Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 050111 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 911 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND AFFECTS THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...TO NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY 05Z AND THE AREA BECOMING STABLE THIS EVENING HAVE REMOVED POPS. UPDATED FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS IN DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. ERE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WHERE THERE IS BETTER SUPPORT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... UPR JET DIVES INTO THE AREA BY AFTN. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE NAM IS PICKING UP ON SCT-ISOLD CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVE. THE GFS IS DRY. LAPSE RATES ARE SLIGHTLY STEEPER IN THE NAM...WITH AROUND 8C BETWEEN H85-H7. THE GFS IS AROUND 7C IN THE SAME LAYER. WITH THE APPROACHING COLD POOL ALOFT...JET AND WARM SST/S...DID NOT DISCOUNT THE NAM AND HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 20 POPS FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY. ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY INVOF LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO LEND SOME SUPPORT TO TSTMS CHCS. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE KEEPING THE AREA DRY. COMPLICATED FORECAST THEREAFTER IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL FORM FROM A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE MID-WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THEREAFTER IS VERY UNCERTAIN. 12Z NAM AND THE 00Z ECMWF SHARE A SIMILAR TRACK...BRINGING THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF PASSES SOUTH AND EAST LONG ISLAND SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND THE CANADIAN TAKE THE LOW OVER FARTHER SOUTH...OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...THEN TURNING NORTHEAST AND PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...HUNDREDS OF MILES EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND THUS HAVING NO IMPACT TO THE AREA WHATSOEVER. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE OPERATIONAL...BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD AND THUS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SOLUTIONS UNTIL THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN...MAKING THE NAM MORE OF AN OUTLIER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH THE MODELS...THERE WOULD BE MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KT IN NYC METRO...AND 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VEER MORE NW OVERNIGHT. W WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN BY AFTERNOON 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...WITH SW SEA BREEZE ONLY AT KGON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVE IF WINDS DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVE IF WINDS DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN FCST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVE IF WINDS DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN FCST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVE IF WINDS DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVE IF WINDS DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR WITH W WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NW. .FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE. .SUNDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SEAS STILL IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE ON THE OCEAN...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLW SCA LVLS ALL WATERS WED AND WED NGT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. SEAS SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .EQUIPMENT... TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP EQUIPMENT...

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