Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241803 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 103 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure passes to the south through this evening, then weakens later tonight into Saturday as offshore low pressure passes well to the southeast. A cold front will move through Saturday night. High pressure builds in Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold front will move across on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor changes, mainly to dew points, as mixing allows for slightly lower dew points. Otherwise forecast on track. Tranquil conditions prevail through today as upper zonal flow gradually becomes southwesterly. Low and mid level weak warm advection will continue through the day. There will be little moisture through the atmosphere with weak subsidence. High temps are the warmer of the GFS/NAM MOS numbers, with temperatures near climatological normals. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... With little moisture into tonight conditions will remain clear with just some high thin cirrus at most. Winds should be light, but with light SW sfc flow and WAA off the deck do not expect temps to be as low as Thursday night, with a wide range of temperatures across the forecast area. On Sat, the approaching cold front will be preceded by an increase in afternoon clouds from NYC north/west, and maybe some sprinkles well inland. Better chances for showers will exist Sat night out east as the front moves across, and as its associated upper trough amplifies, with better lift via coupled upper jet streaks. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will build in from Sunday through Tuesday with a warming trend into Tuesday, near seasonal normals. A cold front is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture associated with this front is expected to dissipate as it approaches our area and the frontal passage may end up being precipitation free. Even with the frontal passage, temperatures are forecast to be above normal into Wednesday. High pressure builds back on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will gradually give way to an approaching cold front over the Great Lakes, which passes through region Saturday evening. S-SW winds generally 10kt or less, occasional gusts to the mid teens possible for south coastal terminals tonight into Saturday. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday Afternoon/Night...Low chance of -SHRA and MVFR with frontal passage in the evening. SW gusts 15 to 20 kt. Windshift from SW to NW in the evening. NW Gusts 20-30KT late night, with an isolated rain/snow shower possible. .Sunday...VFR. NW winds G20-30kt. .Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. W winds G15-25kt. .Tuesday...VFR. SW winds G15-25kt. .Tuesday Night-Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas forecast on track, with no changes at this time. Winds and seas will remain below small craft conditions into tonight as high pressure passes to the south of the waters. However, ocean seas out east could approach 5 ft tonight via combo of SW winds increasing to near 15 kt and incoming SE swell. Confidence in this is not high, so have capped seas during that time at 4 ft for now, and will reassess later today. A better chance for SCA conds will exist Sat afternoon and evening as SW flow increases to near 20 kt, then later Sat night into Sunday on all waters, with post-frontal NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt. Wind gusts could briefly approach gale force on the outer ocean waters early Sunday morning. Minimal SCA conds could continue on the ocean into Sunday night or Monday morning, then return on Tue ahead of the next frontal system. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Goodman/MET SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM... AVIATION...DW MARINE...Goodman HYDROLOGY...Goodman

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