Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 122302 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 702 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS FROM LATE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TONIGHT. ALOFT...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED. SURFACE AND H8 WARM FRONT REMAIN NORTH...AND DRIFT FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO INTO THE 40S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN AND AROUND NEW YORK CITY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... RISING HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EAST COAST AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AREA REMAINS WARM SECTORED. THESE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY WATER WILL RESULT IN LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREADS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER AS HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM INDICATE. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SUNDAY...WITH EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK. TEMPS GET PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AS YOU HEAD WEST TOWARD NYC...NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SW CT. AS LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING ACROSS AND TO THE EAST LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS OVER LAND RISING INTO THE 50S WHILE OCEAN TEMPS REMAIN IN THE CHILLY LOWER AND MID 40S...WILL LEAD TO ADVECTION FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY MON AM...THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF... TEMPS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WELL INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES. DO NOT EXPECT LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH POP INCREASING TO LIKELY NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ON TUE AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES INTO THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING BRIEFLY TO SNOW. WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FCST WED INTO THU ESPECIALLY FOR SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...IN CASE ANY SUBSEQUENT WAVES DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDS THROUGHOUT THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS...THEN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYS SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT. TEMPS WED-THU SHOULD BE BELOW AVG...THEN SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO AVG FRI INTO SAT. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA TNGT. VFR THRU 6Z...THEN MOST LIKELY VFR THRU 18Z. THERE IS A SUGGESTION IN SOME OF THE DATA THAT IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP FOR A A COUPLE HOURS SUN MRNG. THE TAFS LEAN TOWARDS VFR BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...IFR MAY DEVELOP BY 00Z MON...MAINLY S COASTS...WITH PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. SEA BREEZE FLOW THRU THIS EVE. ANY LIGHT AND VRB FLOW TNGT BECOMES SLY BY SUN MRNG...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING THRU THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUN...LOW CHC IFR BY 00Z. S WINDS AROUND 20KT. .SUN NGT-MON...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR. S WINDS 15-25KT. .MON NGT-TUE...IFR LIKELY WITH RAIN AND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. .WED...VFR. .THU...VFR. && .MARINE...
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ISSUED SHORT FUSED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS E OF MORICHES INLET... WHERE 5-FT SOUTHERLY SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT BY LATE DAY OR AT NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR MARINERS TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING. SCA HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT NOT FOR THE SHELTERED WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND AS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THERE IS STILL TOO LOW ATTM. AN EXTENDED PD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED VIA PERSISTENT S FLOW MON INTO TUE EVENING...THEN AS PERSISTENT NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE LATER THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF GALES MAINLY ON THE OCEAN JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...ALSO BRIEF SCA CONDS ON THE ERN SOUND/BAYS DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL COME FROM TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED LOWER...BUT STILL THINK RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...JMC MARINE...GOODMAN/PW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW

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