Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 301340
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
940 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
High pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast today. A cold front
approaches late in the day Wednesday and moves through Thursday.
High pressure builds in through Saturday and moves off the
northeast coast Sunday through the beginning of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made only minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures for current
conditions, as temperatures across Long Island were lower than
forecast. With heating of the day commencing temperatures will
begin to rise more quickly and current trends and highs look to be
Surface high pressure over the area will push offshore today with
conditions rather zonal aloft. Therefore, dry conditions will
persist with just some high cloudiness and fair weather cumulus
throughout the day.
Thicknesses lower today as compared to yesterday, so temperatures
will not be nearly as warm as they have been, 5-10 degrees cooler
in most spots. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s for a
majority of the region. Some upper 70s are likely across the Twin
Forks of Long Island and southeastern Connecticut as local sea
breezes develop during the late morning into the afternoon hours.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to push farther east Tuesday night
while an area of low pressure moves toward New England from south
central Canada. Its associated cold front will approach the area
late in the day Wednesday, with just a slight chance for some
showers and thunderstorms for mainly New York City and points north
High clouds will lower and thicken somewhat Tuesday night out ahead
of the approaching cold front. This will mean lows a few degrees
warmer than Monday night.
A southeast to south flow develops late in the day Tuesday and
Tuesday night, with winds veering to the southwest by late Tuesday
night. This will reintroduce a more humid and warmer air mass. Dew
points will rise into the upper 60s along the coast Tuesday night,
while Wednesday high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
on Tuesday, in the middle to upper 80s.
A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday, and possibly
longer, at the ocean beaches via 3-4 ft very long period SE swell
(13 seconds) generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. See the
National Hurricane Center for forecasts of Gaston.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shortwave moving through central Canada and into the Great Lakes
will carve out a deepening trough for Wednesday night into Thursday.
The trough will then move to the northeast and weaken as a strong
ridge builds from the central United States. The mid and low level
flow will be weak and an associated cold front will be slow to move
through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. Will carry
chance probabilities for showers with the frontal passage. CAPE and
instability are marginal Wednesday night and decrease Thursday. Will
mention isolated thunder Wednesday night and showers Thursday.
A cool and dry Canadian high builds into the area behind the front
and moves off the northeast coast Sunday and remains into the
beginning of next week. The airmass modifies into the weekend and a
return flow develops Sunday into Monday with temperatures and dew
A high risk for strong rip currents likely continues into Friday due
to persistent SE swells from Gaston. See the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts of Gaston.
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will remain over the area today.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Light NE to E winds will develop a sea breeze component through
the rest of the morning, with the sea breeze expanding this
Winds tonight diminish and become light and variable at most
terminals. Afternoon seabreezes are expected once again on
There is a chance of low stratus or fog tonight. At this time, confidence
is low, and will leave out of the TAF for now.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Seabreeze may develop before 18Z.
KLGA TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18-20z.
KEWR TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18-20z.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18-20z.
KHPN TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18-20z.
KISP TAF Comments: Seabreeze may develop before 18Z.
.Outlook for 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Wednesday...VFR. Low chance of sub-vfr stratus or fog early
.Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with
-- End Changed Discussion --
Although guidance does continue to over predict wave heights for
the short term, 5 ft seas are occurring at buoy 44025. Seas at the
buoy have been oscillating around 5 feet as long period swell
moves into the waters. So, will continue with the SCA for the
eastern ocean zone for rough seas as these long period swells
from Gaston impact these coastal waters, more so than the central
and eastern zones. These conditions should continue over the
eastern ocean zone through about 8 pm. There after, seas will
diminish to around 4 ft. Elsewhere, seas should remain around 4 ft
through Wednesday, though seas could touch 5 ft sporadically at
times even in the central and eastern zones. Winds should remain
below 25 kt through Wednesday.
A cold front crosses the waters during Thursday. Thereafter high
pressure builds into the waters. Wednesday night into Saturday winds
and seas are expected to remain below small craft level. Southeast
swells continue into Friday from Gaston. With another system
possibly moving through the Atlantic and a persistent northeast
flow, small craft seas will become likely Saturday night and
remain into Monday.
No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate
to severe drought conditions continue. Around a quarter of an
inch of rainfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry
weather expected Thursday night into the beginning of next week.
Moderate to severe drought conditions continue. The next local
drought statement updated is scheduled for September 1st.
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --