Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171730 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE DUE TO SW FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT VIA LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SAT AS THIS WAA AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT WELL INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY MARK ITS PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING W AND INCREASING... WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S SHOULD RISE TO 65-70 SAT AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL EAST SAT NIGHT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...BUT MAIN IMPACT FELT WILL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SHOT OF CAA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER AND MID 50S...WITH NW WINDS 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST/FREEZE CONDS LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. TEMPS THERE COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLY ENOUGH AND CIRRUS DOES NOT BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS AND DRY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE MID THRU LATE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN EXACTLY WHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF...BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF. THIS ALL HAS IMPLICATIONS ON LOCATION OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON THE REGION. DESPITE THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTIES...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AND FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED AS SUCH. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. VFR. WSW-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. SSW FLOW TNGT BUT SPEEDS BLW 10KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SAT PM-SUNDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. .MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. && .MARINE... SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-10 FT SAT AFTERNOON IN TO SUNDAY VIA A COMBO OF SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS FLOW SHIFTS NW AND PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE. A RETURN TO SCA CONDS IS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW/S...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JC MARINE...GOODMAN/NV HYDROLOGY...NV

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