Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281741 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1240 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH JUST A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS RACING EAST...AND SHOULD CLEAR ERN SECTIONS BY 12 NOON. RADARS TO THE WEST STILL SHOW SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT RETURNS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT A PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH THE H8 FRONT ALOFT MAY GENERATE A FEW SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK IN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR ENSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PERIOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WITH LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES DROPS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH WILL REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH MON EVE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TUE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUE. ONE OTHER NOTE ABOUT TUE...EARLIER NAM/SREF ARE THE ONLY SOLNS INDICATING ANY PCPN ON TUE. THE H5 SHORTWAVE IN THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANY OTHER SOLNS AND IS WHAT IS CAUSING SUCH A DIFFERENCE. SINCE MANY OF THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NAM HAVE DISCOUNTED THESE SOLNS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES EAST SLOWLY MIDWEEK INTO LATE WEEK. THIS PUSHES HEIGHTS UP TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS GIVES MORE OF A RIDGING PATTERN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELIEVE THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...TAKING A MUCH SLOWER TRACK FOR THIS. THE COLD AIR MASS SLATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DOES NOT LAST THAT LONG. WED AND THU...WHEN THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...HIGHS HOVER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON AVERAGE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY LATE WEEK. WEATHER IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH SINCE THIS IS DAY 8 OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...THESE POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT WITH MODEL RUN FLUCTUATIONS BEING MORE LIKELY AT THIS VERY LATE FORECAST TIME FRAME WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SW WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KT. MVFR AT KSWF UNTIL AROUND 21Z...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR 030 CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AT REMAINING TERMINALS. BRIEF -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. W FLOW VEERING NW TONIGHT. FLOW REMAINS NW MONDAY MORNING 8 TO 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI... .MON-FRI...VFR. && .MARINE... SW FLOW WILL VEER WSW AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COMBO OF WIND WAVES AND SWELLS COMBINING FOR 5-FT SEAS E OF MORICHES INLET INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS TUE/TUE NIGHT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS MAY COME WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NW. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350. && $$

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