Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 250601 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 201 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL END UP NEAR CAPE COD BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM -3C TO -5C...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WILL RADIATE QUITE WELL...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS THERE. AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. THAT LOW WILL ALSO CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH...IT MAY KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. BUT THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND THEN TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DEEP...NEAR FULL LATITUDE...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITES STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND TROUGH HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS FOR THE PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY. WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING OF 50 KT TO 60 KT. IN ADDITION THERE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL JET. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SURFACE CAPE OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT ALL LIQUID AS THE COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BECOME IFR AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THU. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SE- SSE WINDS 10KT OR LESS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF GUSTS AROUND 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TO 10-15 KT AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT. WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME GUSTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST TO SMALL CRAFT THEN DIMINISH BELOW. IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS/STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS. THEREAFTER...AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL AND MILD TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET NEAR TERM...BC/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JP MARINE...MPS/MET HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET

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