Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 251447
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
A cold front over southeastern New York and southern New
England will drift south through the Tri-State Region today. An
unsettled weather pattern continues Sunday into the middle of
next week. Cold front to our south returns to the region Sunday
night into Monday and moves offshore Monday night. Another
frontal system approaches on Tuesday and moves across Tuesday
night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday ahead of
the next front on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mild temps expected today for coastal plain despite mostly
cloudy skies...with only weak caa on offshore flow...pushing
temps well into the 50s to around 60 for LI and lower 60s for
NYC metro and NE NJ. Mid to upper 50s for coastal CT...with
highs around 50 for interior.
Spotty light rain shower or sprinkle activity expected along
the nearly stationary baroclinic zone across the coastal plain
into this afternoon. Mainly dry across northern zones. This
activity should slowly sink south through the afternoon.
Meanwhile...upper jet streak induced shower activity across
central NY/New England will likely not approach northern
portions of the Tri- State until late in the day. By that
time...it is likely to weaken to scattered shower/sprinkle
activity as jet forcing moves east.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Warm/moist advection will continue above the surface in broad
westerly then southwesterly flow, while cooler conditions at the
surface behind the cold front will maintain a strong inversion
over the area. Overall a favorable set up for stratus
tonight...but low-levels may be too dry for fog/drizzle tonight.
Increasing chances for drizzle/light shower activity as the day
progresses Sunday as low-level flow veers
easterly...particularly across far W/NW hills with upslope lift.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday as a short wave
passes through the area, allowing a warm front to return
northward. A second short wave quickly follows for Tuesday into
Wednesday, with the attendant surface trough/cold front moving
through Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be
above normal as southerly flow strengthens following the warm
frontal passage. By Wednesday, flow returns to a west-northwest
direction with subsidence, enhanced by downslope flow and
clearing skies again leading to another potentially above normal
temperature day. The unsettled pattern continues through the end
of the week, with a degree of uncertainty for Thursday and
Friday depending on the overall evolution of a series of upper
waves emanating from the Pacific.
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moving slowly south through the terminals will move
south of the area this afternoon. High pressure builds to the
north and into the region tonight.
VFR conditions are expected to remain until mid
afternoon...with low potential for MVFR cigs thereafter.
IFR cigs are possible tonight, with a low prob for IFR
visibilities if drizzle and fog develop.
There is uncertainty as to the timing of the cold front passage
and the developing lowering conditions, and how low ceilings
will become. As high pressure moves in late tonight, there may
be some improvement in ceilings.
SW to W winds 10 KT or less, to light and variable will shift to
the NE around 10 KT. The NE to E flow remains through 12Z
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...MVFR to IFR, with LIFR or lower possible.
Periods of rain, drizzle and fog.
.Monday night-Tuesday night...MVFR or lower possible.
.Wednesday...becoming VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible in the
A back door cold front is expected to move slowly across the
waters today. Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet are running
4 to 6 feet due to a southerly swell. With the passage of the
cold front an east to northeast flow develops and persists at
least through the weekend as the cold front remains south of the
waters. The long fetch easterly flow will allow for ocean seas
to remain at minimal small craft levels into at least Sunday and
possibly into the beginning of the week. There may be a brief
period late this afternoon into this evening when ocean seas
will be below small craft levels.
With seas being the main hazard have converted to a small craft for
hazardous seas, Sunday west of Fire Island Inlet, and today through
Sunday east of Fire Island Inlet.
From late Monday through Monday night, sub-sca conditions are
forecast with an overall weak pressure gradient. Seas may build
again to around 5 feet Tuesday as a cold front passes through the
waters. Otherwise winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into
Measurable rain chances gradually increase late Sunday through
Monday, with around a half inch to an inch accumulation overall.
Unsettled conditions will continue through the week. With rain
expected over a broad period of time, no hydrologic concerns are
anticipated at this time.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT
Sunday for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday