Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 310640 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 240 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES...WINDS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUDS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. WITH A SLOWER MOVING FRONT AND ABUNDANT LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE WITH UPPER 50S FOR SOME OF THE INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 06Z COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR KBAF TO KDXR TO KSMQ AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY ESE. TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH NYC TERMINALS BY 08Z LOOKS REASONABLE...SO MAINTAINED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT THAT TIME. PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE THROUGH MORNING...EVEN POST-FRONTAL...OUTSIDE OF THE METRO WITH MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10KT) UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN RESULTING IN BACKING OF WINDS TO THE W. TIMING OF THIS MAY BE 1-2 HOURS TOO EARLY. GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE AFTN...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY ATTM WITH A DECENT SYNOPTIC FLOW. GUIDANCE WAS TOO WEAK WITH WINDS ALOFT YESTERDAY AND IF THAT IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IT AT KBDR AND HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY AT KJFK/KGON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR. .MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. .TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W. && .MARINE... THE SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 4 FT AND WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 25 KT GUST CRITERIA. TRANQUIL CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/DS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...24 MARINE...JM/MPS/DS HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS

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