Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 140840 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 440 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE PRESSURE CHANGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS INITIALLY...BUT THESE WINDS ABATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND SUBSIDENCE WILL YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK TO FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS PER MOS NUMBERS AND FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS BY LATE DAY MONDAY AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES AS WELL. HOWEVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO RADIATE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE MERCURY MAY VERY WELL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS. SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 70 DEGREES...OR INTO THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...THESE EXPECTED HIGHS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION SENDS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND... THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE MORNING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS FRONT HAS DECENT UPPER SUPPORT...BUT NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO LOOKING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL REINFORCE THE DRY...COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. USED A BLEND OF WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY AND REMAINS THRU MON. VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG AT THE OUTLYING ARPTS TIL 12Z. THE PROB TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. LIGHTENING N WINDS BECOMING VRB DURING THE AFTN WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE COMPONENT FLOW AT TIMES. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUN NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR IN -RA LIKELY. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WINDS IN GENERAL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TODAY AS THE HIGH NEARS THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE MORNING AND ANOTHER LATE WED INTO THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND EACH COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD REACH THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. UNDERCUT THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT AS SWELLS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/4 TO 1/3 OF AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...DW/PW AVIATION...JMC MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...PW

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