Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 220133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
933 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
JUST TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS LARGELY REMAINED OFFSHORE. THE ONLY AREA
THAT WILL SEE ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH FORK OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW
TO SEE IF THE HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR...GIVEN WHAT LITTLE HAS FALLEN ALREADY.

THE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA HAS GROWN IN
COVERAGE...MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE HRRR. SO...CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
REACHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY SE CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
LIGHT...WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...TO POSSIBLY TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 40S...EXCEPT THE NYC METRO...WHERE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH APPROACHES
WHICH WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF OR WITH THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF. A GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEST FLOW AND BRIEF WARM AIR ADVECTION TOMORROW...WILL RESULT IN
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75
DEGREE RANGE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO NEAR OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG LEVELS BY SUNDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND RETURN SW FLOW SETS UP...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

TIMING OF A WARM FRONTAL APPROACH AND ITS EVENTUAL PASSAGE SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PER BLEND OF 00Z/12Z ECMWF...THINK
THE FRONT WILL HANG UP TO THE SW ON MON...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...THEN LIFT TO THE NE TUE MORNING. A WEAK LEE TROUGH SHOULD
REMAIN AFTER FROPA THAT SHOULD PROMOTE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST FROM TUE THROUGH THU.
TEMPS NEAR AVG ON MON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE
AVG TUE-THU...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 INLAND...AND 75-80 CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR -RA THIS EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE AT FROM KJFK TO KISP. ANY -RA ENDS OVERNIGHT. CIGS
ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SCT-BKN AROUND 6000 FT.

S/SSW FLOW AROUND 10 KT DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW DEVELOPS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASES DURING THE DAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 22 TO 28 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY FOR CIGS TO DROP BELOW 3000
FT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: -RA LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: -RA LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY FOR CIGS TO DROP BELOW 3000
FT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...NW GUSTS 20-25 KT EARLY...DIMINISHING LATE.
.SAT...VFR. W WINDS 10-20KT IN THE AFTN.
.SUN...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-25KT.
.MON...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT. SHRA
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING TURN
TOWARD BACK TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH 25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT GUSTS NEAR SHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NY HARBOR AND WESTERN LI SOUND. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE GUSTY WINDS. THINKING THAT SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 5
FT...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS WITH THE
HIGHER GUSTS.

COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SAT...BUT MORE LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SCA CONDS
WILL COME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW 15-20
KT PUSHES SEAS AS HIGH AS 5 FT ON THE OUTERMOST AND EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY MAY STILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP. RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FALLING TO NEAR 30
PERCENT...AND W-NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. KBDI IS IN THE 100S ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND IN THE 200S ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT
MAY NOT BE FULLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE. WITH MARGINAL RH VALUES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY RED FLAG HEADLINES AND CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

SAT COULD ALSO BE A DAY OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR NYC
METRO...SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 20S
AND NW-W WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERN ZONES SUCH AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SRN CT...QPF WOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

QPF WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OVER 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE THROUGH THU COULD ALSO BRING LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
AMTS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...BC/JP
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN



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