Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 182305 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER ERN CT AND LONG ISLAND LATE AND TURN FLOW E-NE...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER. TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON TUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. UNDER THIS RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN BECOMES BLOCKED THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TRAPPING THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BLOCKING PATTERN. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS NO REAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. POPS THEN LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOW FROM BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...ESPECIALLY AT JFK. COASTAL CT TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW...WINDS INCREASE TO 8-10 KT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. IF THIS OCCURS...BEST TIMING WILL BE AFTER 20Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY...VFR. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS LATE FRI...AND CONTINUE INTO SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 5-7 FT BY LATE SAT. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC MARINE...GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

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