Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280249 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1049 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST MONDAY NIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE AREA HAS BECOME MORE STABLE...BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. ALSO SHEAR HAS WEAKENED. BEST AREA APPEARS TO BE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THINKING IS STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS AREA MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED THE GUSTY WIND AND HAIL FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NE WITH BEST FORCING/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LIFTING N AND E...BRINGING AN END TO THE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING NORTH AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN. BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER AND DIURNAL SCT-NUM SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL HEATING...AS WELL AS ALONG AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AFT/EVE. GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HAZARDS IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA MON EVE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LINGERING CHC FOR PCPN OVER SOUTHERN CT/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FIRST HALF OF MON NIGHT AS SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING THE BEST FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING VORT MAX SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PUSH JUST SOUTH ENOUGH TO ASSIST IN PROLONGING ANY PCPN THAT DEVELOPED LATE IN THE DAY. BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ON THE WEAKER SIDE BY 00Z TUES...SO LOOKING FOR MORE ISO-SCT SHOWERS WITH A LOW END CHC OF A TSTM. BY 06Z...PCPN SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH ANY FORCING AT BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT NOW EXITING THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL ALSO HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY FLOODING THREAT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN...COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TOWARD 04Z. STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM 05Z SOUTH AND WEST TO 09Z TO 12Z NORTH AND EAST. AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO CONNECTICUT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10KT TO 15KT TONIGHT INCREASES MONDAY UP TO 15KT TO 20KT...WITH GUSTS 25KT TO 30KT. WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE LOW AND FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .MON NIGHT-THU...VFR. .FRI...VFR. ISO SHRA/TSTM. && .MARINE... FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MARGINAL SCA WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE WATERS IN WAKE OF FRONT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...5-7 FT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES MORNING. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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