Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 012336 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 736 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY AS OF 22Z. NOT MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG IT...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ATMOSPHERE AS A WHOLE HAS BEEN DRYING OUT BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM THIS MORNING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK. FEEL THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOWERING CAPE VALUES AND DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE HIGHEST CAPE IS LOCATED ACROSS SE CT...WHERE ABOUT 500 J/KG EXISTS. EVEN THIS HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE MARITIME INFLUENCE TAKES OVER FROM ONSHORE FLOW. AN ISO SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU. EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND MID 80S. FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W-NW AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRB BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. .FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE OR E. .SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. && .MARINE... SEAS AT 44017 HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TO 5 FT...BUT RECENT OBS SHOW SEAS BUILDING WITH A 2-3 FT SWELL AND S-SW FLOW JUST OVER 15 KT. STILL FEEL SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5 FT E OF MORICHES INLET. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THERE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MPS MARINE...GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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