Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281912 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 312 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FAIR WX CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVE. STLT INDICATES CIRRUS IS ONLY INTO LWR MI...AS A RESULT THE MOISTURE IN THE GFS SEEMS A BIT HIGH FOR OVERNIGHT HIGH CLOUDS. THE FCST IS THEREFORE CLR OVERNIGHT. TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES AT THE OUTLYING SPOTS...HOWEVER SOME WEAK MIXING WINDS PARTICULARLY ERN LI COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OFF. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A GMOS25/MET BLEND AND MANUALLY DROPPED THE PINE BARRENS ONLY A DEGREE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM AS A RESULT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE... .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE... SWELL WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT MIDNIGHT. THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI MRNG. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT. HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SWELL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DECREASING AT THE BUOYS. THE HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WAVES THIS AFTN IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH THIS EVE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/JMC HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC

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