Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 180255 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1055 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TRACK AND MADE EDITS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. TEMPS WERE DROPPING A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. LAV DATA ALSO INDICATING LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL ADVECTING IN BY 07-09Z. STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING OFF A FEW MORE HOURS...EXPECT SOME FROST TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS. SO WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KFOK GETS TO 32 DEGREES BUT FREEZING TEMPS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE WARNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S. FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRI. AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE TO THE E...STARTING TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NJ ON THE FOG IR SAT. AN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THESE TO THE W...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF SAT DATA FOR TRENDS BEFORE INCLUDING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT KEWR/KTEB TONIGHT. THUS THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS A CHALLENGE. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MOVES ACROSS LI AND NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. THIS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH HAVE EXTENDED THE STRATUS INTO KLGA WITH TEMPO`S CONTINUING FOR THE TIME BEING AT KEWR/KTEB. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCT OUT MID-LATE FRI MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR. .TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.
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&& .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER. SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-078>081- 177-179. NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GC NEAR TERM...BC/LN SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...GC AVIATION... MARINE...BC/GC HYDROLOGY...BC/GC

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