Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 262219 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 619 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Increased winds in the city due to the weak barrier jet. Otherwise the forecast was on track. Deep ridging remains over the region tonight with the western periphery of the Bermuda high across the region. There was a very weak surface trough across the Lower Hudson Valley, however, surface based and mixed CAPE remains limited across the region. Also limiting convection was lack shortwave energy. A shortwave does move into the ridge late tonight, however, at that time Cape and instability are very limited. Will still carry slight chance pops across the lower Hudson Valley into this evening with areal wording of the possibility of isolated thunderstorms.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Bermuda high pressure and upper ridging remains across the region Friday and Friday night. Heights will be rising through the period. Again a weak surface trough develops across the lower Hudson Valley Friday afternoon. Instability and CAPE will be higher than Thursday and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible inland. Will keep pops at chance, and only a little higher than Thursday. Friday and Friday night will be more humid than Thursday as low level moisture is transported into the region on return flow. Dew points will be rising into the mid 60s, resulting in higher relative humidity levels with afternoon highs similar to Thursdays. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the Atlantic beaches Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. There is a change of some showers/thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evening...mostly across areas north and west of New York City. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday afternoon, then moves across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As a result expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this period. Dry weather returns on Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures Monday through Thursday will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will start out in the lower 60s making it feel a bit muggy but, will drop down into the 50s by mid week. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Persistence forecast the next 24 hours with high pressure over the Western Atlantic and a thermal trough inland each afternoon. This will result in mainly VFR conditions and a southerly flow with local seabreeze enhancements. An isolated thunderstorm is possible each afternoon/evening, but primarily north and west of the NYC terminals. Chances remain too low to mention in TAFs. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Friday through Tuesday... .Friday afternoon-Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in mainly isolated showers and evening thunderstorms. .Monday and Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the waters tonight through Friday night. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels into Friday night. Southerly winds do increase somewhat Friday afternoon into the evening as the pressure gradient force increases, and ocean seas may approach small craft levels at that time. Expect small craft advisory level conditions across the area waters Saturday through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible inland this evening and again Friday afternoon and evening. No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. Although widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with the passage of a cold front Monday and Tuesday, widespread flooding is not expected at this time. Localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible from heavier downpours. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/MET NEAR TERM...JMC/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...DW MARINE...FIG/MET HYDROLOGY...FIG/MET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.