Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270901 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 401 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN TROUGH PREDOMINATES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH...IN TANDEM WITH SFC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY. TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 30S TODAY REMAINING QUITE CHILLY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE WITH FORECAST PROFILES AND EXPECTED 2 METER TEMPS TODAY. THESE EXPECTED TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...REPLACED BY A GENERAL FLAT NW TO SE FLOW. SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH IN TIME. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL END AS THE FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS NORTH. PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY PER MOS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVELS DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS INTO TONIGHT ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BACK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN SETTLE IN AROUND 310 TRUE...AROUND 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT...BECOMING VFR. .FRI-SAT NIGHT...VFR. .SUN-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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AT 08Z THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE LOW MOVING AWAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WAS QUICKLY WEAKENING. AS A RESULT WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...INTO PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. THEREAFTER...THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...AND SUBSIDING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY ON THE SOUND...AND LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...MET MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...PW

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