Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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642 FXUS61 KOKX 240154 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 854 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front approaches tonight and then retreats back to the north as a warm front on Friday. High pressure will remain steady over the western Atlantic through Friday night. A frontal system approaches Saturday and crosses the region Saturday Night. High pressure builds over the area during the early part of next week. A warm front moves through Tuesday, with the attendant low and cold front moving through by mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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With the NARRE not indicating any reformation of the fog overnight, and low level winds remaining 20 to 30 KT, along with clouds overspreading the region in advance of a cold front, little to indicate that widespread fog develops. Only patchy fog, more than 3 statue miles, remains across southern Connecticut. With the cloud cover and weak cold advection not expecting temperatures inland to fall off to previous lows and raised overnight lows. Along the coast temperatures will remain nearly steady or fall a couple of degrees overnight. A line of isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms extended from northeastern Pennsylvania to south central Pennsylvania. There is still some weak surface instability into western Orange county, along with minimal CAPE. As the line advances eastward possible a rumble of thunder could occur into extreme western Orange county. Otherwise just isolated showers. Adjusted the probabilities, keeping the best chances mainly across Connecticut and north of New York City, as cold front is not expected to push farther south and best forcing will remain in that areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak frontal boundary retreats to the north as a warm front during the day on Friday. Models have come into better agreement with this scenario, which is reasonable given a stronger southerly flow developing ahead of system strong shortwave across the central states. Low stratus and areas of fog will start the day with potential for dense fog during the morning commute, especially near the coast. The forecast uncertainly lies with how quickly the low stratus and fog erode. As was the case on Thursday, it will likely erode away north and west of the coast by early afternoon and could linger near the coast into much of the afternoon. This will play a role in high temperatures. With anomalously warm air in place, highs should have no trouble reaching the middle and upper 60s north and west of the NYC metro. These numbers could be higher dependent on how quickly clouds erode. Further east, temperatures will likely be held down in the upper 50s and lower 60s due to onshore flow and longer duration of clouds/fog. Stratus and fog are once again possible Friday night with conditions remaining unseasonably warm. Some light rain or drizzle is also possible as a stronger onshore flow develops ahead of approaching cold front from the west. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Persistent low-level warm/moist advection will maintain a chance of stratus, patchy fog and drizzle beneath the inversion through Saturday morning. High temperatures will once again be close to 10 to 20 degrees above climatological normals, though perhaps a few degrees colder than Friday closer to the coast due to onshore flow. By Saturday evening, a potent vort max and attendant cold front approach the region. At this time it appears a narrow line of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will move through ahead of the front with a quick 0.25-0.50 inches of rain possible. A few stronger gusts may mix to the surface as the front passes, given wind speeds 30-40 kt just above the surface. Temperatures and dew points will slowly fall Saturday night, though will still remain above normal as winds remain strong and gusty through the night. The stronger winds will continue through Sunday, with high temperatures closer to climatological normals. High pressure will pass to the south Sunday night into Monday, with increased cloud cover between the high and an approaching area of low pressure to the west maintaining mild temperatures across the region. Thereafter, confidence decreases rapidly, though general consensus indicates a warm frontal passage Tuesday followed by increasing chances of precipitation ahead of the associated slowly approaching low pressure and attendant cold front. However, model differences are very large, as the systems for early to late week are still over the data sparse areas of the Pacific, and are not yet initialized well. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front stalls north of the city terminals tonight before shifting back north as a warm front Friday. Low confidence in flight categories tonight. It appears that conds are trending better than originally forecast. Will continue to forecast eventual IFR at all terminals, but it is possible that some terminals end up prevailing at VFR all night. -SHRA possible north of the city, but not significant enough to include in TAFs. Winds will be S-SW under 10 kt for coastal terminals, and light and variable elsewhere. For Friday, eventually becoming VFR by afternoon - if sub-vfr conditions actually materialize tonight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: VFR potentially lasts the entire night or at least SUB-VFR is delayed until 06-09z. KLGA TAF Comments: VFR potentially lasts the entire night or at least SUB-VFR is delayed until 06-09z. KEWR TAF Comments: VFR potentially lasts the entire night or at least SUB-VFR is delayed until 06-09z. KTEB TAF Comments: VFR potentially lasts the entire night or at least SUB-VFR is delayed until 06-09z. KHPN TAF Comments: VFR potentially lasts the entire night or at least SUB-VFR is delayed until 05-08z. KISP TAF Comments: VFR potentially lasts the entire night or at least SUB-VFR is delayed until 05-08z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday night-Saturday...Sub-VFR possible Friday night into Saturday morning before improving back to VFR. .Saturday night...MVFR likely with rain. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...VFR early...becoming MVFR. Chance of rain or snow. .Tuesday...Possible MVFR in showers. && .MARINE...
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Long period east to southeast swell of around 10 seconds was across the ocean waters and seas have built to around 4 feet with seas fluctuating to near 5 feet. With seas periodically near 5 feet will not issue a small craft advisory at this time. Otherwise, high pressure over the western Atlantic brings a persistent southerly flow through Friday night, but winds and seas will remain below small craft levels. Winds and seas will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday ahead of a cold front, and likely remain elevated through Sunday following the frontal passage. Winds and waves will gradually subside Sunday night into Monday as high pressure moves south of the area. The next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will be Monday night into Tuesday as winds strengthen following a warm frontal passage. Winds and seas may remain at or near Small Craft Advisory conditions through late week ahead of a cold front.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... A quarter to one half of an inch of rain is likely Saturday. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the next week. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Friday February 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature. Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........75 (1985) 64 LaGuardia...........73 (1985) 63 Kennedy.............60 (1984) 60 Islip...............59 (2000) 58 Newark..............73 (1985) 66 Bridgeport..........60 (2016) 58 The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Friday February 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record Max Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------ ---------------------------- Central Park........54 (1985) 54 LaGuardia...........51 (1985) 54 Kennedy.............47 (1984) 50 Islip...............44 (1984) 49 Newark..............47 (1985) 53 Bridgeport..........39 (1984) 47 The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Saturday February 25, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record Max Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------ ---------------------------- Central Park........51 (1930) 48 LaGuardia...........49 (1996) 48 Kennedy.............46 (1996) 47 Islip...............47 (1996) 46 Newark..............47 (1996) 47 Bridgeport..........44 (1996) 46 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/DS NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...JC MARINE...MD/DS/MET HYDROLOGY...MD/DS CLIMATE...JE

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