Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 242216
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
616 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through tonight with heights rising. Surface high pressure remains
centered off the northeast coast. A light east to northeast flow
will continue tonight. Latest high resolution guidance indicating
potential for stratus/patchy fog development along the coast overnight
with a developing shallow inversion and moisture pooling
underneath it with light onshore flow. This is largely over
eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Have increased
sky cover in these locations and also have added patchy fog
wording to the forecast.
Lows will range from the lower and middle 50s away from urban
centers to the lower and middle 60s across the NYC metro.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development through
early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.
With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
There is a moderate risk for rip current development Saturday at
the Atlantic Ocean beaches.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
Only exception appears to be south coastal terminals overnight
into daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result
in ifr or lower conditions. Moderate confidence in occurrence at
kisp/kgon...low confidence at kbdr/kjfk.
SE winds at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt late this evening while
backing to more e then ne overnight. Winds return once again to SE
flow Saturday late morning and afternoon...likely increasing to 10
to 15 kt with occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: FEW to SCT 700-1000 ft cigs possible after
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected
KISP TAF Comments: FEW to SCT 700-1000 ft cigs possible after
00z. Increasing probability after 03-04z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...Mainly VFR except for late
Saturday Night with MVFR patchy fog.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday
night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Saturday night.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.