Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 061140 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST IS ON TRACK. HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SUNNY...BUT COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. NW FLOW WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTN WITH H85 TEMPS BETWEEN -10C AND -15C. HIGHS WILL BE 20 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 20S. NO RECORD LOWS HAVE BEEN BROKEN AS OF 5 AM...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN. A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE AND KEEP CONDS DRY. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TEENS AT THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SAT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR ORANGE COUNTY AS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY NOT MAKE IT IN UNTIL AFT 00Z SUN. WAA UNDER A CONTINUING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS STILL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES PASSING TO THE NORTH...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW WITH PAC ORIGINS. IN ADDITION...A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND TEMPS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WED AND THU. ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE SPARED PCPN. SUBSEQUENT MODELS TRENDS THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR. NNW WINDS BCMG VAR THIS AFTN...THEN LIGHT WSW LATE DAY/EARLY EVE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS STILL REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IN INDICATING SUB-ADVSY CONDS AROUND 12Z. THE RUC HOLDS ON TO GUSTS A FEW HOURS LONGER...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE ADVSY THROUGH 10 AM. SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON SAT WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL...BUT WILL CEASE DURING THE AFTN AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN SUB-ADVSY CONDS SUN-TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY MARCH 6 EWR......12/2007 BDR......11/2007 NYC.......6/1872 LGA......14/2007 JFK......13/2007 ISP......12/2007 && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$

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