Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 300011 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 811 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND HOURLY T/TD BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT JET PRODUCING SHOWERS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END FROM NW TO SE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...SW CT AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS OVER SE CT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS FALL INTO 40S...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE FLOW. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE. UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS LATER AT NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS ACCORDINGLY. CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. VFR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VFR ON SUN. E WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK TO THE NE LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS LIKELY VEER TO THE SE SAT MORNING. LATE DAY SSE SEABREEZE LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO SE AND THEN SSE SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO SE AND THEN SSE SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO ESE AND THEN SE SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO ESE AND THEN SSE SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO ESE AND THEN SSE SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TO SE AND THEN SSE SAT MORN INTO AFT COULD BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SAT EVENING...VFR. .LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. .TUE...VFR. .WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE INCREASED TO 5 TO 7 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT. THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME. EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT. INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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