Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 280001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL
NEARBY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA NOT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CT. STORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED AROUND NYC...AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO
NE NJ. WITH STABLE...MARINE AIRMASS OVER LONG ISLAND/NYC/COASTAL
CT...NOT EXPECTING MANY STORMS TO SURVIVE OR DEVELOP IN THAT
ATMOSPHERE.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN CT...THROUGH NYC...AND INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS...SO WILL ALLOW SVR
TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

SHOULD BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT NORTH/WEST OF
NYC WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. NOTING THAT FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER ON COVERAGE/EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FASTER THAN
THE NAM/CMC-REG. NOTING 700-500 HPA FLOW HAS A FAIRLY DECENT
PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE FRONT...LEANED TOWARDS THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS. WITH A WEAKENING FRONT
THOUGH...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHER FROM NYC AND
AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST.

WITH LESS MLCAPE...500-1000 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR THAN
TODAY...AND THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FORECAST TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DO NOT THINK THERE IS AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY PER WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NJ APPROACHED 90. DEWPOINTS
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS WELL
NORTH/WEST OF NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING TREND RESUMES ALOFT WITH JET STREAM WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE JET PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE BROAD SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING RESUMES BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH JET STREAM ONCE
AGAIN MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES QUICKLY
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL LESSEN WITH TIME AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED
TO THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DEEPENS MORE WITHIN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT ONCE AGAIN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED QUICKLY
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL REGIONS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOISTURE AS VERY LIGHT
QPF. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING MORE MINIMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL STAY MOSTLY AS MARITIME TROPICAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEAR NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS WELL AS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MID NEXT WEEK. LOWS AT NIGHT OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE A LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS RIGHT
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

AT 00Z THURSDAY A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NYC AREA TERMINALS AND WILL
WEAKEN AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
AND BRIEF MARGINAL CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MARGINAL CEILINGS IN STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. LOCAL MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS MOVING IN...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT END QUICKLY AROUND 03Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1200 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A HOUR OR
SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL AROUND 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND COULD BE A COUPLE
OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1300 FT DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...AND COULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS EXIT THE TERMINAL BY 01Z. MARGINAL
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE COULD BE
NEARER TO 06Z. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT MARGINAL VFR FOG IS
LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOME STRATUS AROUND 1200 FT REMAINS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER 0030Z TO 0130Z WITH
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR WITH A IFR CEILINGS
FOR A WHILE TOWARD SUNRISE. MARGINAL CEILINGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF CEILINGS AND
TIMING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW TO N. VFR.
.FRI...VFR. LGT NE WINDS VEERING THRU THE DAY.
.SAT...MRNG MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHC SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER. STRONG SLY FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE E/NE.
.MON...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. E/NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF SANDY HOOK WITH USUAL LATE DAY/EVENING
SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. NY HARBOR AND WRN LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD EXPERIENCE EITHER DIRECT TSTM IMPACTS OR A GUST FRONT
FROM WEAKENING INLAND STORMS TOWARD EVENING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5 FT
SATURDAY...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...EVEN
AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ/SW CT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTING PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF JUST OVER 1.5
INCH AND CORFIDI VECTORS 10 KT OR LESS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS THAT COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10
KT AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY NEAR 1.25 INCHES...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF
IT OCCURS OVER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH PW FORECAST TO REACH UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR AN EXTENDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING NEARBY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM


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