Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 050533 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 133 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND THEN DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS DRIER AIR A BIT SLOWER WORKING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO. HAVE EVEN INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE IS DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...OTHERWISE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION. E/NE FLOW WILL PUSH DRIER AIR DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NYC TO THE 50S IN MOST SUBURBS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. NE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LIKELY GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS DUE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL LIE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH...WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND 1000-500MB HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 17-19C WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING A HEAT WAVE (3 OR MORE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90 OR GREATER) ACROSS NYC...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING ONE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY IS NOT FORECAST TO GET ABOVE 90 IN THE METRO AREA...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN 1 HEAT WAVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH AND ACCORDING TO LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY OF CENTRAL PARK FROM 1876-2011...ONLY ABOUT 4% OF HEAT WAVES OCCUR IN SEPTEMBER. ADDITIONAL LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWS THAT THE MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING A 3-DAY HEAT WAVE ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE SECOND DAY BEING THE WARMEST. GIVEN LESS SOLAR INSOLATION THAN IN AUGUST...WOULD THINK THAT WE WOULD NOT GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S...92 OR 93...DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS HAS BEEN AN UNUSUALLY WARM SUMMER. DESPITE THE WARM CONDITIONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AS HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY SO. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER. KBDI VALUES ARE BETWEEN 400 AND 600 ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...TRANSLATING TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30S...MAINLY ACROSS NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MIN RH VALUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER AND MORE AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL SEE RH VALUES IN THE 30S AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE MODELS THEREAFTER WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT SOME TERMINALS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS VEERS SE AROUND 10KT WITH SEA BREEZES EARLY AFTN. WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS WILL GUST 25-30KT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE BUT AT DECREASING SPEEDS ON SATURDAY. SEAS CURRENTLY 4- 5FT PER RECENT BUOY OBS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE 5-6FT RANGE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...PEAKING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GS/DW NEAR TERM...GS/DW SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JC MARINE...GS HYDROLOGY...JP/GS

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