Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281630 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL UPDATE THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. SUNNY AND DRY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SEA BREEZES WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COASTS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE ON MON. A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY GET CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE LOCAL WEATHER. IT COULD POSSIBLY BE A FACTOR IN THE STEERING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO COME UP WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO A LIGHT N-NE FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SEABREEZES AT ALL BUT KSWF AND PROBABLY KHPN. DOUBTS INCREASING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF SEABREEZE...SO GENERALLY DELAYED AN HOUR AT ALL BUT CT TERMINALS AND REMOVED FROM KHPN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS 5 TO 10 KT ON THE OCEAN AND AROUND 5 KT ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT AND AROUND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. WITH A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...CAN EXPECT MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY-TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF NY HARBOR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ENHANCED LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL 25 KT WIND GUSTS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/DW NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...BC/MALOIT MARINE...DS/DW HYDROLOGY...DS/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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