Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221106 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 706 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PASSES EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING...SO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS AND ALSO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. 700 AND 500 HPA SHORTWAVES ARE MORE DISJOINTED IN THEIR PASSAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE W PORTION OF THE CWA...SO FOCUS CHANCE POPS THERE...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER FAR E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ZERO ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA...SO HAVE ISOLD THUNDER IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA THERE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT BEST BKN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH AT MOST OCCASIONAL PEAKS OF SUN. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT...THEN PUSHES TO THE S SATURDAY. DO RESTRICT POPS THIS EVENING MAINLY TO THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA - AS THIS IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE HAVE ANY FORECAST INSTABILITY - ONCE AGAIN MAINLY ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCE FALL OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE DISCARDED AS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. DO EXPECT SHRA TO RETURN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FINAL VORTICITY LOBE RIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH ONCE AGAIN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EVEN WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SE CANADA. EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE DRY AS A RESULT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS YIELDS VALUES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METERS. EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY ON WITH LARGE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FLATTENING AND GIVING WAY TO UPSTREAM TROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF THE RIDGE. TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PASSES THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG. HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THRU CT THRU 12Z. MAINLY MVFR...HOWEVER AREAS OF VFR AT TIMES. TSTMS WILL REMAIN SE OF ALL TERMINALS THIS MRNG. CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT TODAY...SO BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR IS LIKELY. SOLID MVFR EXPECTED TNGT. SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE RAIN THRU THIS MRNG...BECOMING AROUND 100 TRUE THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHT BACKING TO AROUND 080 TRUE EXPECTED TNGT. SPEEDS GENERALLY BLW 12KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY TO BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR THRU AT LEAST 15Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY TO BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR THRU AT LEAST 15Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY TO BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR THRU AT LEAST 15Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY TO BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR THRU AT LEAST 15Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .TNGT...MVFR WITH ENE FLOW. .SAT...BECOMING VFR WITH ENE FLOW. .SUN-TUE...VFR. && .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. FOR NOW FORECASTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER A PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD POSSIBLY BUILDS SEAS TO AT LEAST 5 FT BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS ONLY REACHING 4 FT...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SEAS ULTIMATELY BEING 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THIS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND RATHER TRANQUIL SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... FORECASTING GENERALLY 1/3 AN INCH OR LESS WITH ANY SHRA/TSTMS THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JMC MARINE...MALOIT/PW HYDROLOGY...MALOIT

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