Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 210015
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
815 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Jose well southeast of the twin forks of Long
Island will slowly move northeast through tonight, then meander
well offshore through Thursday night. Meanwhile, high pressure
builds over the area Thursday and remains in place through early
next week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast.
Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more
details on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Jose was located about 200 miles southeast of the twin forks of
Long Island early this evening and will continue moving slowly
to the northeast away from the coast through tonight. Please
refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on
Jose.

Rain bands continue to spiral just east of the forecast area,
however, with a ridge building to the west and northwest, the
rain has been diminishing as the rain bands move into areas of
increasing subsidence. So, will continue with a dry forecast for
tonight. Ridging and surface high pressure will build in
through tonight. The cloud shield associated with Jose will
remain across much of the area.

Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches
tonight, with high surf through late this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge and surface high will build into the area early
Thursday and then remain into Thursday night. Jose will continue
to meander well to the southeast of the area into Thursday, and
with the ridge in place late Thursday Jose is expected to begin
slowly moving to the west with weak steering currents. By late
Thursday night rain bands may begin to move back into the far
eastern sections and will again have slight to low end chance
probabilities over the far eastern sections toward Friday
morning. Again, please refer to National Hurricane Center
products for more details on Jose.

Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches
through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The center of Jose`s remnants are expected to meander about
150-200 miles to the SE of Montauk Friday through the weekend.
Associated showers may be able to sneak into eastern LI and SE
CT Friday and Saturday, but with the system weakening further,
will keep with a dry forecast for Saturday night and Sunday
through Monday. Cannot completely rule out showers for these
periods as well as Jose`s remnants may linger around. Clouds may
prevent high temperatures from rising above normal levels east
of the city for Friday and Saturday, but all other areas
probably see highs above normal. A better chance of high
temperatures above normal for all areas then follows for Sunday
and Monday with temperatures trying to rise aloft. Rough surf
will continue to be likely at least through the end of this week
and may continue into early next week.

The interaction between whatever is left of Jose with Hurricane
Maria adds a great deal of uncertainty for Tuesday and
Wednesday`s forecast. Will introduce a slight chance of showers
for Tuesday, then bump them up into the chance category for
Wednesday as Maria draws a little closer.

Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more
details on Jose and Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tropical cyclone Jose will meander off the southern New England
coast through Friday.

VFR all terminals except KGON which is expected to remain around
2k ft through much if not all of the overnight, before lifting
back to VFR.

Gusts have mostly subsided, however an ocnl gust around 20 kt
will be possible overnight. Gusts increase again Thursday, but
will not be as strong, generally 20-30 kt, highest eastern
terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may begin +/- 1-2 hours than forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may begin +/- 1-2 hours than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may begin +/- 1-2 hours than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may begin +/- 1-2 hours than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may begin +/- 1-2 hours than forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: Gusts may begin +/- 1-2 hours than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night-Friday...VFR. N winds gusting between 20-25kt.
.Saturday-Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Jose was approximately 200 nautical miles southeast of Montauk
Point early this evening. The storm will continue to track
slowly to the northeast through tonight and into early Thursday
before meandering Thursday afternoon, and then begin to track
westward late Thursday into Thursday night. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity
forecasts for Jose.

The small craft advisory on NY Harbor, Western LI Sound, and the
south shore bays has been allowed to expire early this evening.
Gusts should remain below 25 kt on these waters. On the ocean
waters, the small craft advisory continues through Thursday
night. Gusts will however remain below 25 kt on the ocean west
of Fire Island Inlet tonight. To the east, small craft gusts
remain through Thursday night. The small craft west of Moriches
Inlet will likely eventually be converted to a hazardous seas
advisory as seas remain above 5 ft through at least Thursday
night.

On the eastern Long Island bays and eastern Long Island Sound,
small craft gusts remain into Thursday and may need to be
extended into Thursday night. This will depend on the track of
Jose.

There is some uncertainty regarding winds and seas Friday
through early next week due to Jose. What seems more probable is
that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell.
For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible
mainly east of Fire Island Inlet and over eastern LI Sound and
the eastern bays of LI for Friday and Saturday. Winds would then
weaken thereafter as Jose weakens further.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Episodes of minor coastal flooding will likely continue through
the week. Subsequent high tide cycles through the week will be
impacted by continued rough surf and long period swells as TC
Jose becomes nearly stationary about a couple hundred miles to
the southeast of eastern Long Island. Water levels through the
week will approach or exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks,
with the possibility of localized moderate coastal flooding.
The most susceptible locations will be the south shore back
bays of Long Island.

High surf will fall through tonight, but remain rough through
the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for NYZ080-178-
     179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$



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