Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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253 FXUS61 KOKX 181446 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1046 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING. QUESTION OF THE DAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE STRATUS BREAKS UP...AND IF SO...HOW MUCH? LATEST VISIBILE SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN CT AND INTO THE NORTH FORK OF LI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CLEARING. WITH E/SE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 60 ACROSS EASTERN CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ALONG THE COASTS. INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...DUE TO THE OCNL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TO FILTER THROUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM WEST TO EAST...WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...AND COASTAL AREAS...AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER A WARMER AND MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NYC...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LOWER IN THE EVENING...AND THEN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH LARGELY CONFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST NEXT SUN. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPS NEARLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DAMPENS AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY WED INTO THU. THE NAM WRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS IT BRING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUPPRESSED SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT DO BRING IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THU. PREFERRED TO STAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS EASTERN PA...STALL...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CONTINUE ACROSS CITY TERMINALS THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH END MVFR IS LIKELY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SE CT AND E LONG ISLAND AND THIS MAY WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SE AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY +/- ONE TO TWO HOURS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY +/- ONE TO TWO HOURS. WINDS MAY STAY NE A BIT LONGER THAN FORECAST. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY +/- ONE TO TWO HOURS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY +/- ONE TO TWO HOURS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY +/- ONE TO TWO HOURS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY +/- ONE TO TWO HOURS. MODERATE CHANCE FOR VFR THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING...LIFR/IFR LIKELY IN FOG/STRATUS AND/OR SHRA/TSTM. .TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20+KT POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP CONDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE...AND THEN FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. NW GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 20 KT WED INTO WED NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OCEAN SEAS BELOW 5 FT. && .HYDROLOGY... BETWEEN 2/10 AND 3/10 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...BC/MPS/DW SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...GC/DS MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW

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