Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281518 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1118 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with its surface cold front reflection this afternoon. Showers lingering a tad longer over far E Long Island than originally forecast, so have upped pops there. Also, noting extensive cloud cover over the area, have slowed down timing of onset of thunder across the area, as any instability will be slow to be achieved. Latest high resolution models suggest that any significant CAPE (1000 J/kg or more) will be confined to areas mainly W of the Hudson River this afternoon. Also looking at latest regional radar and HRRR suggest that most areas could remain dry through around 21z, so have reduced pops through this afternoon as well. In addition, have now confined any mention of small hail, gusty winds and heavy rain to far Western Orange county at 21z, consistent with this. In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat. The marginal risk area likely is over done, given current expectation for significant CAPE to be focused mainly W of the Hudson River. An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday. Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight with showers ending by 10z Wednesday. SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the approach of the short wave trough axis. Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates east. At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning with high pressure to follow through early next week. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday morning. S/SE winds around 10KT. Cigs around 1000ft into early afternoon, possibly lifting later this afternoon before a chance of showers and tstms late in the day. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z. Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall. KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z. Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall. KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17- 18z,and MVFR cigs might not materialize. Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z. Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall. KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail most of the day. KISP TAF Comments: VFR could prevail through the rest of the morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain. .Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR. .Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms. .Saturday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in observations and guidance. The main change was to slow down the timing and extent of thunder of the waters this afternoon/early this evening. Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters through the period. Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late Wednesday and Friday night.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy rainfall. Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of NYC.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maloit/GC/DW NEAR TERM...Maloit/GC SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC/MPS MARINE...Maloit/GC/DW HYDROLOGY...Maloit/GC/DW

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