Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241957 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 357 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... BACK EDGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WITH SOME CU BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...LOOKING AT A CLEARING TREND WITH A SMALL CAVEAT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF INTERACTS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR. N WINDS AROUND 10KT INTO THIS EVENING. SE FLOW LIKELY DEVELOPS AT KGON...AND PROBABLY FOR KISP AND KBDR THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHC OF SEA BREEZE BACKING WINDS SW FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING 22-23Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO ESE COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO...OR SHIFT MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUE... .FRI PM-SAT...VFR. .SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .TUE...VFR. && .MARINE... RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JC MARINE...FIG/DW HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW

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