Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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281
FXUS61 KOKX 011713
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1213 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes tonight into
Friday. A weak trough will move through Saturday. High pressure
builds in for Sunday and pushes offshore Sunday night as an upper
level trough approaches. High pressure builds in thereafter
through Tuesday. A frontal system approaches for the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flow behind a cold front has become westerly as upper low lifts
into southern Ontario/Quebec. This is driving much drier air into
the area. Cold advection has begun, and it appears temperatures
are now holding steady, only to begin falling as the afternoon
progresses with low sun angle. Winds will gusts 25 to 30 mph
through the afternoon hours.

Mostly/partly sunny skies are expected, with an increasing amount
of strato-cu clouds across the interior. Lower coverage east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Closed upper low slowly lifts into southeastern Canada tonight into
Friday with weak troughing noted aloft. Several lobes of energy will
swing across the region as the upper low slowly drifts to the east.
The Tri-State will be located within a fairly tight pressure
gradient between low pressure to the north and east and high
pressure over the central states.

Cold advection will continue tonight with a NW flow in the middle
and upper levels. Any stratocumulus from during the day should
largely dissipate with only a few lingering clouds across the
interior. The boundary layer will be well mixed tonight so do not
anticipate radiational cooling and temperatures dropping much below
freezing. Readings generally in the middle to upper 30s are forecast
with a few locations across the interior possibly falling into the
lower 30s.

Friday should start mostly clear, but then clouds are likely to
increase from NW to SE in the afternoon with the shortwave energy
rotating around the larger cutoff low. The most cloud cover should
be confined to the interior and this is also where an isolated
sprinkle or flurry cannot be ruled out. Have left this out of the
grids for now due to model soundings showing a good amount of dry
air below 5kft to overcome. Highs will be near normal in the upper
40s to near 50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions for the beginning of the long term as surface
high pressure builds in Saturday, with zonal flow aloft. It will be
on the breezy side as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes
strengthens as it pulls away from the area. A weak surface trough
will move through Saturday, but only expecting a wind shift from the
WNW to the NW and some increase in cloudiness. Lift associated with
this trough is weak and moisture is lacking to produce any
precipitation.

Surface high pressure moves over the region Sunday, pushing offshore
Sunday night as a northern stream weak upper level shortwave
approaches from the Great Lakes area. This feature seems to weaken
as it heads toward the area Sunday night into Monday, so chance POPs
late Sunday night transition to slight chance everywhere for Monday.

High pressure then moves in for Monday night through the day
Tuesday, then retreats to the northeast on Tuesday as a frontal
system approaches from the southwest. Cold air damming for Tuesday
into Tuesday night, so some light snow is possible inland. This
system also seems to weaken as it moves into the drier air of the
high pressure system to the northeast. Only slight chance POPs
associated with this system.

Temperatures in the long term will be at or slightly below normal
for this time of year, in the 40s region-wide.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure continues to move northeast away from the region.

Main impact today will be westerly winds. Gusts to 20 to 25 kt
this morning...increasing to 25-30 kt for this afternoon.
Prevailing wind direction expected to be left of 310 magnetic.
Gusts will likely be slow to subside below 25 kt through the
evening push for NYC/NJ metro airports...diminishing quicker for
outlying airports.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Westerly winds today...prevailing direction
expected to be left of 310 magnetic. Frequent gusts to 25-30 kt
developing this afternoon...with a few peak gusts to 35 kt
possible.

KLGA TAF Comments: Westerly winds today...prevailing direction
expected to be left of 310 magnetic. Frequent gusts to 25-30 kt
developing this afternoon...with a few peak gusts to 35 kt
possible.

KEWR TAF Comments: Westerly winds today...prevailing direction
expected to be left of 310 magnetic. Frequent gusts to 25-30 kt
developing this afternoon...with a few peak gusts to 35 kt
possible.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Westerly winds today...prevailing direction
expected to be left of 310 magnetic. Frequent gusts to 25 kt
developing this afternoon...with a few peak gusts to 30 kt
possible.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Friday...VFR. West gusts 20-25 KT.
.Saturday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 KT.
.Sunday...VFR.
.Monday...VFR...possibly lower at times depending on the track of
low pressure to the south.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions are expected on all waters this afternoon behind a
cold front with an increasing westerly flow.

SCA wind gusts will continue tonight on all waters, but begin to
fall below criteria on the LI Sound, NY Harbor, and LI Bays early
Friday morning.

Winds on the ocean may come close to 25 kt on Friday. Ocean seas
will begin to subside tonight, but still remain above 5 ft through
Friday. For now have held off on extending the SCA past 11z Friday
on the ocean.

Waves should remain below SCA criteria through the long term. Winds
could gust to 25-30 kt on the ocean waters Friday night through the
first half of Saturday night as low pressure of the Canadian
Maritimes strengthens and pulls away from the waters. Thereafter,
winds should remain below 25 kt as high pressure builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant precipitation is forecast through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...FEB/NV
MARINE...JP/DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS



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