Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 041948 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 348 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND THEN DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION. NE FLOW WILL PUSH DRIER AIR DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NYC TO THE 50S IN MOST SUBURBS. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES AS SEAS BUILD AND LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. NE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LIKELY GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS DUE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL LIE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH...WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND 1000-500MB HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 17-19C WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING A HEAT WAVE (3 OR MORE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90 OR GREATER) ACROSS NYC...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING ONE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY IS NOT FORECAST TO GET ABOVE 90 IN THE METRO AREA...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN 1 HEAT WAVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH AND ACCORDING TO LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY OF CENTRAL PARK FROM 1876-2011...ONLY ABOUT 4% OF HEAT WAVES OCCUR IN SEPTEMBER. ADDITIONAL LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWS THAT THE MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING A 3-DAY HEAT WAVE ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE SECOND DAY BEING THE WARMEST. GIVEN LESS SOLAR INSOLATION THAN IN AUGUST...WOULD THINK THAT WE WOULD NOT GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S...92 OR 93...DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS HAS BEEN AN UNUSUALLY WARM SUMMER. DESPITE THE WARM CONDITIONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AS HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY SO. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER. KBDI VALUES ARE BETWEEN 400 AND 600 ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...TRANSLATING TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30S...MAINLY ACROSS NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MIN RH VALUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER AND MORE AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL SEE RH VALUES IN THE 30S AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE MODELS THEREAFTER WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION ... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ENE-E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE REMAINS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE DIRECTION WILL BE ESE AT KJFK/KEWR/KBDR/KHPN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BEGIN TO BACK TO THE ENE THIS EVENING. GUSTS 18-20 KT ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT CITY TERMINALS. ANY GUSTS ABATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10KT OR LESS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. NE-ENE FLOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VEERING TO THE SE WITH SEA BREEZES EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR THROUGH 22Z. GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR THROUGH 22Z. GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR THROUGH 22Z. DIRECTION MAY VARY BETWEEN 080-130 TRUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR THROUGH 22Z. GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS WILL GUST 25-30KT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE BUT AT DECREASING SPEEDS ON SATURDAY. SEAS CURRENTLY 4- 5FT PER RECENT BUOY OBS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE 5-6FT RANGE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...PEAKING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT TODAY...AND EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR NW ZONES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35-40 PERCENT INLAND ON SATURDAY TO 40-45 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GS/JP NEAR TERM...GS SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DS MARINE...GS/JP FIRE WEATHER...GS/MPS HYDROLOGY...JC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.