Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281119 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 719 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE...MAINLY FOR TEMPERATURES...TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE AND BY THIS AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PARENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO THAT WILL HAVE AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA. THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV/ECS AND ADDED 1-2 DEGREES BASED ON UPSTREAM BIASES THE PREVIOUS DAY IN HANDLING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS IS INDICATED TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN FOG. THE COVERAGE IS SCATTERED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS USED FOR THE FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60. THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS MORE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COULD BE ENTERING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS COASTS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE FROM THE ECS MOS GUIDANCE AND YIELD A RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WED NIGHT. ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTREME ERN LI AND CT SHOULD BE DRY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CHANCES ACROSS THESE ERN AREAS END QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRI. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FAIR AND SEASONAL THU THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FOR NOW...SOME LGT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILL UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AGAIN THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LGT AT THIS TIME. LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO RESULT IN ONLY NW FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TOO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST IS A 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF SUN. CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOW BELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. DRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY MID MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT ALL BUT KSWF - STARTING ALONG LONG ISLAND SOUND BY LATE MORNING/AROUND MIDDAY THEN MID-LATE AFTERNOON FOR LONG ISLAND/CITY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE THAT SEABREEZE BRINGS WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10KT AT KJFK/KLGA. ALSO LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WITH THE SEABREEZE AT KJFK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KLGA AND KJFK WHERE RETURN TO SSW AT UNDER 10 KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE DIRECTION...COULD BE OFF +/- 20-30 DEGREES. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE DIRECTION...COULD BE OFF +/- 20-30 DEGREES. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ONSET/OFFSET OF SEABREEZE COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHRA. G15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WSW WINDS SHIFT TO NW WED NIGHT. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA/ -SHRA/-SHSN FAR W/N TERMINALS. N-NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE. .SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE -RA/-SN. N-NE WIND G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THEN SCA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE OCEAN. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOR SEAS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY HANDLING WAVE HEIGHTS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND COMPARED TO BUOY OBS PRETTY WELL OVERALL. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST WITH THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/JMC NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JM/JMC HYDROLOGY...JM/JMC

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