National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070854
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...AND DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAIN BAND OF PCPN IS NOW OFFSHORE PER RADAR AND STLT. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A RESULT. ONLY SOME RESIDUAL
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND VERIFIED BY
OBS. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED DOWN TO KFRG AND KISP ON LI.

FOLLOWED THE HRRR TIL 11Z FOR THE RESIDUAL LGT PCPN THIS MRNG.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND NLY FLOW TODAY. EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD WAS INVOF PORT JERVIS...AND ADVECTING EWD...AT 330 AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODIFYING ARCTIC HI WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA TNGT. MSAS ANALYSIS AT
8Z PLACED THE 1044 CENTER OF THE HI OVER ERN MT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD TEMPS WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
PINE BARRENS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO FILTER IN FROM THE SW.

AN INCREASING HIGH OVC CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUN WITH BACKING MID AND
UPR LVL FLOW. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN IN THE AFTN. GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LIFT IS FAIRLY ROBUST AFT 18Z...SO IT WILL JUST BE A
MATTER OF HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR SATURATION AND PCPN...WHICH BASED
ON THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN
MIXED IN ON LI AND IN THE CITY. FCST HAS BEEN SPED UP WITH MOST
SPOTS WITH CHCS FOR SNOW BY DARK. BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM...LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY 5 PM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA INTO MONDAY. AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION
WILL POSSIBLY START OUT AS SNOW AND/OR SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ON
MONDAY...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES COULD HOLD ON THE WINTRY MIXTURE LONGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE WARM AIR PUSHES THROUGH.

AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY INLAND. WHATEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION THE
CITY/COAST COULD MANAGE WOULD BE WASHED AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES EXITS TO THE E OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON
SAT.

P-TYPE IS ON THE VERGE OF CHANGING OVER TO -SN AT KSWF ALTHOUGH
PRECIP IS COMING TO AN END. A DEEP MOIST COLUMN IS STILL EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE DZ AND FZDZ AS TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
LATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...RAIN WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...BUT
COULD MIX WITH -SNPL OR COMPLETELY CHANGEOVER TO -SN BRIEFLY BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN RESULTING IN DZ. FZDZ IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KHPN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TEMP IS LOW AND THEREFORE HAVE
LEFT AS PLAIN -DZ FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE MONITORED.

GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS THROUGH 10Z OR
SO...THEN IMPROVING CONDS W TO E THEREAFTER. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. ISOLD GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT KLGA/KEWR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH
SAT AFTN/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
SE WINDS 10-15 KT...BCMG NW LATE.
.MON NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.TUE...VFR. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TODAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER OFF MONTAUK...SO THE SCA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE EVE FOR THE ERN MOST OCEAN ZONE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN WITH HIPRES OVER THE WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
EQUIPMENT...