Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS



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