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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 151746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND RISING
DEWPOINTS...ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES TO INCREASE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL ARE AT A LOW PROBABILITY. LOWERED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. ONE COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EVENING...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH. WITH CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING
WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY
SUNRISE. WESTERLY GRADIENT INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SECOND
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
MPH WITH 15-20 MPH GUSTS. CONDS WILL BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS NYC/NORTHEAST NJ/PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH WARM
AND MILD ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN THE RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE US WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS OVER THE NE UNTIL IT MOVES EAST ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE AND RIDGING ALOFT...EXPECT
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WEST-NORTHEAST FLOW
AND SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. SAT/SUN HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES
WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND STARTING ON SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EVIDENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. ECMWF SEEMS TO KEEP THE WARM FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO PRECIP TILL MID WEEK. GFS HAS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND SHOWERS EVIDENT
MON-WED. WPC ALSO SEEMS TO BE LEANING TOWARDS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHING BY TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS. CANNOT GO MUCH HIGHER
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MON-WED UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO CIRRUS SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. HIGHS
SAT WILL BE NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHICH
WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 3-4KFT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL THE EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CHANCES ARE LOW.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 10 KT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z TO 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z TO 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z TO 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THE
GUSTS...POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE NO GUSTS OR INFREQUENT. AMENDMENTS
FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z TO 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE 18Z TO 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. 25 KT
GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. OCNL 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS SHOULD
LINGER AT 4-6 FT THROUGH THURSDAY...SO WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE ABOUT 1/10 INCH
QPF TODAY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...LN/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN/MPS