Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 112129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER WILL PASS TO
THE E BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NE
AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT...SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY WITH GUSTY W/NW WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY
EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND
THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO
THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET
SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN
SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE
TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.

A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL
TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN
THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES OR BELOW.
WIND CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...COLDEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN
RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH
COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.

VFR. CHC -SHSN UNTIL 22Z WITH BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO 3-5SM.

WNW WINDS...PREVAILING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS:OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 31-34KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
GUSTS AROUND 35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON ALL WATERS BUT MAY NEED TO BE
DROPPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW GALES
DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER.

ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS
WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI
NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
CLIMATE...JM


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