Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230146 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 946 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MEANDER ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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SHRA EAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST...THEN MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM S TO N. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A LAV/MAV/MET BLEND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE CLOSED LOW REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER STRONG VORTICITY MAX AND SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...SO EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. THE DEVELOPMENT FOR FROST HOWEVER MAY BE HARD TO GET IF WINDS STAY UP AROUND 5-10 MPH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT FRIDAY PROBABLY FEATURES MORE AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS WITH MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. A SHORTWAVE IS ALSO PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOW WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT. MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TOWARDS MAINE. THIS PROBABLY SUPPRESSES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND KEEPS ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT RISE A LITTLE...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GET CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT PROBABLY FALLING SHORT IN MOST CASES. THE UPPER LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE TRI STATE AREA. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY INCREASES. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD. WEAK RIDGING OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY HEADS OUT TO SEA. THIS PROBABLY KEEPS ANY CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY LIFTING NE AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO THIS COULD AFFECT US LATER IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THRU THE REGION THIS EVE...WITH A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THU AFTERNOON. RAIN WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CONDITIONS PUSHES EAST OF EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z. ISOLATED SHRA...MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS BACK TO WEST BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE AT NYC METRO TERMINALS. SCT-BKN 050-060 STRATO-CU TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED -SHRA. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHRA. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR THURSDAY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LEFT OF 31O MAGNETIC...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ISOLATED SHRA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR THURSDAY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LEFT OF 31O MAGNETIC...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ISOLATED SHRA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR THURSDAY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LEFT OF 31O MAGNETIC...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ISOLATED SHRA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR THURSDAY ISOLATED SHRA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR THURSDAY ISOLATED SHRA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THURSDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS. .FRI...VFR WITH NW WINDS 15-25KT. .SAT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. .SUN-MON...VFR WITH N FLOW. && .MARINE...
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MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES AND NY HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE COULD SEE SOME LULLS IN GUSTS EARLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA...DO EXPECT RETURN TO SCA LEVEL GUSTS THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5-7 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...SO WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL FOR NOW. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT RIGHT NOW...JUST IN CASE WAVEWATCH IS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. THERE IS A CHANCE SEAS COULD FALL JUST BELOW 5 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AND PROBABLY EVEN LAST ON THE OCEAN THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THEN BECOMES WEAKER DURING THE WEEKEND...SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. FOR MONDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE...BUT PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ338-350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...NV MARINE...MALOIT/BC/JC HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC/JC

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