Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 301340 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 940 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast today. A cold front approaches late in the day Wednesday and moves through Thursday. High pressure builds in through Saturday and moves off the northeast coast Sunday through the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made only minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures for current conditions, as temperatures across Long Island were lower than forecast. With heating of the day commencing temperatures will begin to rise more quickly and current trends and highs look to be on track. Surface high pressure over the area will push offshore today with conditions rather zonal aloft. Therefore, dry conditions will persist with just some high cloudiness and fair weather cumulus throughout the day. Thicknesses lower today as compared to yesterday, so temperatures will not be nearly as warm as they have been, 5-10 degrees cooler in most spots. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s for a majority of the region. Some upper 70s are likely across the Twin Forks of Long Island and southeastern Connecticut as local sea breezes develop during the late morning into the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure continues to push farther east Tuesday night while an area of low pressure moves toward New England from south central Canada. Its associated cold front will approach the area late in the day Wednesday, with just a slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms for mainly New York City and points north and west. High clouds will lower and thicken somewhat Tuesday night out ahead of the approaching cold front. This will mean lows a few degrees warmer than Monday night. A southeast to south flow develops late in the day Tuesday and Tuesday night, with winds veering to the southwest by late Tuesday night. This will reintroduce a more humid and warmer air mass. Dew points will rise into the upper 60s along the coast Tuesday night, while Wednesday high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than on Tuesday, in the middle to upper 80s. A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday, and possibly longer, at the ocean beaches via 3-4 ft very long period SE swell (13 seconds) generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. See the National Hurricane Center for forecasts of Gaston. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A shortwave moving through central Canada and into the Great Lakes will carve out a deepening trough for Wednesday night into Thursday. The trough will then move to the northeast and weaken as a strong ridge builds from the central United States. The mid and low level flow will be weak and an associated cold front will be slow to move through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. Will carry chance probabilities for showers with the frontal passage. CAPE and instability are marginal Wednesday night and decrease Thursday. Will mention isolated thunder Wednesday night and showers Thursday. A cool and dry Canadian high builds into the area behind the front and moves off the northeast coast Sunday and remains into the beginning of next week. The airmass modifies into the weekend and a return flow develops Sunday into Monday with temperatures and dew points increasing. A high risk for strong rip currents likely continues into Friday due to persistent SE swells from Gaston. See the National Hurricane Center for forecasts of Gaston. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure will remain over the area today. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light NE to E winds will develop a sea breeze component through the rest of the morning, with the sea breeze expanding this afternoon. Winds tonight diminish and become light and variable at most terminals. Afternoon seabreezes are expected once again on Wednesday. There is a chance of low stratus or fog tonight. At this time, confidence is low, and will leave out of the TAF for now. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Seabreeze may develop before 18Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18-20z. KEWR TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18-20z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18-20z. KHPN TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18-20z. KISP TAF Comments: Seabreeze may develop before 18Z. .Outlook for 12Z Wednesday through Saturday... .Wednesday...VFR. Low chance of sub-vfr stratus or fog early Wednesday morning. .Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with MVFR conditions. .Thursday Afternoon-Saturday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Although guidance does continue to over predict wave heights for the short term, 5 ft seas are occurring at buoy 44025. Seas at the buoy have been oscillating around 5 feet as long period swell moves into the waters. So, will continue with the SCA for the eastern ocean zone for rough seas as these long period swells from Gaston impact these coastal waters, more so than the central and eastern zones. These conditions should continue over the eastern ocean zone through about 8 pm. There after, seas will diminish to around 4 ft. Elsewhere, seas should remain around 4 ft through Wednesday, though seas could touch 5 ft sporadically at times even in the central and eastern zones. Winds should remain below 25 kt through Wednesday. A cold front crosses the waters during Thursday. Thereafter high pressure builds into the waters. Wednesday night into Saturday winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft level. Southeast swells continue into Friday from Gaston. With another system possibly moving through the Atlantic and a persistent northeast flow, small craft seas will become likely Saturday night and remain into Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate to severe drought conditions continue. Around a quarter of an inch of rainfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry weather expected Thursday night into the beginning of next week. Moderate to severe drought conditions continue. The next local drought statement updated is scheduled for September 1st. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MET NEAR TERM...JP/MET SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC/JMC MARINE...JP/MET HYDROLOGY...JP/MET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.