Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 291448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT ON
FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MEAN TROUGH WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS EVIDENT FROM RIDGING AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INVERSION AT 8-10 KFT. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE CMC
REGIONAL MODEL SHOWS THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
DEVELOPING UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION. SO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST OVERALL EXHIBITS VALUES WITHIN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...COOLER ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL RESIDE AND
ACROSS THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW. THESE VALUES ARE ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH A LACK OF FORCING FOR ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NE OF THE AREA TUE
MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEMS ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE S. TRENDS ARE SLOWER
ON 00Z GUIDANCE AND IT COULD END UP REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE AFTN
ON TUE. HAVE CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF CHC POPS KEEPING IT ONLY IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WEAKENS TO A
TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALSO ENTERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
SOURCES OF LIFT TO CONSIDER BETWEEN THESE SURFACE FEATURES...A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVING IN...A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL JET AND LARGER-
SCALE LIFT FROM A JET STREAK SHIFTING THROUGH. SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS REMAINING LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. CAPE AND
BULK SHEAR ARE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY DURING WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS COULD BE TEMPERED BY THE
CLOUD COVER.

LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS STILL POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA...THEN THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT EITHER SHIFTS BACK NORTH OVER US...OR JUST
STALLS RIGHT OVER THE CWA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING FRIDAY. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE...SO HAVE CHC POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE BEST OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER
CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/TSTM...PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN ZONES. WILL THEN GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
SOUTHERN ZONES GET HELD INTO THE 70S DURING FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW...AND POTENTIALLY SOME RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

LINGERING HIGH END MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SCT-BKN 040-050 CIGS EXPECTED.

W FLOW WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT...BACKING TO THE SW AT THE S COASTS
AFTER 15-18Z. LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT
KJFK/KISP.

VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE LIKELY AFTER 20-21Z...BUT TIMING
COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK TO AROUND 250-260 MAGNETIC
AFTER 18Z. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AFTER 22-23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK TO AROUND 250-260 MAGNETIC
AFTER 18Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEST WINDS MAY BACK TO AROUND 250-260 MAGNETIC
AFTER 18Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEST WINDS MAY BACK TO AROUND 250-260 MAGNETIC
AFTER 18Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE LIKELY AFTER 21Z...BUT TIMING COULD
BE OFF BY AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF TSRA...MAINLY WEST OF NYC TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS IN
SHRA WITH SCT TSRA.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ALL THE
OCEAN WATERS. THE OCEAN WATERS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET REMAIN UP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN THROUGH TUE.

5-7 FT SEAS SE/S SWELLS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. A POSSIBLE BUILDING SE-S SWELL
COULD BRING SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN DURING
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD
CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AND GIVEN
EXPECTED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...NV/PW
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT



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