Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 130531 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 131 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS FROM LATE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND RESULTING RH AND PATCHY FOG WERE MADE WITHIN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER LAND WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PATCHY FOG TO BE RESTRICTED TO THOSE AREAS RADIATIVELY COOLING MORE AND ACROSS THE WATERS ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS SOME COASTAL AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND IF LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. ALOFT...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED. SURFACE AND H8 WARM FRONT REMAIN NORTH...AND DRIFT FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... RISING HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EAST COAST AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AREA REMAINS WARM SECTORED. THESE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY WATER WILL RESULT IN LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREADS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER AS HIGH RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM INDICATE. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SUNDAY...WITH EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK. TEMPS GET PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AS YOU HEAD WEST TOWARD NYC...NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SW CT. AS LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING ACROSS AND TO THE EAST LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS OVER LAND RISING INTO THE 50S WHILE OCEAN TEMPS REMAIN IN THE CHILLY LOWER AND MID 40S...WILL LEAD TO ADVECTION FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY MON AM...THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF... TEMPS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WELL INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES. DO NOT EXPECT LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH POP INCREASING TO LIKELY NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ON TUE AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES INTO THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING BRIEFLY TO SNOW. WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FCST WED INTO THU ESPECIALLY FOR SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...IN CASE ANY SUBSEQUENT WAVES DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDS THROUGHOUT THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS...THEN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYS SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT. TEMPS WED-THU SHOULD BE BELOW AVG...THEN SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO AVG FRI INTO SAT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST. VFR THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...KJFK...DEVELOPING AROUND 02Z. MARGINAL VFR VISIBILITIES AT KLGA TOWARD 06Z. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGHER GUSTS...20 TO 25 KT...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO BE FREQUENT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MON...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. S WINDS 15-25KT. .MON NGT-TUE...IFR LIKELY WITH RAIN AND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. .WED...VFR. .THU...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT BY LATE DAY OR AT NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR MARINERS TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING. SCA HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT NOT FOR THE SHELTERED WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND AS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THERE IS STILL TOO LOW ATTM. AN EXTENDED PD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED VIA PERSISTENT S FLOW MON INTO TUE EVENING...THEN AS PERSISTENT NE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE LATER THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF GALES MAINLY ON THE OCEAN JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...ALSO BRIEF SCA CONDS ON THE ERN SOUND/BAYS DURING THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL COME FROM TUE INTO TUE EVENING. MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED LOWER...BUT STILL THINK RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/LN/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...MET MARINE...GOODMAN/PW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW

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