Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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934
FXUS61 KOKX 171534
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1134 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of high pressure builds in from the west today. The
high will remain in control through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Slight adjustment to temperatures and winds for the next few
hours, otherwise forecast mainly on track. Frosty conditions
did occur across a good swath of Central and Northern Orange
County this morning...otherwise temperatures recover for the
late morning and early afternoon.

An upper shortwave axis moves east today, with slight mean
upper troughing in its wake. At the surface, high pressure to
the west gradually builds to the south of the region. Any wind
gusts this morning will subside quickly. By the afternoon winds
go variable to a light WSW direction with high pressure starting
to settle on top of the region.

Another slightly below seasonable day expected with cold pool
overhead, despite wall to wall sunshine. Temps likely only
topping out in the upper 50s to near 60 for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Slight shortwave upper ridging builds into the region during
this period, while surface high pressure gradually slides south
of the region.

Good radiational cooling conditions likely tonight across
interior with a favorable waa aloft setup for decoupling;
allowing temps to fall into the lower to mid 30s once again.
Frost conditions are likely once again late tonight across the
interior of southern CT and for the suburbs NW of NYC metro.
After collab with surrounding offices, will hold off on Frost
Advisory just yet to see if any interior areas experience a hard
freeze early this morning, ending their growing season. For
city and coast, increasing potential for mixing as the night
wears on in strengthening return flow, which may keep or bounce
temps into the 40s. Lower 50s likely for the NYC metro.

Sunny skies and a gradual moderation in temps begins on
Wednesday as SW return flow develops around the high to the
south. Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable
levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of
the period. Only a weak and dry cold front passage occurs
Thursday night as the flow aloft turns cyclonic for a short
period. The next chance of rainfall doesn`t appear to arrive
until Monday night with the approach of the next cold front.
Expect abundant sunshine throughout the period with daytime
highs averaging around 7-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure sets up just southwest of the region through
Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period. Northerly winds will gradually back
through the day. Occasional gusts are possible through 18z.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday-Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The winds will continue to weaken through the late morning and
early afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens.

High pressure prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub SCA
conditions. The only exception is that SCA conditions may be
approached Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a
weak cold front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV



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