Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271931 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 331 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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LAPS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FROM ORANGE COUNTY EWD INTO NRN PUTNAM COUNTY. BASED ON IR...IT APPEARS THE CDFNT IS FROM NRN VT...TO CNTRL NY STATE...INTO SWRN PA. IN THIS PREFRONTAL UNSTABLE ZONE...A FEW ISOLD TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE CU FIELD EVIDENT ON STLT OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS THE AREA IS WAITING FOR A BIT MORE UPR SUPPORT. THIS UPR SUPPORT GETS CLOSE THIS EVE WITH THE PASSING H3 JET COUPLET. AS A RESULT SCT TSTMS ARE FCST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALONG THE COASTS...ENOUGH POOLING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SFC FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SCHC INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA TNGT. WRT TSTM INTENSITY...PULSE MODE IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY 30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. IN ORDER FOR TSTMS TO UTILIZE MAX DCAPE...THEY WILL NEED TO REACH THE EL ABV 40K FT. NAM BUFR DOES INDICATE A DRY LAYER AROUND H6-H5 WHICH COULD HELP HAIL GROWTH. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLD SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS OUT FROM W TO E LATE TNGT WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC NORTH AND WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH... DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 03Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON... .THU-SAT...VFR. .SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. && .MARINE...
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SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM. QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AN ISOLD URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD TREAT EXISTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVE/TNGT...HOWEVER STORM MOTION OF 10-15 MPH WILL HELP TO LIMIT EVEN THIS LOW THREAT. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MET MARINE...JMC/FIG HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC

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