Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
930 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REPLACED WARNINGS WITH ADVYS IN NYC...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND NE NJ WITH SNOW MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE THERE. ALSO CUT SHORT
THE END TIMES FOR WARNINGS FARTHER EAST TO 6 PM.

RADAR STILL SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AN
INCH PER HOUR EXTENDING FROM WEST OF BDL TO BDR AND ISP...AND
COULD SEE SIMILAR BANDS RE-FORM AND DISSIPATE MOSTLY OVER CT AND
LONG ISLAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AT MOST
SITES PER 14Z OBS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BLIZZARD
WARNINGS OUT EAST MAY BE REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS OR
WINTER WX ADVYS THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 1-3 INCH
PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER
HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED NGT-THU...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ067>075-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE






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