Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 182140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
540 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A weak and dry cold front pushes south through the region
Wednesday afternoon - still record warmth for Wednesday. A warm
front moves back north on Thursday. A cold front and associated
wave of low pressure moves through Friday with rain likely. Cool
high pressure returns for the weekend.


SCT-BKN clouds, currently over western PA, spread over the region
overnight reaching the NYC around midnight or just after. In
addition, winds in the boundary layer increase in advance of the
front. Thus, have removed fog from the overnight forecast.

Temps bottom out in the lower to mid 60s - above the normal high !


A "Cold" Front passes through around mid day from NW to SE on
Wednesday. Skies start mostly cloudy...but scatter from NW to SE
in the afternoon. We could have a sprinkle in the morning...but
not forecasting any measurable PCPN as all NWP indicates a dry

Temps are forecast to reach levels similar to those of today with
the SW flow ahead of the front despite the cloud cover. Records
should once again be broken (see climate section below).

Temps Wednesday night drop to around 60 in the NY Metro...but near
50 well inland...perhaps mid 40s. The "Blend" is slow to respond
to changes in guidance which dropped several degrees with this


Leaned away from GFS, and its weak low pressure depiction over the

Vigorous upper trough approaches the area Thursday and Thursday
night. Ample lift ahead of the trough/cold front, with plenty of
moisture noted for showers increasing in coverage from the west. In
addition, moisture associated with tropical low over the Atlantic
will advect northward. Area should see impacts from the offshore
low, and front/upper trough by Friday, with highest probabilities
for showers occurring during that time.

Prior to that, highest probabilities remain over western or
northwestern sections Thursday into Thursday evening.

Once the entire system pushes away from the area, conditions will
dry out. Upper trough lags as it cuts off, slowly tracking across
the northeast this weekend. A spot shower or two is possible, but
there will likely be too much dry air in northwest downslope flow.

Dry weather persists for the latter portion of the weekend and into
early next week. A backdoor front, associated with additional
shortwave energy aloft, should come through dry Monday.

Warm conditions ahead of the trough/front expected with above normal
temperatures Thursday and Friday. Then, cooler temperatures are
anticipated for the weekend and into early next week as canadian
high pressure builds. In fact, temperatures should average a few
degrees below normal.

Gusty conditions are expected this weekend as sfc low deepens to the


VFR as weak high pressure remains over the terminals. SW winds
subside into this evening.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. Occasional
gusts to 20kt possible this evening.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. Occasional
gusts to 20kt possible this evening.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. Occasional
gusts to 20kt possible this evening.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments Not Scheduled.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.Outlook for 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.THU-FRI...MVFR or lower possible in potential showers, especially
Thursday night into Friday.
.SAT...VFR. W Wind G 30 KT.
.SUN...VFR. W Wind G 25 KT.


A very marginal SCA on the Ocean waters this evening into WED morning
with residual long period SE swell and a SSW flow ahead of an
approaching weak cold front.

Winds will weaken WED morning...and gradually veer to NE in the
AFTN. Thus, ocean seas should gradually subside as well.

Tranquil conditions are expected Thursday. Easterly winds
persist, then turn to the southeast Thursday night as a warm front
moves through.

Winds eventually turn toward the west, and increase Friday
night, continuing through the weekend.

Seas build by late Friday/Friday night and continue through the
weekend in response to the gusty westerly winds.

Eastern waters will observe the higher seas due to fetch.


No rainfall through midweek.

Uncertainty with regard to precipitation amounts continues Thursday
through Friday. There is the potential for at least a half inch of
rain, but it could be significantly less.


Record warmth continues on Wednesday.

Wednesday October 19:

Climate SiteRECORDNWS Forecast High

Bridgeport 81/1963 79
Central Park 83/1963 83
Islip 74/1998 82
Kennedy 75/1965 80
LaGuardia 80/1945 81
Newark 82/194585


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-


NEAR TERM...Tongue
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