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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 312040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PA AND ARE
MOVING TOWARDS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH ML MUCAPE VALUES AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE LIFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE LIFTED INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO -2C.

SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT DO THINK THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE NJ...NYC...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS ROM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY... AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE A SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN
TERMINALS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

S WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY
AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS