Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 120018
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
718 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches tonight and passes to the north Tuesday.
This intensifying low pressure system will move into the Canadian
Maritimes Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A weak Alberta
Clipper passes to the south on Thursday, followed by a low
pressure system passing off the coast Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Adjustments were made to hourly temperatures, dewpoints, and
cloud coverage to better match observed trends. The forecast
overall is on track.

Shortwave tracks across IL and OH toward the region just ahead
of vigorous shortwave diving out of Canada toward the western
Great Lakes region. At the sfc, two low pressure centers
approach, passing across the Great Lakes region toward western
NY State by Tuesday morning. A warm front/WAA out ahead of the
lows/upper shortwaves will result in an increase in clouds, and
precipitation chances increase after midnight.

Cold air initially across the northeast will warm as the night
progresses. Sfc temperatures initially fall this evening with
most lows likely reached before midnight, then hold steady
before rising overnight as south flow begins to pick up.

At this time, precip looks to hold off until overnight per most
operational models solutions, and many GEFS members. Across the
interior, a few hours of snow is possible, with very low
chances toward the coast for either a wintry mix or plain rain.
Timing and placement will be the key as low levels warm ahead of
the lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough closes off, as sfc low deepens across NY State and
into New England during this time frame.

QPF looks light, with lower amounts or even trace amounts near
the coast, and higher totals as you head north across the
interior. Would expect interior portions of southern CT, and the
lower Hudson Valley of southeast NY to observe higher qpf up to
a 1/4 of an inch liquid equivalent.

Early in the morning, a snow or rain snow mix will quickly give
way to plain rain as WAA continues, and the lower levels of the
atmosphere warm. With increasing southerly flow, temperatures
warm through the 40s, and coastal locations should warm to
around 50. Will lean toward the warmer guidance, and would not
be surprised to see some temps slightly higher than guidance.

Any precip tapers off as the day progresses, and drier air moves
in behind the low/front by evening thanks to NW flow. With the
upper low in the vicinity, a few snow showers are possible
overnight, but this should be isolated. Gusty NW flow and CAA
will commence.

Temps fall to the upper teens/20s across the region. Quite cold.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday begins with an upper low over the Northeast and a
deepening surface low entering SE Canada. There could be some snow
showers over eastern LI and SE CT in the morning before the upper
low shifts east and overall lift diminishes. Dry, cold and windy
otherwise. 850mb temperatures will fall to around 15C, but partial
sunshine and a strong downsloping wind should somewhat temper the
cold air mixing down from aloft. Highs expected to range from the
upper 20s well inland to mid 30s for coastal sections. Wind chills
start in the single digits in the morning and average around 20 in
the afternoon. For now it appears that wind gusts should fall short
of advisory levels, but probably not by much, so it`s possible that
an advisory would be needed as the event draws closer. Some coastal
spots might even meet criteria based on sustained winds.

Winds subside Wednesday night and low temperatures will average 5-10
degrees below normal. A clipper low is progged to pass south of us
on Thursday. Models show some track and timing differences as well
as available moisture. Snow from this system may however stretch
north into our region, so will introduce low chances for this into
the forecast for southern sections. Like most clippers, this has the
potential for only light accumulations.

The active weather pattern continues on Friday with an upper trough
axis digging into the Ohio Valley and models showing low pressure
strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The trough becomes
negatively tilted Friday night, but not before the low is pushed SE
of the 40N/70W benchmark. Upper jet winds/streaks are not currently
progged in a position to help expand the PCPN shield NW towards us
as they did with the storm this past weekend. Shortwaves embedded
within the longwave upper trough however may help spread PCPN closer
to us. Looks like this would be an all-snow event with best chances
of snow Friday afternoon and night. Too early to go with anything
higher than chance PoPs for this potential event.

A high pressure ridge follows for Saturday with dry weather, then
another low moves through the vicinity of the southern Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley regions on Sunday. Global models disagree on its
evolution and track, but will go with a dry forecast through Sunday.
A better chance of PCPN across the entire region appears to be
Sunday night or Monday as the low shifts east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will bring
a warm front through the terminals late tonight into early
Tuesday morning. As the low moves into southern Canada and
northern New England Tuesday a cold front will move through
during the afternoon.

VFR tonight. MVFR ceilings and visibilities develop early
Tuesday morning as precipitation becomes steady. Rain is
expected at the terminals with the exception of KSWF where a
period of rain and snow is likely. There is now more confidence
in rain at the terminals as warm air moves in ahead of the cold
front.

After the cold frontal passage snow showers will be possible,
even at the coastal terminals.

Southerly winds develop behind the warm front, then shift to
the west to northwest behind the cold front, and become gusty.
There is the potential for winds to gust as high as 30 KT,
especially Tuesday evening.


     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected tonight.
Timing of MVFR and any precipitation Tuesday morning will result in
amendments. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 KT possible Tuesday
morning with NW gusts 25-30 KT possible later in the afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected tonight.
Timing of MVFR and any precipitation Tuesday morning will result in
amendments. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 KT possible Tuesday
morning with NW gusts 25-30 KT possible later in the afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected through
tonight. Timing of MVFR and any precipitation Tuesday morning will
result in amendments. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 KT possible
Tuesday morning with NW gusts 25-30 KT possible later in the
afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected through
tonight. Timing of MVFR and any precipitation Tuesday morning will
result in amendments. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 KT possible
Tuesday morning with NW gusts to 30 KT possible later in the
afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected through
tonight. Timing of MVFR and any precipitation Tuesday morning will
result in amendments. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 KT possible
Tuesday morning with NW gusts 25-30 KT possible later in the
afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected through
tonight. Timing of MVFR and any precipitation Tuesday morning will
result in amendments. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 KT possible
Tuesday morning with NW gusts to 30 KT possible Tuesday evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR in snow
showers. W-NW winds G20-35KT probable.
.Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR. W-SW winds G15-25KT possible.
.Friday...MVFR possible with snow. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible.
.Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to abate, as seas subside. Seas and winds are
expected to remain below SCA criteria tonight. Deepening low
pressure approaches from the west late tonight and Tuesday.
South winds increase, and SCA conditions return during the day
Tuesday all waters. Cannot rule out a gale gust or two during
the day, but as a front approaches, winds may temporarily
diminish. By nighttime Tuesday, westerly winds pick up behind
the deepening low as it passes north across New England.

Gale Watch remains in effect for the ocean waters beginning
Tuesday night for increasing winds. The SCA continues for non
ocean waters, with wind gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range.

A gale watch remains in effect for all waters Wednesday and
Wednesday night with a strong NW flow behind low pressure
strengthening as it heads towards the Canadian Maritimes. SCA
conds will likely continue into Thursday morning for most of the
waters. Sub-SCA conds finally reach all waters by Thursday
night with the pressure gradient weakening. This relatively
tranquil period should continue through Friday. A coastal storm
may then impact the waters Friday night into Saturday with at
least SCA conditions developing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts expected.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time. See our headline news on
the web at: http:/weather.gov/nyc

The Riverhead NOAA Weather Radio Station WXM-80 (162.475 MHz)
is currently out of service. NWS technicians are working with
Verizon to restore service. An estimated time of return to
service is not currently known.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
     for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night
     for ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...19
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/PW
EQUIPMENT...



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