Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261756 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 156 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DUE TO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. CUMULUS MOVING IN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MORNING SOUNDING...ALTHOUGH CAA SHOULD PRECLUDE TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH HIGHER THAN MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE DRY AND CHILLY AIR MOVING IN AND CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THRU THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER JUST EAST OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THURSDAY IS DRY ONCE AGAIN. THEN...UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THEN TEMPERATURES COOL SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS BELOW NORMAL LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A STRONG NW FLOW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. W-NW WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AT AROUND 10 KT. VFR WITH SCT-BKN STRATA CU AROUND 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .MON-TUE...VFR. .WED...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. .THU-FRI...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CREATING A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. OCEAN SEAS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 5-7 FT AS MEASURED BY VARIOUS BUOYS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE OCEAN SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KT. THE 34-35KT GUSTS LOOK TO BE MORE FREQUENT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE EAST OF MORICHES INLET SO A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE TO ADDRESS THIS. THE GALES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR THIS MARINE ZONE. FOR OTHER WATERS...SCA WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AND OCCASIONAL 35 KT GUSTS FOR THE OCEAN ZONE BETWEEN FIRE ISLAND INLET AND MORICHES INLET. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE QUIET AS WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE MONDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT OCEAN SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET...BUT FREQUENCY SEEMS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO EXTEND SCA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESTORE SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY. SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT AND DIMINISH. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350. && $$ AVIATION...DW

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