Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201937 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 337 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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STILL SEEING BKN STRATOCU OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OUT OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD START STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD EVENING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW OFF THE GA COAST...AND AS A SHOT OF LOW- MID LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS...THERE SHOULD BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE FOCUS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE...AS NAM/GFS WERE WERE TOO FAR WEST WITH EXTENT OF ONGOING PRECIP OFF THE DELMARVA...WHILE THE EARLIER SREF/ECMWF HANDLED THINGS A LITTLE BETTER THERE INITIALLY BUT STILL FCST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO TONIGHT INSTEAD OF A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST.. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BECOME HIGH WITH STRENGTHENING SE WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON- TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND. HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY MONDAY. A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY VFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE CEILINGS DOWN AROUND 3000-3500 FT THROUGH 21Z AT KLGA/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE RESTRICTED IFR TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. SSE-SE FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE WINDS MORE SW-SSW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS CONTINUE AS SUCH SUNDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR...WITH ISOLD -SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE. .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR SCA CONDS TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN AS SE FLOW PERSISTS AND GETS A LITTLE STRONGER. RIGHT NOW THINK WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET

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