Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261938 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SATURDAY....FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO TONIGHT... AT 19Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A TRACK INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS LONG ISLAND SE CT MAINLY RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ON THE WARMER SIDE SINCE COLUMN COOLING VIA LATENT HEAT ABSORPTION OF MELTING SNOW CANNOT TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WAS MARKED EARLIER BY A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THUNDER-SNOW ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NYC...AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE BURBS JUST TO THE NORTH/WEST. ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE NJ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY NORTH OF I-287...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND QPF TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER...BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12 INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO THE SOUTH RIDES UP INTO THESE AREAS FROM SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE. THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES SE OF MONTAUK. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH A LINGERING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALL CONTROLLED BY THE VORTEX SPINNING JUST N OF HUDSON BAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FLATTENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. NOT TOO MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS/LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THU NIGHT AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SAT...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME LIFT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE`LL REMAIN WARM SECTORED INTO SUN WITH WAA ENSUING. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL SAT...THEN NEAR NORMAL SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS ARE NOW A BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EC...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS. TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FROPA ALSO IS APPARENT...THE GFS/CMC A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC. THE BIG CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUNS IS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRES IN FROM THE N QUICKER...SUPPRESSING THE FRONT WELL TO THE S WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING*** DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN RA/SN/PL. KSWF ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS WINTRY MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST...MAINLY A WINTRY MIX OVERALL. GUSTY NE FLOW BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS EVE. THE WINTRY MIX FORECAST AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTS OF RA/SN/PL. MOST LIKELY RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...4-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH OR LESS KISP/KGON. SEE DETAILS IN COMMENTS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 4-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON... .THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR. .FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES. .SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR. .MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE WATERS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM AROUND 950 MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS...EXPECT A PF OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END. SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS. SCA SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THU NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRI. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD COME CLOSE SUN/SUN NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS COULD REACH MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... LIQUID EQUIVALENT AF OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. 2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED SPLASHOVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073- 176. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004- 103-105. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104- 106>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345-353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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