Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211938 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front settles near or just south of the area tonight and Wednesday before moving back as a warm front Wednesday night. Low pressure moves across the region on Thursday. High pressure builds in from the north and west starting on Friday, and will remain over the region into the start of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Through the evening, still watching any mid level weak vorts rounding the base of the upper trough. Weak low pressure may develop along the front, remaining in the vicinity of NYC metro. Surface based instability will remain weak to marginal along the coast. A pop up shower or thunderstorm is possible into this evening, but believe any convection will diminish overnight. Partly cloudy skies along with seasonably warm temps are forecast for tonight. Temps should range from the 50s across the interior to the upper 60s in and around NYC metro. Included patchy fog late tonight for eastern Long Island per mos and latest Narre. There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip current development at Atlantic beaches into the evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Potent shortwave passes to the north Wednesday, and any shower associated with it should remain north as well. Otherwise, frontal boundary remains in the vicinity, with ridging building briefly during the afternoon and evening. Generally expect conditions to remain dry, with too much dry air to overcome for spotty shower development. Weak subsidence expected anyway behind the vort. High temps in the 80s expected Wednesday. By Wednesday night, upstream shortwave that passes over the ridge will track toward the Great Lakes region. Sfc low pressure approaches and a warm front will approach as well. Clouds increase and temps remain in the 50s and 60s per mos.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Warm front extending from low pressure over the Great Lakes lifts north through the region Thursday morning. PWATs will rise to 1.75-2 inches with southerly flow behind the warm front and ahead of the low. Although the bulk of the instability looks to remain to the south and west of the CWA per the latest GFS, still expecting convection to develop across the region. Will follow latest guidance and keep likely POPs in the forecast for Thursday as that low moves across the region. Precip tapers off Thursday night as the low departs. High pressure begins to build in from the north and west on Friday and will remain in place through the weekend before moving offshore during the day Monday. Temps will gradually warm to above normal levels through the weekend, with temperatures rising through the 80s, possibly approaching 90 in some inland areas by Monday. Cold front approaches on Tuesday. Will carry low chance POPs for now for precip associated with it.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak high pressure remains in place with a stationary front across the terminal area. VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms starting 22-00Z, primarily over the city terminals, KTEB and KISP. Chances are too low for mention in the TAFs. WNW to WSW winds around 10KT outside of sea breezes. See comments below. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20kt possible. KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze may have winds closer to 200-180 magnetic through 23-00z. KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence with sea breeze advancement. Winds could end up W to WSW for the rest of the day. If sea breeze passes through, SSE winds could occur - if this were to happen, it would most likely occur after around 22-23z. KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence with sea breeze advancement. Winds could end up W to WSW for the rest of the day. If sea breeze passes through, S winds could occur - if this were to happen, it would most likely occur after around 23-00z. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday...VFR. WNW gusts 20-25KT. .Wednesday night...Chance MVFR in showers late. .Thursday...MVFR, showers, chance tstms. .Friday-Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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As a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the waters tonight through Wednesday, expect winds to remain relatively light, or 15 kts or less. As such, no marine headlines expected, with the exception of the eastern ocean waters. Analysis of latest wave guidance, along with observations well to the south shows southerly swells moving in Wednesday. As such, seas build to 5 feet for the waters east of Fire Island Inlet. Will issue a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas. Low pressure passes through the waters Thursday and departs Thursday night. Eastern ocean seas may briefly build to 5 ft in its wake on Friday. High pressure builds in from the north and west for the weekend, resulting in tranquil conditions.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Generally dry conditions are expected tonight through Wednesday, other than an isolated shower or thunderstorm into this evening near the coast. No hydrologic concerns through Wednesday. A widespread rainfall of around 1/2 inch is likely Thursday into Thursday night. Depending on the track of the low, and depending on where convection develops, QPF totals could be as high as 1 inch in localized areas. Dry conditions are then expected Friday through Monday.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW

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