Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231952 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 352 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build and remain in control through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Sunshine filtered through high clouds late this afternoon will give way to a mostly clear night with diminishing winds as high pressure builds in. Low temps are slightly cooler than a MOS guidance blend, ranging from the lower 50s in the coolest inland valley locations, to lowers 60a along most of the immediate coastline, to the mid 60s invof NYC. A high rip current risk continues for the Suffolk beaches based on earlier observations, and an incoming 3-4 ft swell opposing the outgoing tide which is just bottoming out. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Daytime heating under mostly sunny skies on Thu should result in development of a weak lee thermal trough, while a lobe of the building high still manages to build just to the south over the cooler ocean waters, allowing for afternoon coastal sea breezes to develop. Meanwhile, sunshine deep mixing to about 800 mb, and weak downslope flow should allow for temps to rise to the upper 70s and lower 80s. An approaching upper trough Thu night with accompanying mid level vort max and band of mid level moisture should produce mostly cloudy skies and possibly some sprinkles. Specific timing of these clouds and any sprinkles is still a little uncertain, and if the slower 12Z NAM is correct, would take place overnight than a couple hours either side of midnight. Low temps are slightly warmer than MOS guidance due to the cloud cover, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes Region on Friday. At the same time, an upper level trough axis will be right over us in the morning. The flow aloft becomes less cyclonic through the day as the trough shifts east, and with limited moisture, not expecting any showers to develop. Highs mostly 75-80 across the area with 850mb temperatures around 9C. Saturday will be mostly sunny with surface high pressure building in and more of a zonal flow aloft. High temperatures likely at or slightly below those of Friday with slightly cooler 850mb temps progged. The surface high will be centered more to our north by Sunday, and similar to Friday we start the day with an upper trough axis over us which shifts east through the day. Moisture is still limited, so another dry and mostly sunny day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will then be centered over New England on Monday and Tuesday. This will continue the stretch of dry weather with mostly sunny conditions and high in the mid and upper 70s. There`s a large spread among the global models regarding the potential development and movement of a coastal low pressure system during Wednesday. With high pressure likely to be centered somewhere off the New England coast and a lack of a surface trough or cold front for any sort of moisture entrainment, will go with the idea that rain trying to move in here from the south remains suppressed. Not a high confidence forecast this far out in time. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR as high pressure builds in. NW winds should turn more northerly tonight with speeds under 10 kt. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change could be off +/-1 hr. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change could be off +/-1 hr. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday-Saturday...VFR. NNW winds under 10 kt. .Sunday...VFR. NE winds under 10 kt. .Monday...VFR. E winds 10-15 kt. && .MARINE... High pressure will maintain quiet conditions through Sunday. The pressure gradient may tighten and increase winds a little on Monday due to a potential storm well the south, which may also bring in an easterly swell. Ocean seas are still expected to remain below advisory levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry through at least early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080- 081. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...CB MARINE...JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman

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