Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 300233 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1033 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front pushes south of the area this evening as high pressure builds to the north. The high moves east Sunday into Sunday night as the front returns north as a warm front. A cold front will slowly approach from the west on Monday, and pass by Tuesday morning. High pressure builds in briefly for the middle of the week, then low pressure brings rain for the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper level ridging builds into the region as a weak surface cold front pushes south of the area. Gusts diminish after midnight. Lows remain above seasonable tonight...upper 40s interior to lower 50s coast...mid 50s nyc/nj metro.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak cold advection will continue through the day Sunday as the ridge shifts to the east. Winds will back to the east and southeast keeping the area cool. Low level moisture increases and a low level inversion develops and strengthens through the day. Low level clouds are expected to develop late Sunday. High temperatures Sunday will be close to the lows that occur Sunday morning, maybe rising a couple of degrees early, then holding nearly steady. Did not use a diurnal trace for temperatures for Sunday. Stratus and fog develop Sunday night as the east flow remains. Initially weak cold advection continues then becomes weak warm advection after 06Z as the frontal boundary to the south begins to return as a warm front. Forcing will remain weak until toward 12Z Monday. So removed probabilities of precipitation, and mentioned drizzle. There is a chance that showers do develop ahead of the warm front, however, that would be more into Monday, and across the far southern sections of the CWA. If the front move quicker, which is unlikely as the surface and upper lows remain well to the west. Sunday night lows may occur during the evening, then hold steady or slowly rise toward morning. Again did not use the usual diurnal trace for hourly temperatures Sunday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The models were in good agreement through the extended, so the Superblend was generally used. After some residual fog and drizzle Monday morning, a warm front is progged to lift just north of the forecast area before stalling. It is possible that the front does not get as far north as the models depict, but for now the model consensus has been followed. This should allow the drizzle to cut off across the southwestern portion of the area, with some lingering light stuff still possible in the vicinity of the front. Chances for showers will increase through the day as the cold front and upper support draw closer, but the main window for rain looks to be Monday night closer to the frontal passage. Isolated thunderstorms have been included for this period with the enhanced lift with the system acting on some elevated instability. Lapse rates increase on Tuesday as cooler temperatures aloft move in. The best chance for a stray shower will be on the northern fringe of the forecast area per the model consensus at this time. A dry day is progged for Wednesday with high pressure building in from the west. Chances for overrunning light rain then increase Wednesday night ahead of developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley. The low then tracks through the area Thursday night and Friday, bringing moderate rain to the Tri-State Region. The temperature forecast for Monday is complicated, as the combination of southerly flow, the exact location of the warm front, and the influence of onshore flow will all play a part. It is possible a 20 degree difference will set up from southwest to northeast. Temperatures will be uniformly mild on Tuesday due to good mixing on southwesterly flow behind the cold front. Readings will then cool on Wednesday with the colder airmass in place. Cooler and damp thereafter with the rain and clouds, although nighttime temperatures will likely be above normal due to these same elements. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front pushes south tonight...with high pressure building to the north and east through Sun Night. Gusty W/NW winds at city terminals diminish after midnight... subsiding and veering NE overnight and then to the E/SE Sun morning. Gusts to 20 kt possible Sun aft. VFR through Sun aft. 4-5 kft cigs developing Sun morning...with mvfr cigs possible for NYC/NJ metro terminals late in the day. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday Night-Monday...Widespread IFR condition likely develop in fog/drizzle likely late Sunday Night into Monday morning. Possible improvement to VFR Monday afternoon. .Monday night...IFR or lower conditions, LLWS and scattered thunderstorms are possible. .Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR. SW-WSW winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday. W-NW winds G20-25KT possible Wednesday. .Thursday...MVFR or possible in late day rain.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Nearshore gusts to 20 kt expected to diminish after 06z...with winds and seas remaining below small craft advisory levels through Sunday night. There may be a brief period of marginal SCA winds and seas on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet Sunday evening. Southerly winds will increase on Monday, with the ocean reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria. The protected waters will be close to criteria by Monday night, but all areas will reach 25 kt on Tuesday behind a cold front. Seas will then linger above 5 ft on the ocean through Wednesday. Winds and seas are progged to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels on Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...12/MET NEAR TERM...12/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...NV MARINE...12/MET HYDROLOGY...MET

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.