Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 242216 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 616 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast through tonight with heights rising. Surface high pressure remains centered off the northeast coast. A light east to northeast flow will continue tonight. Latest high resolution guidance indicating potential for stratus/patchy fog development along the coast overnight with a developing shallow inversion and moisture pooling underneath it with light onshore flow. This is largely over eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Have increased sky cover in these locations and also have added patchy fog wording to the forecast. Lows will range from the lower and middle 50s away from urban centers to the lower and middle 60s across the NYC metro. There is a moderate risk for rip current development through early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z. Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and builds westward Saturday night. With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night, and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development Saturday at the Atlantic Ocean beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage. ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until Thursday morning. Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the west. Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF period. Only exception appears to be south coastal terminals overnight into daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result in ifr or lower conditions. Moderate confidence in occurrence at kisp/kgon...low confidence at kbdr/kjfk. SE winds at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt late this evening while backing to more e then ne overnight. Winds return once again to SE flow Saturday late morning and afternoon...likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal terminals. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: FEW to SCT 700-1000 ft cigs possible after 00z. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected KISP TAF Comments: FEW to SCT 700-1000 ft cigs possible after 00z. Increasing probability after 03-04z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...Mainly VFR except for late Saturday Night with MVFR patchy fog. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late. .Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. .Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Saturday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue afternoon and evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to 1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET NEAR TERM...DS/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...JM/NV MARINE...Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.