Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 181512
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1012 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REVISED THE CLOUD COVER FCST BASED OBSERVED AND LATEST
PAR/HRRR/LAMP/NARRE-TL GUIDANCE. STRATO-CUMULUS SHOULD HANG ON MOST
OF THE DAY TO THE NW. BASICALLY SKC FOR LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF CT
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. THE THE AMOUNT OF STRATO CU DIMINISHES THIS
AFTN. WORDED FCST FOR NYC CAME OUT PARTLY SUNNY...BUT THINKING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

MAX TEMPS A TAD WARMER OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE.

WINDS REMAIN NW GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR`EASTER LATE MON-EARLY
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED CHANCES OF PCPN AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR`EASTER MAINLY
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT.  VFR THROUGH TAF
PERIOD

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SOME VARIABILITY OF NW WIND
DIRECTION 30-40 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR WET SNOW.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
.MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTING IN SCA WIND
GUSTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CONDS ON THE OCEAN
MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
THE END TIME AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE
W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. PCPN WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW





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