Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 172153 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 453 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves through the area tonight, with a warm front moving across the northeast by Saturday morning as the high moves east. A weak surface trough moves through the area Saturday night, followed by a cold front Sunday night. High pressure builds Monday through Tuesday. A warm front will approach Tuesday night followed by a weak cold front becoming nearly stationary just south of the area Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A few gusts are lingering across the area this afternoon on the back side of a departing area of low pressure. As high pressure builds across the region tonight and the pressure gradient begins to relax, these gusts will gradually subside. West- northwest flow along with increasing subsidence has led to slightly warmer temperatures than originally forecast, but overall highs today are seasonable. Overnight, an upper jet streak will move through the area, with associated mid and upper-level high clouds briefly increasing. Potential cloud cover and a return to southerly flow and weak warm advection should lead to slightly warmer temperatures than last night. Overnight temperatures will be a few degrees above climatological normals. After examining verification for the previous 7 days, have edged on the warmer side of guidance for minimum temperatures tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures will be mild following a weak warm frontal passage in the morning as southerly/southwesterly flow continues. Expect highs to be 10-15 degrees above climatological normals, with any morning cloud cover quickly moving east and clearing out by afternoon. A weak surface trough moves through Saturday afternoon/evening with no real appreciable change in conditions other than a slight wind shift to a more westerly direction. Winds should remain elevated overnight, maintaining mixing and along with subsidence on the back side of the trough will act to keep minimum temperatures well above climatological normals. Despite lingering moisture, have discounted deterministic model solutions chance of stratus beneath the inversion overnight, as any subsidence and a return to offshore/downslope winds should hinder significant cloud development. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sunday...As a weak northern stream short wave moves east of the area a higher amplitude short wave will move off the southeast coast, taking the rain with it. WNW downsloping winds and full sun will cause temps to rise between 50 and 60 degrees, about 15 degrees above normal. Sunday Night thru Tuesday...A canadian high pressure system will move southeast down a high amplitude upstream ridge causing cooler temps with highs in the 40s Monday and Tuesday and lows in the 20s and low 30s Monday Night. Tuesday Night thru the day Wednesday...will bring our next chc for a light "mainly" rain event between the retreating high and approaching short wave trough. Most likely rainfall amounts one tenth to one quarter inch. Areas of light freezing rain possible for a few hours across the far northern zones, including interior southern CT. Thursday and Friday...with more sun on Thu, temps once again are forecast between 50 and 60 degrees, near 15 degrees above normal on a light W flow. As low pressure approaches friday with more cloud cover and a light onshore flow, temps are fcst mainly in the upper 40s and low 50s, still above normal values. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR as a high pressure ridge slides across from the west. A warm front will pass through late tonight into Sat morning. Winds mostly from 290-300 true direction at 10-15 kt with some gusts to near 20 kt. Gusts subside early this evening. High confidence in winds diminishing tonight and then backing SW late. As the warm front passes through there could be some lower clouds Sat morning. TAF shows only SCT attm but will have to watch for brief BKN030 or BKN035. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Winds may occasionally back left of 300 true/310 mag before this evening during lulls. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds may occasionally back left of 300 true/310 mag before this evening during lulls. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds may occasionally veer right of 300 true/310 mag before this evening during gusts. KTEB TAF Comments: A few gusts to 20 kt possible before 23Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of when winds become light and variable may be 1-2 hours off. KISP TAF Comments: Winds may occasionally gust to 20 kt before 00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 22Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Late Saturday afternoon-Sunday afternoon...VFR. .Sunday night-Monday...VFR. NW winds right of 310 mag 10-15kt with gusts 15-20kt. .Monday night through Tuesday evening...VFR. .Late Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR possible in rain showers.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas have subsided across the Eastern Sound and Bays and New York Harbor and will continue to do so as high pressure builds across the area. As such, the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. For the remaining ocean waters, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until this evening. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions then prevail tonight through tomorrow with a high pressure ridge and weak pressure gradient shifting through. Winds then pick up again Saturday night into Sunday with the approach and passage of a cold front, but with winds and seas likely remaining below advisory criteria. Following the cold frontal passage and as canadian high pressure builds southeast across the area, a Small Craft Advisory/SCA is possible across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters south of Long Island Sunday night and Monday as NW winds range from 15-20 kt with occasional gusts near 25 kt and seas build to around 4 feet. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days as any snow melt will be gradual. The next light "mainly" rainfall between one tenth and 1/4 inch is forecast between a retreating high pressure system and an approaching low Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC NEAR TERM...MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...GC/MD HYDROLOGY...MD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.