Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 301755 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 155 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CU FIELD...AIDED BY A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CONDS TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB. DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30. MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND. SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY... WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM. WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT. COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE... POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER AIR MASS TUE AFTN. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT DEVELOP BY MIDLATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE AREAS N/W OF NYC COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA THURSDAY PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SEABREEZE ALREADY THROUGH KJFK/KBDR/KGON. SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KISP/KLGA/KHON THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECT TO APPROACH BUT NOT MOVE THROUGH KTEB AND KEWR...SO ONLY BACK WINDS TO SW AT THOSE LOCATIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT. SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A TAD EARLY THURSDAY THAN IT DID TODAY. ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHNAGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHNAGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHNAGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR...EXCPEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE OCCUR. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN

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