Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291614 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1214 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION BUILDS SOUTH AND MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA...CAN EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMAL. WEAK NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW LATE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... WEAK WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW IS ACTIVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND A WINTRY MIX WILL BE LIKELY AT THE START. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY WITH THE COLDER AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL LIQUID. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY MONDAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS EARLY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BY MONDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING ENDED AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY. VFR. FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE SW BY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT CIGS REMAIN VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA. && .MARINE...
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NW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT AND BACK TO THE SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SEAS WILL AVERAGE 5-6 FT...SO WILL KEEP SCA UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS FLOW INCREASES EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...DW MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MET

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