Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 242033 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 433 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AFTER A VERY DRY AND WINDY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVELS ALSO REMAIN DRY. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEG...SO CONVERTED PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND ADDED PARTS OF NE NJ AND ERN LONG ISLAND TO THE WARNING AS WELL. WITH ISOLD NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ALSO POSSIBLE IN WRN SUFFOLK COUNTY ESPECIALLY AS YOU GO FARTHER EAST...ISSUED A FROST ADVY THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY DRY AIR MASS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA... MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW. AS SUCH... LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...BECOMING STEADIER OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING ON SAT AND AN UPPER LOW WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH...KEPT CHANCE POP THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES TRACKING INTO THE N ATLANTIC. A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY FRI...AND OFFSHORE FRI AFTN. VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU 00Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TNGT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT BY 4-6Z. WINDS VEER TO THE SE FRI MRNG WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BLW 10 KT. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI AFTN...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR IN RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. POCKETS OF MVFR SAT AFTN POSSIBLE WITH SHRA. .SUN-TUE...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY FOR NEAR SHORE GUSTS AROUND 35 KT. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT. THE ERN-MOST SOUND AND OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE A BRIEF PD OF SE GALE FORCE GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT NOT OF LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT A GALE WATCH. SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AFTER THE LOW PASSES EAST. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUE-WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. MINIMUM RH NEAR 10 PERCENT...COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE... LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SLOW/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL AND WINDS DIMINISH. BETTER CONDS EXPECTED FRI VIA LIGHTER WINDS...AND HIGHER IN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ005>012. NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>071- 078>081-177-179. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079- 081. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072>075-176- 178. FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ078-080. NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002>004- 103>105-107. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MMD/FIG/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...MMD/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...MMD/GOODMAN LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JMC/MET MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...MMD/FIG

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