Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 231746
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
A stationary front will remain just south of the area this
afternoon, and then sink southward as a weak cold front tonight.
High pressure will then build in through Friday, remain over the
region through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A
cold front will impact the region during the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Bulk of showers with MCS are well off the southern Mid atlantic
coast. Only a few isold showers or sprinkles expected through this
afternoon, first with the northernmost fringe of the MCS, then
later on well NW of NYC as upper trough passes through. Do not
expect any thunder, as NAM afternoon SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg well
inland looks overdone compared to SREF/GFS soundings which are
capped in the mid levels.
High temps this afternoon should be mostly in the upper 70s and
lower 80s, warmest from NYC north/west and also in the
CT River valley.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build into the NE states tonight through
Friday. GFS time series for New York City shows steadily rising
MSLP beginning around 00Z. With subsidence and PW falling to
around 0.75", the forecast is for dry weather. SuperBlend was
used for temperatures, since NWP guidance was in good agreement.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The first half of the long term period will remain dry as high
pressure remains over the region through the weekend.
Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day,
possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In
addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land
temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon
seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s.
The high moves offshore Sunday night, giving way to an approaching
cold front Monday night. This front will slowly works its way across
the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Will continue to carry chance
POPs for showers and thunderstorms as the front passes through.
Drier weather returns to end the week as high pressure returns.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure passes to the south tonight and Friday as high
pressure builds to the north.
VFR through the TAF period. Possible shower western terminals this
afternoon, otherwise dry weather expected.
Light and variable or light SE winds expected this afternoon.
Winds will be light or calm this evening. After midnight, expect
winds to become north/northeast. Speeds increase Friday morning.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Light south/southeast winds continue this
afternoon. Cannot rule out a shower this afternoon.
KLGA TAF Comments: Light east/northeast winds are expected to turn
to the southeast. Timing could be off an hour or two. Cannot rule
out a shower this afternoon.
KEWR TAF Comments: Light southeast winds continue this afternoon.
Cannot rule out a shower this afternoon.
KTEB TAF Comments: Cannot rule out a shower this afternoon.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday AFTERNOON-Sunday NIGHT...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a SLIGHT chance for
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers/thunderstorms.
Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through early next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be
possible both Sat/Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop.
No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for
precip will be Tuesday through Wednesday as a cold front passes