Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 240136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
936 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds
from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region
through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front
will impact the region toward the middle of next week.


Showers have dissipated with loss of heating and passage of
shortwave trough. Best lift is passing south across the Middle
Atlantic so do not expect any new activity to develop overnight.
Frontal boundary still remaining nearly stationary across the
southern portion of the area, but should sink south overnight.

Skies will clear as the front moves south and shortwave trough
passes offshore.

Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low
60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island
Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s.


High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid
level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to
a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro,
but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees
above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most
places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east.
Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on
Atlantic facing beaches on Friday.


High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and
slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday.
Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day,
possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In
addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land
temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon
seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.


Low pressure passes to the south tonight and Friday as high
pressure builds to the north.

VFR through the TAF period. Shower activity to the north and west
this evening has dissipated and any activity stays to our
southwest overnight.

Light S/SE winds go to light and variable into the overnight.
After 6-8z, expect winds to become north/northeast with speeds
increasing towards 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east,
then more southeast during the afternoon. South coastal terminals
more likely to see southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

KJFK TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then further to the southeast by

KLGA TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then further to the southeast by
afternoon. Timing of southeast winds may vary by 1-2 hours
compared to neighboring terminals.

KEWR TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east by afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.


Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island
Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning.
Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop.


No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip
will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front
passes through.




SHORT TERM...Goodman
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.