Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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963 FXUS61 KOKX 231755 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 155 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure resides over the area today. A low pressure system tracks southeast of Long Island late tonight into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday, followed by low pressure Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns for the beginning half of the upcoming holiday weekend, but low pressure may again bring some unsettled weather during the latter half. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Weak high pressure will reside over the region today resulting in tranquil conditions. Considerable mid and high level cloud cover will continue to stream into the region in broad southwest flow ahead of a larger scale upper low today...with high near to slightly below seasonable. Generally upper 60s to lower 70s for highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Mid and high-level clouds will continue to increase ahead of a short-wave that will contribute to a deepening area of low pressure of the coast. With the system passing to the south, the best chance of any rainfall will be closer to the coast, particularly across eastern Long Island and Connecticut overnight. Cloud cover and somewhat stronger northeast flow will keep low temperatures close to normal. By afternoon, the low departs giving way to south flow and near normal temperatures that will be slightly cooler near the coast in onshore flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern continues through the long term period. Another round of rainfall arrives late Wednesday night, with rainfall being most likely Thursday into Thursday night. Some elevated instability should be present, so will keep isolated thunder for Thursday and Thursday night. There could also be some fog for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a warm front not too far off to the south. The low exits to the NE on Friday, but the threat of showers will remain in the forecast. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Thursday, then return to more seasonable levels on Friday. Weak high pressure then returns Friday night and Saturday. Will go with a dry forecast and slightly above normal temperatures for now. Another low pressure system is then expected for Sunday and Monday, brining yet another round of unsettled weather to the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR with weak high pressure moving offshore this afternoon. Low pressure passes to the southeast late tonight but close enough to impact coastal terminals with a short period of MVFR in late tonight and early Wednesday. Patches of light rain are expected 07-14z Wednesday morning, mainly near the coast. N-NE at 5-10KT with a chance of afternoon sea breeze. N-NE wind increases slightly Wednesday morning. Gusts 15-20KT possible coastal terminals early Wednesday as the low passes east. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible with timing of MVFR conditions overnight and Wednesday morning. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible with timing of MVFR conditions overnight and Wednesday morning. KEWR TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR conditions overnight and Wednesday morning. KTEB TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR conditions overnight and Wednesday morning. KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR conditions overnight and Wednesday morning. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible with timing of MVFR conditions overnight and Wednesday morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday...MVFR possible at the coastal terminals in the morning....becoming VFR. .Wednesday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday. E winds G20kt with LLWS possible. .Saturday...VFR. .Sunday...MVFR/IFR developing.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels through tonight. Overnight, an initially weak pressure gradient will tighten as an area of low pressure moves up the coast. As such, marginal NE SCA winds and seas are likely to develop on the ocean late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds should subside by Wednesday afternoon...but seas may remain elevated on the ocean through Wednesday night. Low pressure will approach the waters Thursday night through Friday night, bringing the next chance if advisory level conditions. Seas will increase again to 5-6 ft late Thursday night and continue through Friday. Seas finally diminish Friday night to below 5 ft. Wind gust through this time will primarily remain between 20-25 kt. Conditions fall back below SCA levels for the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated tonight through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Increasing threat for successive rounds of minor coastal flooding for the Wed Night, Thu Morning and Thu Night high tide cycles. Greatest threat for widespread minor and potentially moderate coastal flooding appears to be with the Thursday eve/night high tide cycle as a slow moving low pressure system approaches the region...and with less than 1/2 ft of surge needed in many places to reach minor flood thresholds and 1 to 2 ft for moderate. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MD NEAR TERM...BC/MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/MD HYDROLOGY...BC/MD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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