Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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979 FXUS61 KOKX 241142 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 742 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front and low pressure moves across the area this morning. High pressure builds to our southwest Sunday into Monday. A weak cold front will move through our area later Monday. High pressure builds towards the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving offshore Thursday. Unsettled weather returns for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Collab with WPC and SPC this busy morning. Near term concerns / nowcast focused on convection moving through the area, with far western locations now tapering off. Showers/tstms passing through before noon in eastern zones. Urban flooding is a concern across NE NJ, and NYC metro. Warm rainfall processes, and accum rates likely to out perform model data. Limiting factor is short duration, fast movement. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour, with overall QPF up to an inch, locally higher. Monitoring for isolated gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. Once this activity passes, westerly flow and sunshine will allow temps to rise quickly, with 80s to near 90 anticipated. Best chance of 90 will be for NYC Metro and NE New Jersey. Leaned toward or even edged higher end of guidance slightly. There is a moderate risk for rip current development today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... For tonight, a secondary cold front moves across which will result in winds becoming more northerly late after its passage. Dry conditions, light winds and continued mostly clear conditions will result in radiational cooling. A vast range of lows will be seen in the region from upper 50s in rural inland sections to lower 70s in parts of NYC from the MET guidance. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry conditions expected on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds towards the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect high temperatures to be in the low to mid 80s on Sunday. A weak surface cold front will affect the local area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The system will not have a great deal of moisture associated with it, but cooler temperatures aloft may spark off a shower or t-storm late Monday into early Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure continues to build towards the area on Wednesday and slowly moves offshore on Friday. A few showers are possible Friday afternoon. Temperatures will start out in the upper 70s to near 80 on Wednesday then slowly increase to mid to upper 80s by Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A line of showers now spreading across city terminals and exits quickly this morning. The main concern with any heavier showers early this morning is for locally heavy rain which can lower visibilities down to IFR over the next hour or two. Front timing appears to be sped up a bit, so have adjusted wind shift and end of showers up. Winds will switch to west, then briefly just north of west with frontal passage which should be around 12-13z for city terminals. VFR for the remainder of the TAF period after front passes. For a brief time for the late morning and early afternoon winds may go closer to just north of west (close to 300 or 310 magnetic). Winds gust to around 20 KT for city terminals until 22z or thereabout. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night-Sunday Night...VFR. NW wind early Saturday night, otherwise West wind through Sunday night. .Monday-Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of shra/tsra Monday afternoon, and a chance of shra/tsra on Tuesday. .Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Rough ocean condition s are expected today into tonight. Gusty south to southwest, then west winds expected. Seas remain elevated before subsiding tonight. Sub SCA winds on non-ocean waters are expected through tonight. Conditions across the area waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... The threat for minor urban and poor drainage flooding with localized flash flooding continues this morning. Total rain expected is 0.5 to 1 inch with locally higher amounts. With tropical moisture from the remnants of Cindy getting entrained along the front, heavy rain likely this morning. There are no hydrologic impacts expected Sunday and through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the evening high tide cycles. Less than 1 ft of surge is needed during these evening high tide cycles for minor flooding, and in some cases less then 1/2 ft. The expected S/SW flow is not favorable for surge, but a background anomaly will likely be enough for minor coastal flooding of the most vulnerable coastal locales along the south shore bays of Western Long Island, along Jamaica Bay, and along western Long Island Sound during this time. && .EQUIPMENT... KOKX weather radar is scheduled for maintenance starting today June 23rd for a period of 3 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JE MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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