Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271847 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 147 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SUNDAY...AND THEN STALL OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY BRING A BRIEF MOSTLY CLOUDY PD TO ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTIES...BUT DOWNSLOPE W FLOW SHOULD THIN THIS OUT SOMEWHAT. SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST TEMP TREND. SEA BREEZES SHOULD PUT AN END TO WARMING HOWEVER ALONG SOUTH FACING COASTLINES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN URBAN NE NJ...WITH MID 50S IN MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND LOWER 50S FOR SOUTH FACING SHORELINES AND THE HIGHER INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MOST PLACES AND LIKELY POP WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND WELL INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED/FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SHOT OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LAGGING H8 COLD FRONT...AND LIFT VIA PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK TO THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN A PD OF RAIN FOR MOST PLACES...ESPECIALLY NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THESE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. GFS/NAM MOS BLEND ACCEPTED FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEG EITHER SIDE OF 50. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING AS THE H8 COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE SE...BUT SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR VERY MUCH...EVEN NORTH/WEST AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET SWING ACROSS. CAA ON NW-N FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT SHOULD LOWER TEMPS TO THE 30S...POSSIBLY JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE VERY STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MON WITH A MAGNITUDE OF AT LEAST 1050 MB. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SEWD AND IT ASSOCIATED VERY COLD AIR MASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME IT GETS ACROSS THE LOWER 48...HOWEVER WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVES ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA HELP TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT GFS...GEFS AND SREF ENS MEMBERS WERE INDICATING THAT PORTIONS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND COULD BE BRUSHED BY SOME LIGHT PCPN...WHICH WOULD FALL AS SNOW...LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO THE S. HAVE ADDED SCHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL CONTINUE BACKING TO S/SW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AT KSWF. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVER CITY TERMINALS AS -SHRA MOVE EAST SUNDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU... .SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA. .SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR .MON-THU...VFR. && .MARINE... SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THIS PLUS INCOMING SWELLS OF 2-3 FT SHOULD BUILD COMBINED OCEAN SEAS TO 5 FT E ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET...SO SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE FROM 4-10 AM SUNDAY. COULD SEE AN OCNL 25-KT GUST FARTHER WEST ON THE OCEAN NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT SO SCA WAS NOT ISSUED ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS WILL BE TUE-TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. && .HYDROLOGY... QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM... AVIATION...DS MARINE...GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

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