Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 210306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1106 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS. ACROSS THE NYC METRO REGION LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS PAC AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE.
MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION...WITH ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGED ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RESULTANT PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION TUE NIGHT...WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES LYING IN AMOUNT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY HANGING BACK LATE TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING WITH
SECONDARY TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH.

EXPECTATION IS FOR INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES EVE/NIGHT. FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TUES NIGHT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WED MORNING WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT RAIN EVENT...WITH IMPROVING CONDS WED AFT.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF NEXT TROUGH FOR END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND.
A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A PAC CLOSED LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY IS RESULTING IN MODEL SPREAD IN STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS TROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS EITHER AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONTS AFFECTS THE REGION.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THEN SEASONABLE
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
SEA BREEZE WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY...TIMING COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS
AT COASTAL TERMINALS. SPEEDS COULD BE 10-12KT AT KEWR IF SEABREEZE
MAKES IT THERE AFT 19Z. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTS DEVELOP WITH THE
SEABREEZE BUT NOT CONFIDENT SO NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON AFTN-TUE MORNING...VFR.
.TUE AFTN-WED MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WED AFTN...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE THU AFTN.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN AFTN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT WIND
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA. SUB SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA
WATERS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED INTO THU.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LATE THU INTO THU
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION...CONTINUING INTO
FRI. THEN POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS FOR THE WEEKEND DEPENDS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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