Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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692 FXUS61 KOKX 042203 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 603 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AREA UNDER BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH A DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH A COLD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NE WILL ALLOW FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION...PRIMARILY EAST OF NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. THEREAFTER...DECREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A GRADUALLY BACKING NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING NEAR THE SFC. THUS...THERE IS NO MENTION OF FOG. SMALL DIURNAL RANGES IN THIS REGIME WILL RESULT IN LOWS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CONTINUED INCLEMENT WITH A SLOWLY PROGRESSING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS SE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THU MORNING...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE OF THE AREA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ACROSS THE NE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC-85H...WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THERE IS REALLY NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER SUPPORT TO HONE IN ON AS FAR AS TIMING OF PCPN. GENERAL THEME IS WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL GRADUALLY ERODING...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL AROUND 50. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN A BRIEF RESPITE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. CLOSED H5 LOW WILL MEANDER FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE DELMARVA AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CLOSED LOW DEPARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN EXPECT RAIN TO END AND CLEARING TO BUILD INTO WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDS DRY OUT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY...AND THEN SW FLOW SHOULD YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES LOOKS IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BOTH REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KGON FROM TIME TO TIME BEFORE 00Z. MVFR/IFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ONCE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. FLUCTUATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE TWO CATEGORIES. MVFR MORE LIKELY TO RETURN A COUPLE OF HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU AS DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF A LITTLE TO THE EAST...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST AT KGON WILL IMPROVE. E TO NE WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS BUT THESE WILL BE INTERMITTENT IN FREQUENCY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON... .THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PERIODS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. NE WINDS G20 KT POSSIBLE WED EVENING AND ALSO AT TIMES THU AND FRI. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO DISMAL CONDITIONS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AND NW WINDS G20KT. .MON...VFR. W WINDS G25KT. && .MARINE... THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS DUE TO MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SWELLS ON THE OCEAN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. CONDS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE OCEAN WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS LI/SRN CT. OTHERWISE...VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS FORECAST TO RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. 1/4 TO 1/2" QPF POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS. 15 TO 20 KT E/ENE WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND/NYC WHERE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FT ARE FORECAST...SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS LIKELY WILL JUST BEING REACHED ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY HARBOR...EXCEPT FOR THE MANHATTAN/N QUEENS/BRONX COASTS...DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 1/2 TO 1 FT ARE LIKELY IN THOSE TWO AREAS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS E LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...IT APPEARS DEPARTURES WILL RUN AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF A FT BELOW LEVELS NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS THIS EVENING. FOR THURSDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE AROUND 1/4-1/2 FT HIGHER THAN THIS EVENING...WHILE TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THE SAME LEVELS AS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ009. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ071. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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