Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 060042 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 842 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE USHERED OUT TO SEA BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL AS THE PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK. EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS ALSO DRY OUT IN BETWEEN ONE DEPARTING LOW AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW...THEN LIKELY POP FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT FOR NYC METRO/NE NJ AND NEARBY AREAS...AND CHANCE FARTHER NORTH/EAST... AS MID LEVEL FORCING WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...AND AS A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPING OFF HATTERAS THIS EVENING PIVOTS BACK IN CLOSER TO THE DELMARVA COAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING. LOWS IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... RAIN CONTINUES ON FRI AS UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING HEAD RIGHT UP INTO THE AREA...AND AS SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST. ENE FLOW NORTH OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH H5 COLD POOL ALSO MOVING ACROSS...AND SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO...STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY FRI INTO FRI EVENING. THE SFC LOW SHOULD RETROGRADE INTO NJ/PA FRI NIGHT...WITH PRECIP BECOMING LIGHT/SPOTTY ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON FRI SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...STILL 10-15 DEG BELOW AVG. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL PATTERN IS FOR A WEAKENING UPR LOW TO LINGER ON SAT...THEN EXIT ON SUN DUE TO COLD FROPA. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES WEDGES IN FOR MON...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE CWA TUE AND WED...PERHAPS SINKING SWD ON THU AS A CDFNT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT RIGHT OFF THE BAT SAT WRT THE H5 LOW. THE NAM IS 100-200 MILES FURTHER N THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PREFERRED THIS FAR OUT...SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE NAM GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INPUTS NEAR THE UPR LVL FEATURE. AS A RESULT...KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST AND WENT BLW THE WARMER GFS BASED STATISTICAL TEMPS. THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SAT NGT WITH MOISTURE DWINDLING. ONLY SLGT CHC POPS AS A RESULT FOR MOST OF THE NGT. THE CDFNT THEN APPROACHES SUN MRNG...AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN PARTICULARLY NRN ZONES. BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA. CURRENT TIMING STILL HAS THE PCPN ENDING BY 18Z...SO A DRY LATE AFTN IS EXPECTED ATTM. DRY WX ON MON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES VIA SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPS WARMER THAN SUN WITH DEEPER MIXING. MODEL UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN AGAIN TUE-THU. WENT WITH THE GENERAL IDEA OF WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY IN THE REGION...RESULTING IN AT LEAST BKN-OVC SKIES. POPS CLOSE TO THE PREV OFFICIAL AROUND 30 PERCENT TUE AND WED. THERE IS THE SUGGESTION THAT THE HIGH MAY REMAIN FIRM AND KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY...AT LEAST THRU WED. HOWEVER...PREV RUNS AND THE SPECTRUM OF DATA ALSO HINTS AT PERIODS OF RAIN FOR TUE-THU. TEMPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND THRU THE LONG TERM...EXCEPT A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED SAT TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMER READINGS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS IN AND AROUND THE NYC TERMINALS. CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN A STEADY RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE CATEGORY CHANGES. VFR VSBYS FALL TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THE EAST BY FRI AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES FRI MORNING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES FRI MORNING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES FRI MORNING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES FRI MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES FRI MORNING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES FRI MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. .SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .MON...VFR. .TUE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SUB VFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN...MAINLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ERN LI SOUND. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ON THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. REST OF WATERS ARE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON FRI...ENE WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH AT LEAST SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35-40 KT...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER 12Z GFS SOLN PREVAILS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING/DURATION/STRENGTH OF PEAK WINDS ON THE OCEAN...ISSUED A GALE WATCH INSTEAD OF A GALE WARNING. SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...DECREASING SAT NGT BUT MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT INTO MON. IMPROVEMENT MON AND TUE WITH HIGH PRES INFLUENCING THE WATERS. WRT WINDS...SPEEDS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS SAT-TUE. EXCEPTION MAY BE SUN AFTN...WHERE WNW FLOW COULD APPROACH CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE. && .HYDROLOGY... LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BASIN AVG RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...AND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH FARTHER EAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT MOST ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY WX ON MON. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1/4-1/2 FT HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT...WHILE TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE 1 TO 1 1/2 FT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND/NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY HARBOR...WHERE AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF SRN NASSAU AND SW SUFFOLK TO TOUCH MODERATE FLOOD THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY TOUCHED ACROSS THE REMAINING EASTERN COASTAL AREAS. FOR FRI NIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK. SURGE LIKELY REMAINS AT LEAST STEADY...AND COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER IF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS PER 12Z GFS MATERIALIZE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWER NEW YORK BAY/RARITAN BAY/JAMAICA BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU...WITH ONLY 1 TO 1 1/4 FT SURGE NEEDED..AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED MOST ELSEWHERE. FOR SAT...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ009- 010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ071- 078-177. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ074-075-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074- 075-080-178-179. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006- 106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330. GALE WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG

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