Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 132105 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 405 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS LOW TRAVELS TO NEAR OR OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA TNGT. PW/S DROP TO BLW 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...SO WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP GOING RIGHT THRU THE NGT. PEAK GUST POTENTIAL THRU ABOUT 3Z...THEN WINDS ALOFT GRADUALLY DECLINE INTO SUN MRNG. NO CHANGES TO THE WIND CHILL PRODUCTS TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE WRNG APPEARS TO BE MRGNL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL BE RETAINED IN THE WSW PRODUCT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY SUN NGT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS THRU THE DAY...THEN LGT AND VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT. CLR SKIES DURING THE DAY...THEN HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD...IF THEY DO INDEED DEVELOP...HELP TO LIMIT LOW TEMPS. STILL WENT BLW GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME NATURE OF THE AIRMASS COMBATING THE PULL TOWARDS CLIMO. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE HIGH...SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW LATE COULD ALLOW TEMPS AT THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE LI COAST...TO RISE BEFORE SUNRISE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CURRENT LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL REGION BY TUESDAY BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ITS PVA WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND COULD RESULT IN A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTAL. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THOUGH AND PARAMETERS SUCH AS WET BULB COOLING...SE FLOW...AND THE VORTICITY ADVECTION AS WELL AS TIMING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. INITIALLY MONDAY...VERY COLD WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THESE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WOULD OCCUR DURING MONDAY EVENING. SO...THIS BEARS MONITORING FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS IN THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MODELS HAVE A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL REGIONS. THE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION GETTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW THEN MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ECMWF IS WELL WEST WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN AND WOULD THEREFORE BE THE MOST WARM OF THE SOLUTIONS. HENCE...MORE RAIN WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS WELL. TOOK A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE AND ESSENTIALLY THE COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE MAINLY RAIN BY LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FARTHER INTERIOR...SE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER AND WILL BE BLOCKED BY HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREFORE...THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AND WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING. MONDAY NIGHT...THESE LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AS WARMER AIR ALOFT TRANSITIONS THE PRECIPITATION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH SFC TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR REACHING ANY SORT OF WARNING/WATCH CRITERIA. SEE HYDRO SECTION REGARDING FLOOD POTENTIAL AND RAIN AMOUNTS. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT WITH ITS PVA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL BKN DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT THROUGH AROUND 22-23Z. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF ISOLATED -SHSN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. NW WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PRIMARILY TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE/310 MAGNETIC...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT WIND DIRECTION OCCASIONALLY BEING AT 300 TRUE. WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25G25-35KT...WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KT...INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH G15-20KT BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPS FROM W TO E LATE MORNING/INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. S WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING. A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN AT S TERMINALS...AND SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. .TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING WINTRY MIX N TERMINALS CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN TAPERING OFF LATE. IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. LLWS IN THE AM...THEN NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...
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GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN MRNG. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY...WITH ALL AREAS ACTUALLY BLW SCA LVLS SUN NGT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCA TO GALE CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GALES TREND TO SCA WINDS LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS TREND BELOW SCA THEREAFTER BUT SCA OCEAN SEAS REMAIN.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS...THIS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND FOR THESE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHILE MORE PRECIP WILL RELATIVELY BE IN THE FROZEN FORM MAKING FOR LESS RAIN...THE RAIN ADDED WITH SNOW MELT COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINOR AT THIS POINT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS WITH THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS COULD BE MET ACROSS MOST TIDAL GAUGES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS TO BE REACHED...AND 3 TO 3 1/2 FT FOR MODERATE THRESHOLDS.
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&& .CLIMATE... WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST TODAY INTO SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS... STATION......RECORD/FORECAST MINIMUM FOR 2/14 CENTRAL PARK.....2 (1916) / 0 LAGUARDIA........1 (1979) / 1 KENNEDY..........4 (1979) / 2 ISLIP............7 (2015) / 1 NEWARK...........0 (1979) / 0 BRIDGEPORT.......3 (2015*) / -2 STATION......RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FORECAST HIGH FOR 2/14 CENTRAL PARK....17 (1979) / 14 LAGUARDIA.......15 (1979) / 15 KENNEDY.........17 (1979) / 16 ISLIP...........26 (1987) / 14 NEWARK..........15 (1979) / 15 BRIDGEPORT......18 (1979) / 14 *IN 1979 AS WELL && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>012. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ072>075- 078>081-176>179. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>071. NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ004-006- 103>108. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ002. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-350-353- 355. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-340. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ338. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-338. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JMC/JM HYDROLOGY...JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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