Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201748 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 148 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds this morning, then moves east late today and tonight. A series of frontal systems impact the area next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Other than some very light rain showers this afternoon, a mostly dry, but cloudy afternoon is expected. NE winds turn to the E/SE and lighten as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs in the 60s are expected this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge builds temporarily, as sfc high passes offshore during this time frame. Generally clear skies tonight into Sunday morning will give way to increasing high and mid clouds later in the day Sunday. Cool temps tonight, ranging from around 40 in the normally cooler locations, to around 50, will warm into the 60s Sunday, still below normal. By Sunday night, the ridge axis moves east, and deep SW flow, and WAA moves in. Showers will become increasingly likely as the night progresses. A warm front approaches, with the cold front lagging back into PA by early Monday morning. Sfc low will remain north of the Great Lakes, associated with closed upper level low. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A broad upper trough over the mid section of the country translates slowly east through the week. This will result in multiple frontal systems impacting the area this week, the first Monday into Monday night, and then another Wednesday night into Thursday. Both have the potential for widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms and rainfall amounts in excess of an inch. Global models, in particular the GFS and ECMWF, are in overall good agreement with a gradual eastward translation of a high amplified flow across the conus. There are of course some timing differences, but they are not that significant for this point in time. Temperatures Monday will be several degrees below seasonable, in particular Monday, with onshore flow and widespread rain. The rest of the week will moderate to near or slightly above seasonable levels. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR weather is forecast through Sunday. High pressure NW of New England will move east of the area Sunday afternoon. Winds mainly from the SE 5-10 kt until 01z, then light and variable until 14z Sunday. SE winds 10-15 kt thru the day Sunday. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR or lower conditions in showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday. .TUESDAY...Mainly VFR. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
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&& .MARINE... Conditions on the area waters have fallen below SCA conditions. Therefore, the small craft advisory has been allowed to expire. The lighter winds will persist through the latter portion of the weekend as the high slowly pushes offshore. Increasing southerly flow is expected Sunday night and Monday ahead of a cold front. Conditions may approach SCA criteria as winds increase, and ocean seas build to 4 or 5 ft. Then, expect winds to diminish and seas to remains fairly tranquil, or subside somewhat as high pressure builds across the waters Tuesday into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Do not foresee hydrologic impacts Monday, but cannot rule out poor drainage/urban flooding if 1 to 2 inch amounts are realized. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...BC/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...DW/PW AVIATION...GC MARINE...BC/PW HYDROLOGY...PW

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