Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 222036 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES RIDING THIS FLOW...EACH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. AS OF 19Z...WATCHING A WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NY/EASTERN PA...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE NEARER THE COAST WHERE THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS PRODUCED A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE ALL DAY BKN-OVC SKY COVER. AS SUCH...THINKING ANY PCPN THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL BE RESTRICTED WEST/NORTH OF NYC METRO UNDER THE BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FORCING WEAK AND LITTLE LIFT AT THE SFC...CAPPED POPS AT LOW END CHC...THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LVL TROUGH BEGINS PIVOTING OUT OF THE REGION AS THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THEN INTRODUCED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTN WITH THE PASSING OF THE FINAL SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE PASSAGE OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THINKING THE BEST CHC...IF ANYTHING DOES FORM...WILL BE WEST OF NYC METRO. BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF OCCURRING AND OF ANY COVERAGE...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE MOST THE AREA REMAINS DRY. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EARLY SAT NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CONTINUAL ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SKIES FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS TO DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...DROPPING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IMPROVING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MAINLY VFR TO LOCALIZED MVFR TRANSITION TO MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CIGS COULD POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 1K-1.5KFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NEAR KSWF AND KLGA/KJFK. GENERALLY FLOW AROUND 070 TO 110 DEGREES AROUND 10-13 KT. KLGA MORE NE FLOW UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2K-3KFT COULD CONTINUE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2K-3KFT COULD CONTINUE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. NE FLOW COULD LAST 1 HOUR LATER THAN INDICATED IN TAF BEFORE SWITCHING TO MORE E FLOW. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 2K-3KFT BEFORE 02Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 2K-3KFT BEFORE 02Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 2K-3KFT BEFORE 02Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 2K-3KFT BEFORE 02Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED... .SAT...BECOMING VFR WITH ENE FLOW. .SUN-WED...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW MAY BUILD THE OUTER EDGES OF THE OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 3-4 FT FOR THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. GUSTS AT MOST WILL REACH 20 KTS ON THE OCEAN. QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS EXPECTED THEN TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WATERS FROM THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... ANY SHOWER THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOWING MOVING IN NATURE...WHICH COULD RESULT UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/SEARS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JM MARINE...FIG/SEARS HYDROLOGY...FIG/SEARS

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