Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 261749
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
149 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND WERE
PUSHING NORTH...SO ALONG THE COAST HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES TO REFLECT THE PASSAGE. HOWEVER...FOR INLAND
AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TO TOP OUT AT AROUND 90.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY
DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.
THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
FORM.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND
PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE
WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN
NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE
THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT
DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING.
HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING
SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE
AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES.

GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

VFR TODAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG
FORMATION...ESP AWAY FROM NYC METRO. TIMING WOULD BE AFTR 09Z.

S/SE WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES HAVE FORMED AND
WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 13Z FROM THE SW.

LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT PCPN REACHES AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC BEFORE
00Z TOMORROW...SO NO REFLECTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHC AFTR 00Z THURS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN
18-19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTR 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN...
.WED AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA.
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY...PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS
SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE
TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON
THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN





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