Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 100528 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1228 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE NEW 00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL HIGH RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDE THE HIRES NAM...HRRR...EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...AND RAP ARE ONLY INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE A MEAN SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THE CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS JUST SOME FLURRIES BEING REPORTED. HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND TO 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH IT COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO AN INCH THERE. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THE POSSIBILITY MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY A RECEIVES COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH. THE LOCAL AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND ONE ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE LONG ISLAND. A MESO HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IS HELPING TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN VORTICITY ADVECTION AS A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE AT H5...AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THINKING IS THIS H5 SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT NEARS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. DRY CONDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT -25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN. AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE TIMES IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW THAT VISIBILITIES BECOME IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. AS THE SNOW ENDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY 5 TO 10 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE GUSTS SUBSIDE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN... .LATE WED NIGHT...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. .THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT. .FRI...VFR. .SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT. && .MARINE... FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK. SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS: STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14 NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979).... LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979).... JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979).... ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987).... EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979).... BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979).... *IN 1979 AS WELL && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-078-081-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ350- 353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...MPS/DS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...BC/MET MARINE...MPS/DS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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