Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220551 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP DEEPEN A SFC LOW OFF THE DELMARVA. AT THE SAME TIME...A 1030S HI OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO EASE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY BACKED TO THE N ACROSS THE CWA. THE STABLE FLOW WILL REDUCE TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT FOG. MAINTAINED PATCHY. LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN WILL OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA. RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT. HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST ON TUE. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME. ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. BEST GUESS FOR TIMING WOULD BE THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN ON AND OFF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS BECOMING E/NE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY THROUGH THU. STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...PW MARINE... HYDROLOGY...

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