Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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060 FXUS61 KOKX 180606 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 206 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through the weekend. As it passes east early next week, rain chances increase as low pressure and a cold front approach. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Forecast on track. High pressure building in resulting in light winds and a clear sky. Weak warm advection may result in slowly rising temperatures overnight. Low temperatures might be a few degrees too low and may occur earlier than forecast. A widespread frost is not likely overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As high pressure moves in, a southwest flow will develop leading to a gradual warm up in temperatures beginning on Wednesday. Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s with plenty of sun. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aloft, initial weak shortwave passes with no impact on our weather. Ridge builds late this week and through the weekend. Thereafter, differences in the global models arise with regard to timing and eventual strength of upstream trough as it moves toward the east coast Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, a weak cold front passes Thursday night into early Friday. Otherwise, high pressure builds late this week, and passes off the coast this weekend. A stronger cold front approaches from the west Monday and Tuesday. Again, due to differences in the models aloft, differences are noted on progression of the front, and any associated waves of low pressure that may ride along it. Higher confidence in an increase in clouds Monday and Tuesday, along with increasing rain chances, mainly beginning Monday night into Tuesday. In the Thursday through Sunday time frame, expect abundant sunshine along with daytime highs averaging around 5-10 degrees above normal. In fact, these above normal temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday as well in spite of the increase in clouds. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds to the south of Long Island into tonight. VFR through the TAF period. WSW-W winds at around 6-12 KT at KJFK/KLGA/KBDR and light and variable elsewhere, become W-WNW at around 10 kt throughout by mid morning. Winds then slowly back to the SW in the afternoon. Seabreezes are possible at KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KBDR/KGON mid-late afternoon. There is a chance for isolated gusts to around 15kt at city terminals late this afternoon. Winds become light and variable during the late afternoon/evening, except at KJFK and KLGA where SW at less than 8 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Late Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR. SW-W winds G15-25kt possible Thursday and Thursday evening. .Friday-Friday night...VFR. NW-N winds G15-25kt possible Friday afternoon and evening. .Saturday-Saturday night...VFR. .Sunday...VFR. SW winds G15-20kt possible.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure settles just south of the coastal waters into Wednesday with sub SCA conditions. This is expected to continue through the remainder of the week. Gusts may gust close to 20 kt late Thursday/Thursday night ahead of a weak cold front. As high pressure builds Friday through Saturday before passing east Sunday, expect sub SCA conditions through the period. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JE NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JE/JM HYDROLOGY...JE

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