Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 070925
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPLIT FLOW TODAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PIVOTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...OUR AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW MOVING OFF THE SE COAST AND ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. RIDGE
EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER MORNING PATCHY FOG OFF SNOW PACK...A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S...THANKS TO WAA IN SW
FLOW...PER MOS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN GENERAL...EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE AT
TIMES...THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT DO EXPECT UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WITH NEXT VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY.

AS THE INITIAL ATLANTIC SFC LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY...NEXT LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH SECOND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THIS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
NORLUN TROUGH LINGERING W/NWWD OVER THE AREA.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW APPROACHING LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THIS SNOW EXTENDS...BUT BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND...SE CT. THEN
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH/NEXT SFC LOW APPROACHES...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT LIFT.

INTERMITTENT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS MENTIONED. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID
20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S IN AND AROUND NYC.

WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW MOVING IN MONDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO RISE MUCH...EXCEPT NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR IS MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...NAM AND SREF STILL THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WHEN
COMPARED TO GFS AND ECMWF. PER COLLAB WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...AGREE WITH A LIKELY SCENARIO OF A DUSTING TO COUPLE
INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 5 INCHES TOWARDS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT MONDAY. OF COURSE AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGHER IF NAM/SREF MEAN SCENARIO PANS OUT.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW BANDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT WHERE THEY
WOULD SET UP ATTM. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL
MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY...WHEREAS MOST OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTER QPF/SNOW.

BELIEVE A 2 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IF YOU
COMBINE THE TWO SYSTEMS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE MINIMAL BREAK
IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TIMES OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND NORLUN TROUGH LINGERS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE AREA BEHIND ATLANTIC LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD. IN FACT...A SECOND LOW MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BEST
LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY.
POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS BEST MOISTURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER WEEK ACTIVITY. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -22C TO -26C.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE E/SE MAY BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF.
HIGHEST CHC AT SE CT/E LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. NE WINDS G20-30+KT
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS EAST.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY EAST/POSSIBLE WEST IN SNOW. NE-N
WINDS G20-30KT WEST AND 30-40KT EAST POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN SNOW. MIXED
PCPN POSSIBLE AT COAST DURING THE DAY ON TUE. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT-TUE.
.WED-THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRES
OFF THE SE COAST TRACKS N THEN NE PASSING SE OF LONG ISLAND ON
MONDAY. NE WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 35 KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND EASTERN LI
SOUND/BAYS...THEREFORE HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING
HERE. REST OF HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.

GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DIMINISH ON ALL BUT THE OCEAN WATERS E OF
MORICHES INLET DURING THE AFTN ON MON...BUT HAVE KEPT THE END TIME
AT 23Z FOR ALL ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME WIGGLE ROOM. SCA WINDS MAY
THEN LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVE...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND THE PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SUB-ADVSY WINDS PREVAIL TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THEN INCREASE
AGAIN WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU WITH SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL
WATERS. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY EVEN REACH GALE FORCE THU
AFTN AND EVE...BUT SINCE IT APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM WILL REFRAIN
FROM INCLUDING IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW TUESDAY THAT WILL BE
CLOSER. A TROUGH LINGERS NEARBY TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO PROLONGED UNSETTLED PRECIP EVENT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH...FROM NW
TO SE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A NEW
MOON ON MONDAY AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN NE/N WINDS INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE
40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N THAN NE.
THIS WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINOR AND
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
IMPACTS IN THE BACK BAY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS/PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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