KT POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH SCT SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN OR SNOW AT KSWF/POSSIBLY KHPN...RAIN ELSEWHERE. N-NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE. .SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. N-NE WIND G25-35KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL S/SW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS THIS AFT/EVE. SCA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOR SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING WAVE HEIGHTS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL OVERALL. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST WITH THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...JMC/JM HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM

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