Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241447 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1047 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure builds over the Tri-State through the weekend with our first touch of fall-like weather. The high slides offshore on Monday. A cold front with showers moves through on Tuesday. High pressure returns for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Back edge of clouds is just north of the Long Island/NYC Metro, progressing slowly SE, with clearing forecast during the next couple of hours. Winds generally north around 10 mph today. Forecast high temperatures are in the upper 60s and lower 70s, which are near normal for this time of year. There is a high risk for rip current development at ocean beaches today - water temps are still warm and many beaches are do not have lifeguards this time of year. Clear skies tonight as high pressure begins to settle over the area. There will likely be enough of a pressure gradient for at least light winds, but still think below normal lows are achievable. Forecast lows are in the lower 40s inland to the upper 40s to lower 50s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper low moves out into the north Atlantic Sunday into Monday as deep upper ridging settles over the northeast. Surface high pressure will dominate the weather both days. High temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees are forecast both days, with Sunday having the potential to be a few degrees cooler than Monday. Overall though, these temperatures are close to seasonable levels. Excellent radiational cooling conditions are possible Sunday night. Lows range from the upper 30s and lower 40s inland to lower and middle 50s in the city. Temperatures could fall a bit lower than forecast across the interior, and this could bring about a chance for some frost. For now have left out of the forecast, but will continue to monitor trends. The best chance of this occurring as it stands now would be across Orange County. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The high moves offshore Monday night as an upper trough cuts off and digs into the Great Lakes. A cold front will quickly approach Monday night ahead of the upper low. The latest models have come into much better agreement with the timing of the cold front as well as the alignment of the best lift and moisture. Have therefore increased PoPs to likely late Monday night west and then translated them eastward Tuesday morning. As the system becomes vertically stacked over the Great Lakes Tuesday morning, the cold front will surge eastward through the region. This system should bring a band of showers through, ending across the east Tuesday afternoon. The upper trough/low will remain across the eastern US through the end of the week, with models differing on how quickly it opens up and lifts out. However, the atmosphere looks dry under the trough with the deep moisture well offshore. Surface high pressure will build in for the rest of the week as the upper trough lingers. Temperatures for the long term period will be near seasonable levels. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Canadian high pressure builds in through the weekend. All areas becoming VFR by about 16Z northerly flow. .Outlook for 12Z Sunday through Wednesday... .SUN-MON...VFR. .TUE...MVFR w/areas of IFR in the morning. Becoming VFR from West to East midday. .WED...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA on the ocean waters is in effect primarily for seas around 5 ft through at least 18Z Sunday. This is due to a residual SE swell from well offshore Tropical Cyclone Karl. There is some uncertainty as to how long these swells will linger. Gusts around 25 kt on the ocean continue through middle morning before falling closer to 20 kt this afternoon as the gradient weakens and high pressure builds over the waters. Otherwise, sub-sca conditions are forecast through Tuesday. Seas could build close to 5 ft on the ocean as a frontal boundary lingers offshore and high pressure builds over the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant precipitation is forecast through Monday. A cold front moves through Tuesday with a good chance of widespread showers. However, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JMC/Tongue MARINE...DS HYDROLOGY...DS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.