Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201050 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 650 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST INITIAL CONDITIONS. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER LAND AREAS...WHILE THERE IS BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE BEYOND 20 MILES SOUTH OF LI. A WEAKENING UPPER TROF LIFTING ACROSS THE NE TODAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN A BRIEF SHOWER THIS MORNING. BY NO MEANS WILL THIS BE A WASHOUT WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE E/NE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...LOOKING AT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR NEARLY LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROF AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SUN FOR MON WITH WITH TEMPS MODERATING JUST A TAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MON MORNING...TO MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 60S TUE MORNING. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SET OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THE AIRMASS BEING CAPPED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE WED INTO THU. THE DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW SEEM TO HINGE ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. E-NE WINDS 4-8 KT THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO 4-8 KT TONIGHT. VFR. THERE ARE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND NYC. CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR IN THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT-TUE...VFR. LGT SFC WND. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY METRO LATE TUE AFTN. .WED...VFR. SCT OF AFTN TSTMS WEST OF KHVN-KISP. .WED NGT...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS. .THU...SLOW COLD FROPA. MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA/TSTMS. && .MARINE... E-NE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY AND 5-10 KT AT NIGHT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI BAYS. SUB-SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JP/DW AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...DW

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