Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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231 FXUS61 KOKX 282017 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 417 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain to the south this evening. Low pressure will then move along the front and pass just to the south this evening. High pressure will then build in late tonight into Thursday, then move east Thursday night. Low pressure approaching from the Central states will impact the region Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure will build in on Sunday and Monday. Another disturbance may affect the area next Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Radar shows most of the rain attm is to the north/east of NYC. However, as low pressure over the Mid Atlantic region starts to take shape south of Long Island, expect rain to fill back in over the region with passage of the associated upper trough and developing H7-8 layer frontogenesis NW of the sfc low. Air mass has stabilized aloft so do not expect any thunder. Fog should be limited to the higher elevations. Used a guidance blend for lows tonight, with lower 40s invof NYC, upper 30s most elsewhere, and isolated mid 30s well inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather with a northwesterly breeze. Despite a cooler deep layer air mass in place, sfc temperatures will actually be warmer than Tuesday because of deep mixing. Mostly sunny skies are progged, with some fair weather Cu especially NW of NYC. Took the high side of guidance for temps, with mid/upper 50s most places, and upper 40s/lower 50s in the higher elevations. Guidance may be underdone by quite a bit on winds for Wed evening as low pressure off to the east intensifies. Model soundings out east show winds 35-40 kt atop the mixed layer. Trended forecast higher, with gusts up to 25 lasting until about midnight. Lows should be in the mid 30s invof NYC, lower 30s along the coastlines and in the NYC suburbs, and 25-30 elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds in for Thursday, then moves offshore Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to mid 50s. Clouds will increase Thursday night as warm advection begins to move in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Expect periods of rain starting Thursday night into Saturday. Some lingering cold air across the northern portions of our CWA Thursday night may result in a mix of snow and rain before warm advection increases. So have kept the mix of snow and rain inland. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the mid 40s to around 50. Canadian high pressure builds in for late Saturday night into Monday. Another disturbance may approach for Tuesday. Temperatures during this period will be in the mid to upper 50s which is near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A couple of fronts remains near the region through this evening. A cold front pushes across the region overnight. High pressure then builds into the region on Wednesday. IFR or less continues through at least 06z in low stratus, fog and periods of rain. Winds will generally be less than 10kt from the east-northeast. After 06Z, a cold front will push across the region, with winds becoming northerly, then northwesterly and increasing to 10-15kt by 12Z Wednesday. At this time, conditions will gradually improve to VFR with mostly clear skies for Wednesday. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be off by an hour or two. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be off by an hour or two. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be off by an hour or two. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be off by an hour or two. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be off by an hour or two. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday...VFR. N-NW gusts 15-20KT. .Thursday...VFR. .Friday...A wintry mix possible early north and west with IFR conditions possible before a change to rain, otherwise sub VFR conditions with rain elsewhere. .Friday night and Saturday...Chance of rain with MVFR or lower conditions. E winds G20-25KT at coastal terminals for Saturday. .Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below advy levels through tonight, but could briefly come close on the ocean tonight as NE winds increase on the back side of departing low pressure. Advy level winds are also possible on the ocean on Wed in the morning. Given the marginal nature of these winds, have not yet issued SCA. Gusts 25-30 kt are likely on all waters Wed night as low pressure to the east intensifies and high pressure builds from the west. Some 5-ft seas could linger into early Thu morning. Potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions increases from late day Friday through Saturday night with increasing southeasterly winds ahead of an approaching system. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional basin average rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch possible into the first half of tonight as low pressure develops south of Long Island and rain fills back in. Event total rainfall for most of the area will be between 1/2 to 3/4 inch, with higher totals above 1 inch on parts of Long Island where tstms passed across earlier today. No additional hydrologic concerns anticipated through tonight. Additional rainfall of 1/2 inch to 1 inch is possible Thursday night through Saturday. No hydrologic concerns anticipated. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides remain high due to a recent new moon. Water levels may approach minor flood thresholds during the high tide cycles tonight, with minor flooding possible Friday night as a low pressure system approaches. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...BC MARINE...Fig/Goodman HYDROLOGY...Fig/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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