Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291448 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TONIGHT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY. AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG ON MON.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN EITHER DIRECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN EITHER DIRECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SEAS DOWN TO 4.6 FT AT 44017 AND WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH EXPIRES AT 11 AM. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MALOIT/JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN

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