Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 182337 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 637 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds to the south tonight and Friday. Low pressure passes well to the north and east on Saturday. The low will send a back door cold front through the region Sunday into Sunday night. The front returns north as a warm front on Monday ahead of a strong cold front passage late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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No changes to the forecast at this time. Upper level disturbance moving out of the Great Lakes passes to the north tonight. It will pass through dry however the northern zones may see mid and upper level clouds as seen on mid level water vapor loop. Another cold night with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the teens to mid 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper level trough swings out of the region early Friday with dry weather continuing as high pressure builds across the South. A west to southwest flow will advect in warmer temperatures with highs expected to be near normal, in the 30s to near 40. Temperatures fall into the 20s and low 30s Friday night under a mostly clear sky.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A split flow pattern is progged across the eastern states this weekend with a developing storm system and upper trough over the west. The flow over the northeast will be mainly zonal with a relatively flat trough to our north. This pattern will yield above normal temperatures and dry conditions on Saturday as readings reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. It would not be surprising if highs end up a few degrees warmer than currently advertised. The flat trough to our north will have low pressure traversing across southeast Canada on Saturday into Saturday night. Trailing this low will be a back door cold front which should gradually sink southward Sunday into Sunday night as high pressure attempts to ridge down into New England. No precip is expected with this front, but temperatures should be held down a few degrees from those on Saturday. Highs on Sunday will be in the middle 40s for most locations. Upper jet stream pattern over the CONUS amplifies further Sunday into early next week as the storm system over the west translates into the central states by Monday. Upper ridge axis moves across the region late Sunday night into Monday as well. The frontal boundary to our south will gradually lift northward as a warm front on Monday with low level warm advection and the ridge axis sliding to the east. A warm nose should develop between about 750 and 900 mb as SW flow increases ahead of the approaching upper trough. Main concern with any precipitation will be for inland locations where surface temperatures are slow to rise above freezing. The magnitude of the warm advection and rising heights aloft would indicate any chance of snow is limited with PTYPE concerns in the form of light freezing rain or sleet. This appears to be confined to Monday morning across the interior. Warmer air continues to move in Monday afternoon and evening with temperatures getting into the upper 30s and lower 40s, changing any mixed precip to plain rain. There is divergence in model solutions Monday night into Tuesday on the amplitude of the upper trough as well as the location of the closed low and track of the surface low. Where confidence has increased is with the progression of the cold front. Highest chances for moderate to locally heavy rain continue to be late Monday night into Tuesday morning in association with the cold front and best dynamics from the upper trough becoming negatively tilted. Made some minor adjustments to PoP timing, with a decreasing trend Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front moves offshore. Highs on Tuesday should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. Cooler air works back into the region for the middle of next week as high pressure takes over with temperatures near normal.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds south of the region through Friday. VFR. Winds decrease slightly tngt. The flow backs to the w aft 6Z. Wly flow on Fri backs to the sw aft 23Z. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Ocnl gusts up to 20kt thru 3Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Ocnl gusts up to 20kt thru 3Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Ocnl gusts up to 20kt possible thru 3Z. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday ngt...VFR. .Saturday...VFR. WSW winds G20-25KT. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...Chance of MVFR or lower in -SHRA. S winds G20KT late day. .Tuesday...IFR in rain. LLWS. S winds G25KT morning, W winds G30- 35KT aftn.
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&& .MARINE...
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No changes to the forecast at this time. No changes to the marine headlines as SCA conditions will continue into Friday morning with gusts on ocean waters to 25 kt. There could be occasional gusts on Friday afternoon to 25 kt with seas just nearing 5 feet on the eastern ocean waters, however confidence is not high enough to extend the SCA into Friday afternoon at this time. SCA conditions are likely on the ocean waters on Saturday as a relatively strong pressure gradient develops between high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north. There is also a small chance for a few gale force gusts. Have elected to leave out of the HWO for now as confidence is low and they may end up only being occasional. A few SCA gusts are also possible on the near shore waters. More tranquil conditions are forecast on Sunday and Monday with winds and seas below SCA levels. Winds increase to SCA levels on late Monday night into Tuesday with a cold front passage.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Dry through the weekend. A frontal system passing through late Monday night into Tuesday has the potential to bring around inch of rain. No significant hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/DS NEAR TERM...CB/19 SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...12/JC MARINE...CB/DS HYDROLOGY...CB/DS EQUIPMENT...

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