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528
FXUS61 KOKX 030000
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front sinks southeast of the area and washes out tonight. A
Canadian cold front approaches Thursday afternoon, crossing the area
Thursday evening. High pressure builds in behind the front Thursday
night into Saturday morning, then offshore for the remainder of
the weekend. A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes Sunday
into Monday, passing slowly across the area Tuesday or even
stalling in close proximity.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A very small area of showers and thunderstorms produced heavy
rainfall in SW CT earlier this evening, between Orange in New
Haven county and Shelton in far eastern Fairfield county. Radar
and gauges across the area indicated locations received as much
as 2 inches of rainfall, which resulted in the issuance of a
flood advisory. This was a very small scale feature that persisted
for about 2 hours, but since has dissipated and moved off into
LI Sound.

Otherwise,a weak shortwave trough slides east this evening,
with weakening surface cold front sliding east. An isolated
shower is possible early near the coast. Otherwise, clearing
skies tonight.

A slightly drier airmass advects in behind the front tonight with
lows tonight in the low 70s to mid 60s. Patchy radiational fog
potential across outlying areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Scattered severe thunderstorm potential( primary threat of
  damaging winds) Thu aft/eve
* Dry, seasonably warm, and comfortable Tds for July 4th

A vigorous polar upper low track dives se thru western Quebec
Thursday/Thursday Night into northern New England Friday, with its
associated 1 std deep shortwave trough approaching the area Thursday
evening.

Deep mixing, sunny skies, and light offshore flow should allow for
temperatures to quickly warm in the morning into early afternoon
well into the 80s to around 90 for much of the area, away from
immediate south coasts with afternoon seabreeze development and far
NW areas. A slightly drier airmass will have heat indices near temps
as Tds likely mix out into into the lower to mid 60s. The very warm
airmass will set-up a marginal to locally moderately unstable
airmass across the area.

Thu aft/eve, a resultant cold front approaches from the W NY/PA.
Strong shortwave forcing and RRQ of 70 kt ulj should be a suitable
trigger in a marginal to moderately unstable airmass with fairly
strong unidirectional deep layer shear (35-40kt) for scattered
convection development along pre-frontal trough and off higher
terrain across Central NY/PA in the early to mid afternoon, as
depicted in high res CAMs. A couple of CAMS indicating isolated
storm development across far NW hills by early afternoon along
outflow of decaying Western NY morning convection, but
cape/shear/mid- level lapse rate environment appears less
favorable for this to survive into the coastal plain until the
late afternoon/evening approach of the trough.

Environment looks increasingly favorable for cold pool development
and storm organization Thu aft/eve (alignment of moderately strong
WNW steering flow and shear vectors, mid level dry air and
steepening mid-level lapse rates (6.5C), and steep low-level lapse
rates) for isolated to scattered bowing line segments with primarily
a strong to severe winds gust threat into areas from NYC and N&W in
the late afternoon. 12z CAMs have trended a bit more robust
with convective development for Thu aft/eve compared to 12 to 24
hrs ago. Steepening mid-level lapse rates late in the aft/eve
could also bring an isolated large hail threat with any stronger
discrete cells. Flash flooding threat is very low with likely
linear and progressive storm motion.

Convective intensity should lessen somewhat as the activity
progresses east over the coast in the early evening, but with
strong forcing, increasing deep layer shear and an environment
favorable for cold pool development, an isolated severe threat
for damaging wind gusts is possible all the way down to the
coast.

Improving conditions in wake of cold frontal passage Thu
evening with clearing conditions, and advection of a
cooler/drier Canadian airmass. Lows falling into the 60s for
much of the regions.

Shortwave axis slides east on Friday with deep NW flow (gusty NW
surface wind), bringing mostly sunny skies, seasonable warm temps
(lower 80s interior to mid 80s coastal plain), and comfortable Tds
(mid 50s to around 60) Friday. Temps falling back into 70s for
Friday evening with clear skies, allowing for ideal conditions for
July 4th celebrations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Gradual warmup Saturday through Monday
* A weak cold front moves into the area on Tuesday with a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms

High pressure both aloft and at the surface will build across the
area Friday night into Saturday, then build offshore for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. This will result in a
pleasant start with near normal temperatures and relatively low
humidity. However, with an approaching upper trough trough over the
Great Lakes Sunday into early next week, vertical temperatures
profiles will be on the upswing with 85h temps near 18C by Monday.
In addition, a prolonged period of southerly flow will result in
gradually increase humidity during this time.

A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned upper trough
approaches late Monday into Tuesday with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Environment is weakly sheared, but
moderately unstable ahead of the front. There is some uncertainty as
to when the front pushes through, or if it simply washes out in
close proximity Tuesday into Wednesday. This is reflected in some
increasing spread for temperatures between the 25th and 75th
percentiles. Once again, the NBM deterministic temperatures are
generally at ir below the 25th percentile during the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A nearby front dissipates as it moves further offshore this
evening. Another cold front will approach Thursday afternoon.

VFR to start. LIFR cigs are likely overnight at KGON and may
also impact KISP/KJFK.

SW winds tonight may go lgt and vrb for a few hours, before
veering NW toward daybreak Thu, then backing SW once again into
late morning. Speeds on Thu increase to 10 kt, with gusts toward
20 kt possible after 18Z, though may be more occasional at some
sites. Risk for hi-topped TSRA late aft and early eve, mainly
20Z to 00Z Fri. Brief IFR conds psbl. Drying out and return to
VFR Thu night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low cigs may make it to KJFK late tonight.

Gusts 20 kt possible Thu PM, may be more occasional.

Timing of TSRA on Thu may be off by an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and
brief MVFR or lower cond possible into early evening, otherwise
VFR. SW winds G15-20kt outside of tstms.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-18kt.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters under a weak pressure
gradient through Friday night. Tstms may pose a hazard of strong
winds, lightning, heavy rain, and locally rough seas Thu
aft/eve.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend into early next week.
Southerly flow on the ocean waters Sunday into Monday will feature
G15-20kt with seas generally around 3 ft, possibly as 4 ft late
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts anticipated through early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A lingering southerly swell of 3 ft 6-7s will produce a
moderate rip current risk on Thursday, and low to moderate on
Friday. Surf looks to be around 3 ft Thursday and around 2 ft
on Friday, possibly a bit higher across the SE Suffolk beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG/DR
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//