Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 182050 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 350 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will continue to lift north of the region tonight with high pressure building into the region through Tuesday. A cold front will then move through the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday, followed by high pressure building in through Thursday. A warm front approaches for Friday and Friday night. A cold front approaches for Saturday into Saturday night. Weak high pressure moves in on Sunday. A low pressure system may impact the region Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A surface front north of the region will continue to push north tonight. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower 30s inland and mid to upper 30s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure builds into the region Tuesday with a surface cold front approaching slowly from the west. Temperatures on Tuesday will be above normal for this time of year with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s. The cold front is expected to move across the region dry with no more than scattered to broken cloud cover. Winds will increase behind the front from the norht to northwest Tuesday night with temperatures in the lower 30s inland and mid to upper 30s along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Semi zonal flow continues early in the period resulting in near normal temperatures Wednesday into Thursday. However, ridging builds in across the Eastern CONUS in response to developing low pressure in the Central US. This will lead to above average temperatures across the region late this week. Good model agreement among the global models with the handling of low pressure pulling up into the Great Lakes and Eastern Canada late this week. The disagreement in the modeling for our area begins to show up Saturday into Sunday with timing of polar boundary and how quickly it can transverse the area late Saturday into Sunday. European and Canadian modeling have more SE US ridging late this week, with GFS less, therefore the GFS moves the polar boundary through the region noticeably faster over the weekend. Based on teleconnections and model biases leaning more towards the European and Canadian with the handling of the polar boundary with respect to timing and positioning into the weekend. Heading towards Christmas Eve night and Christmas Day the overall pattern suggests that the polar boundary remains nearby. This would suggest a return to temperatures closer to normal. With upper level energy approaching from the west low pressure development along the boundary is likely. A mainly liquid precip type solution for much of the region appears more likely with the lack of cold air ahead of the boundary, with western areas more uncertain with respect to rain versus any wintry precipitation. After the Christmas holiday, a step down in temperatures in likely as the the Western US ridge and Eastern US trough pattern attempts to re-establish itself.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A weak area of low pressure passes slowly to the south and east of Long Island through this evening. VFR conditions with the exception of KGON, which is likely to improve by 00Z. Light and variable winds will gradually back around to the W/SW at less than 10 Kt. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tues...VFR. SW-W winds G25-30KT. .Weds...VFR. NW winds G25KT. .Thur...VFR. .Friday into Saturday...Chc S-SW winds G25kt. Chc LLWS and MVFR in shra.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure builds across the area waters allowing winds and seas to remain below small craft advisory levels tonight and through Tuesday. Gusts increase Tuesday to small craft levels, especially on the ocean waters then approach gale force late Tuesday afternoon. Gale Warnings may continue through the early afternoon on Wednesday for the ocean waters immediately behind a cold frontal passage. Otherwise Small Craft Advisory level conditions should linger through the day on Wednesday, especially for eastern waters on NW flow. High pressure builds in Wednesday night through early Friday with waves and winds relatively quiet. Late Friday into Saturday SW flow increases ahead of the next frontal system with SCA conditions likely returning over the eastern waters with climbing seas. Due to increasing S-SW fetch seas climb during Friday night into Saturday with gale conditions increasingly possible for eastern zones.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts expected. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$

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