Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241955 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 355 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast through tonight with heights rising. Surface high pressure remains centered off the northeast coast. Any daytime cumulus development will begin to dissipate this evening toward sunset. And any cirrus from convection over southern New Jersey will thin as high pressure dominates with increasing subsidence. A light east to northeast flow will continue tonight, however low levels are expected to remain dry and fog and stratus are not anticipated. There is a moderate risk for rip current development through early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z. Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and builds westward Saturday night. With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night, and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday night. There is a moderate risk for rip current development Saturday at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage. ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until Thursday morning. Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the west. Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF period. Only exception could be GON and ISP overnight into daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result in MVFR or lower conditions. The chances for this are low. All TAFs currently reflect VFR through Saturday. Winds E becoming SE this afternoon at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt tonight while backing to more easterly. Some gusts are possible to 20 kt this afternoon. Winds return once again to SE flow Saturday late morning and afternoon but more in the 5-10 kt range. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt remain possible before 23Z. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible before 23Z. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible before 22Z. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Timing of more SE wind could be delayed 1-3 hours compared to forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...Mainly VFR except for late Saturday Night with MVFR patchy fog. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late. .Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. .Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Saturday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue afternoon and evening.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to 1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...JM MARINE...Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET

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