Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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720 FXUS61 KOKX 290243 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1043 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO POPS/T/TD LATE THIS EVE. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND A JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND OVER THE OCEAN WATERS S OF LONG ISLAND LATE THIS EVE. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MOVE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS WELL. AS THE FORCING SLIDES E TONIGHT...THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED BY MORNING. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH THE CHC FOR SHOWERS RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST... WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY. UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY. DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AFT INTO FRI EVE...FROM W TO E. LIGHT SE WINDS BACK TO THE E OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS. .SAT...VFR. .SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. .TUE...VFR. && .MARINE... QUIET TONIGHT...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRI. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD. && .HYDROLOGY... ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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