Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 051932 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 332 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD BACK IN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AXIS OF A 1022 HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDED INTO CNTRL PA THIS AFTN. THIS HI WILL BRING LGT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TNGT...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE. SUBSIDENCE AND SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR THE CU TO DISSIPATE. STLT INDICATES THAT THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS IS ALSO DISSIPATING...SO THE FCST FOR TNGT IS MAINLY CLR. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT THRU MON AT THE ATLC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE SPRAWLING HI SETS UP OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RESPOND BY RISING TO NEAR 70 BY TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY...SUBSIDENCE AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. LEFT THE FCST DRY AS A RESULT. INCREASING THETAE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM MON NGT HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. LIFT SUPPLIED BY A RELATIVELY WEAK 25-30KT LLJET. FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE RISING HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY FOR NOW. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INVOF THE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MAV/NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS WERE SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS USED...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT AS NAM AND CMC IMPLY CHC COVERAGE AT BEST...BUT WILL AT LEAST GO WITH SCT WORDING. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD NAM AND CMC COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WETTER GFS AND ECMWF. ENOUGH CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRAVELS WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT`S TRENDING TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CHANCE THAT THE STALLED BOUNDARY ENDS UP FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUT RIGHT NOW THURSDAY WOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A DRY DAY. WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR NOW. THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER FORECAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY. VFR TODAY WITH SCT 035-045 CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS WITH MVFR LIKELY AND IFR/LIFR VSBY POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR STRATO-CU ACROSS SE PA/S NJ TO DRIFT NE INTO METRO NJ TERMINALS IN SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS AT KHPN/KISP. SE SEABREEZE IS STRUGGLING TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST. THINKING THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 21-22Z TO COME IN. S SEABREEZE SHOULD WORK INTO KLGA AROUND 20Z WITH A STRONGER PUSH FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING. S/SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MON AFT/NIGHT...VFR WITH S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG STRATUS MON NIGHT. .TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS. .TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG. .WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW WINDS. .THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE. .FRI...MAINLY VFR. A CHC OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... HI PRES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON NGT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN WITH THE FRONT SETTLING NEARBY THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE GREATER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...NV MARINE...JMC/JC HYDROLOGY...JC

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