Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251804 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 204 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS ANTICIPATED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HAVE DISSIPATED. LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS...HAVE RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES..INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. A GUSTY W/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 KT. EXPECT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 KT TO NEAR 30 KT. CIGS COULD BECOME BROKEN FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SUN-TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON SUN-SUN EVE...HIGHEST NYC METRO. .WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA. .THU...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$

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