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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 232004
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA INITIALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...THEN
EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING - NOTING
AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE DELMARVA LIFTING NNE...AND APPROACH OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.

THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION...THE AREA BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110+ KT
250 HPA JET...AND DEVELOPING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR DETAILS.

MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER NW ZONES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOUR...AND THEN SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.

STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.

VFR CIGS AND VIS AT KLGA AND KJFK WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY
IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KJFK. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD.
WILL IMPACT KJFK AND KLGA AROUND 18Z.

FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL POP UP AT ANY TIME...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WENT PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
-TSRA. MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND STRATUS
OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND COULD MOVE IN...BRINGING VSBY
AND CIGS TO IFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
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WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 9 PM
FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TON CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.

BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT