Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 130249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEKEND...AND THEN REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS FROM LATE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. MADE MINOR EDITS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS. LAV GUIDANCE RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COLD SO MANUALLY EDITED
DATA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DID NOT EDIT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TONIGHT.
ALOFT...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED. SURFACE AND H8 WARM
FRONT REMAIN NORTH...AND DRIFT FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO INTO THE 40S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW 50 DEGREE
READINGS IN AND AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RISING HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EAST COAST
AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
AREA REMAINS WARM SECTORED.

THESE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY WATER WILL RESULT IN LARGE TEMPERATURE
SPREADS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS RISING WELL INTO
THE 70S. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER AS HIGH
RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM INDICATE. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT SUNDAY...WITH EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK. TEMPS GET PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER AS YOU HEAD WEST TOWARD NYC...NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SW CT.

AS LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING
ACROSS AND TO THE EAST LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS OVER LAND RISING INTO THE
50S WHILE OCEAN TEMPS REMAIN IN THE CHILLY LOWER AND MID 40S...WILL
LEAD TO ADVECTION FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY MON AM...THAT
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...
TEMPS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES.
DO NOT EXPECT LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP UNTIL MON
NIGHT...WITH POP INCREASING TO LIKELY NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FROM
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ON TUE AND COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR
1.5 INCHES INTO THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE FRONT PASSES TO
THE EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BRIEFLY TO SNOW. WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP IN
THE FCST WED INTO THU ESPECIALLY FOR SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND...IN
CASE ANY SUBSEQUENT WAVES DEVELOP AND GRAZE THE AREA.

EXPECT DRY CONDS THROUGHOUT THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS...THEN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYS SHOULD
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT.

TEMPS WED-THU SHOULD BE BELOW AVG...THEN SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO
AVG FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO 00Z
TAF PACKAGE.

SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT...AND WILL BE 5 KT OR
LESS AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR TONIGHT...AND VFR CONDS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z SUNDAY.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP VFR IN THE TAFS BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS
SO DRY AND IT WILL BE HARD FOR STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS TOWARDS
SUNDAY EVENING...AND WILL INCLUDE IFR VSBY IN BR AT KEWR/KJFK.

S FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NGT-MON...PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR. S WINDS 15-25KT.
.MON NGT-TUE...IFR LIKELY WITH RAIN AND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE.
.WED...VFR.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44017 WAVES DOWN TO 4.6 FT AND DECREASING AND SWELLS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. SCA WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 03Z SO WENT AHEAD
AND CANCELLED IT AS OF 02Z AS TRENDS ARE SHOWING DECREASING WAVE
HEIGHTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT BY LATE
DAY OR AT NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS.


VISIBILITIES COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR MARINERS TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUE EVENING.

SCA HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...BUT NOT FOR THE SHELTERED WATERS SURROUNDING LONG
ISLAND AS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THERE IS STILL
TOO LOW ATTM.

AN EXTENDED PD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED VIA PERSISTENT S
FLOW MON INTO TUE EVENING...THEN AS PERSISTENT NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE LATER THIS
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF GALES MAINLY ON THE OCEAN JUST
AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...ALSO BRIEF SCA CONDS ON THE ERN SOUND/BAYS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL COME FROM TUE INTO TUE EVENING.
MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED LOWER...BUT STILL THINK RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/LN/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW








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