Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261942 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 342 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move offshore this evening. High pressure will then build in for the weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday night and slowly move through Monday. This front will dissipate over or just south of the area on Tuesday. Another cold front moves through late Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The cold front will continue to steadily track through the Tri- State Region into the early evening. Based on radar and satellite timing, the front should be past Montauk by 21Z. There are some signs that the sea breeze flow will slow the front a little, so this has been taken into account for the forecast. Very little rain has occurred with the frontal passage, as drier air has become entrained into the system. The best chances will be across southeastern Connecticut and Long Island where there has been some degree of moisture pooling. Skies will clear tonight which is supported by the upstream satellite picture. Temperatures were a blend of guidance which was in good agreement. A moderate rip current risk remains for the rest of today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will produce fair weather. Despite the cold frontal passage, high temperatures will be several degrees above average with temperatures at 850 millibars around 16 to 17 C. Decoupling at night however may allow some of the normally coldest outlying locations to drop into the upper 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models continue to be in good agreement for the the long term period. This period begins with weak surface high pressure off the New England coast Sunday. Another sunny day for Sunday although onshore flow will limit mixing...especially at the coast with slightly lower max temps. Highs across urbanized NY/NY and areas N and W should range from mid to upper 80s...with lower to mid 80s common at the coast. Aloft, a ridge will build in while an anticyclone is centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. Surface cold front approaches the area late Sunday night, and slowly moves through the region Monday as the upper level anticyclone weakens over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S. The front will be moisture starved and looks to undergo frontolysis after it moves through Monday night. Best chances for precipitation this week will be with the cold fronts moving through the area, though chances won`t be very high. The weakening cold front Monday into Tuesday will be associated with a couple of vorticity maxes and upper level trough. The cold front for Wednesday into Wednesday night is also moisture starved, so the chances for precipitation will once again not be very high. Thereafter, surface high pressure moves in through the end of the week. Temperatures through the week should average above normal with not much in the way of cold air advection behind these weak fronts. Cooler air will finally move in for Friday however, as an upper level trough sets up over the Northeast beginning Wednesday in association with upper level low developing over southeastern Canada. It will also be on the humid side through much of the week, but not oppressively so. Dew points will be in the 60s to near 70 at times, but start to decrease on Thursday after the passage of the second cold front, and continue to drop into the 50s on Friday with as dry northwesterly sets up. In fact, went a couple of degrees below guidance for Friday and Friday night in regards to dew points as the models are probably overdoing the dew points with the northwesterly set up.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Wind has shifted to N-NW at all NYC terminals. Wind will shift to the NW across eastern areas later this afternoon. A few gusts to 25kt are possible. Winds will then continue to veer around to the N- NE tonight at less than 10 kt at all terminal locations. There is a good chance of a sea breeze developing for KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON after 16z on Saturday. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... .Saturday through Sunday...VFR. .Monday into Monday Night...VFR. Potential cold frontal passage with a few showers and thunderstorms. .Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Seas on the ocean were running about 4 ft, so wavewatch has been bumped up through this evening. Winds and seas however will remain below small craft advisory levels through Saturday. Sub-advy conds prevail sUNDAY through the day Monday. 5 ft seas develop over the eastern ocean zone late in the day Tuesday. The potential remains for increasing tropical swell on the ocean Sunday through at least Tuesday. As a result...seas could build to 5-6 ft from late Monday through Tuesday night. Waves come down below 5 ft for Thursday onward.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible into this evening across Long Island and eastern Connecticut. Otherwise it will be dry through Saturday. No significant widespread precipitation is expected thereafter.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...IRD MARINE...JMC/JP HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP

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