Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251138 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 738 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE DAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. A LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH SHOULD BACK WINDS TO WLY FOR A FEW HOURS AT KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES THROUGH. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SAT...VFR. .SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .TUE...VFR. && .MARINE... RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW. THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW NEAR TERM...PICCA/PW SHORT TERM...PICCA LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...24 MARINE...PICCA/PW HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW

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