Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011814 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 214 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CT IN ASSOC WITH A MESOVORT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AFTER PRODUCING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HARDEST HIT AREAS WERE MIDDLESEX...NEW HAVEN...AND WESTERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI THIS AFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. TO THE WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. HIGH IN THE LOW TO MID 60S LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE WITH A FEW SPOTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AROUND NYC METRO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED WITH RIDGING ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT. FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST CONCERNS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. FURTHER WEST...THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING 20 DEGREES RIGHT OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU AFTERNOON...VFR POSSIBLE LATE. NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT. .FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND. .SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT. .SUN-MON...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$

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