Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020841 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 441 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BRIEFLY IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT PCPN OVER PORTIONS OF CT AND EASTERN LI. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALMOST STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTING IT PUSHING TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AS THE LOW SLIPS TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN FOR TODAY...MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS INITIALLY THIS MORNING OVER CT THEN TAPERING BACK AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. NE FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY MOIST LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY THINKING THE LOSS OF FORCING ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE THE PCPN CHANCES. THUS TAPER POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND ONLY LINGERING POPS IN THIS AFTN OVER EASTERN LI. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS COULD PUSH NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE. SIDED MORE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ANY LINGERING PCPN BY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH DRY WX THEN ON TAP THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIVER OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AS WELL DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SO SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE LOW. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE HIGH AS WELL...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. HAVE MORE OF A HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW...USING GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY AND WAA...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY. PCPN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND EXITS IN THE AFTN WITH CLEARING QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE CUT PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF IN COORDINATION WITH RIVER FORECAST CENTERS. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 INCH UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS START INCREASING LATE MONDAY WITH WAA. OVER-RUNNING PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUES WITH CHC POPS FOR LGT RA. WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FROPA PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE MADE IT DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA. LOWERED TEMPS AND MADE FOR NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ON SATURDAY WITH THE PCPN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BUT WE QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDS FORESEEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF CAPE COD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY... WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST... ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO LOW-END VFR IN/NEAR COASTAL SW CT...INCLUDING KBDR/KHPN. THIS COULD POSSIBLY SPREAD SW-WARD TOWARD NYC METRO BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF IT DOES EXPECT TO BE SHORT-LIVED...SO TAF MENTIONS WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z-22Z AT MOST TERMINALS...POSSIBLY ENDING AN HR OR TWO EARLIER AT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB/KEWR AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD SW-WARD. N-NE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD DOWN...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS JUST OVER 20 KT AT KISP/KGON/KLGA/KJFK. LESS FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE. AS VFR CONDS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THU EVENING...NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WINDOW OF OVC035 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER THAN FCST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER THAN FCST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WINDOW OF OVC035 CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER THAN FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL OVC035 VFR CIGS BEFORE 12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER THAN FCST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND FLIGHT CAT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .LATE TONIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE LATE AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. .SAT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS AND SE WINDS 15-20G25KT. COLD FROPA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDS AND W WIND G20KT. .SAT NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS EARLY AT THE CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...THEN COLD FROPA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. POST-FRONTAL W WINDS G25KT. .SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS G20KT. .MON...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MINUS NY HARBOR AS NE FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH BUILDING FURTHER OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TODAY WITH THE STRENGTHENING FLOW...WITH 5-9 FT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT FOR THE BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME OVER THOSE WATERS. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND IN FACT EXPECTING THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE SO EXTENDED THE SCA OVER THE OCEAN FOR FRIDAY. ON THE OCEAN...SCA CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT WED...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. EXPECTING AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH 3/4 UP IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE

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