Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190529 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 129 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MAINLY HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING W/NW AND INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE LOWER POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUTLYING PARTS OF THE REGION FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL. SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION - LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE - WOULD BE FOR MVFR-IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO KJFK AND MAYBE KISP. WINDS VEER TO THE NW 5-10KT BY 11-12Z. APPEARS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 15-20KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE N THEN NNE-NE AND SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G202-5KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. .WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/FIG NEAR TERM...NV/JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JM/FIG FIRE WEATHER...JM HYDROLOGY...JM/FIG

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