-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 251824
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday before
moving offshore Wednesday night. A warm front will lift toward
the area late Thursday, followed by low pressure and a cold
front on Friday. High pressure will build across this weekend
before another low passes to the south early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Minor adjustments were made with this update. Upper trough
passing through area may produce a few sprinkles over the next
couple of hours, otherwise dry for the remainder of this
afternoon. There will be a few breaks in the overcast as well,
but it will remain mostly cloudy with a NE flow and a strong
subsidence inversion around 750 mb.

Otherwise, expect cool conditions with high temperatures in the
upper 60s/lower 70s.

There remains a high risk of rip currents at ocean beaches
through this evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will provide another unseasonably cool night with
clearing skies. Low temperatures overnight will be in the
mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. The high
will remain in control on Wednesday before pushing offshore
Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the
mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level shortwave that is expected to dive out of central
Canada, the Great Lakes region, then across the area Friday into
Saturday, will need to be watched as global models differ on
strength of this feature. Across eastern Canada, cutoff low develops
this weekend, with lingering trough extending across the northeast
states. As the weekend progresses, this low moves northeast.

At the surface, high pressure to the east gives way to a weak warm
front late Thursday. Sfc low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley
Thursday, then toward the mid Atlantic coast early Friday. Due to
differences aloft in the models, placement of sfc low, and strength
of the low differs somewhat. At this time, it appears that consensus
would place the low just to our south, along a cold frontal boundary
Friday. This low moves east by Saturday, as high pressure builds
from the west/northwest. This high should remain in control Saturday
through Monday.

As for sensible weather, shower chances increase late Thursday, with
the best chance for showers, possible thunderstorms Thursday night
into Friday. Still uncertainty with this system, but there is the
potential for significant rainfall. Thereafter, dry conditions
prevail.

Do not foresee large temperatures differences/swings, with near
normal readings anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the terminals through much of the TAF
period, shifting offshore Wednesday night.

MVFR cigs lift into VFR range this evening. VFR cigs near 3.5-4
kft linger during much of tonight. VFR continues into Wednesday
while clouds become more scattered in coverage.

Winds ENE to NE 10 kt or less for most terminals, becoming more
SE Wednesday afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 1-3 hours beyond
forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 1-3 hours beyond
forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 1-3 hours beyond
forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 2-4 hours beyond
forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 2-4 hours beyond
forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 1-3 hours beyond
forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday afternoon-Wednesday night...VFR. SE winds near 5-10
kt.
.Thursday...MVFR possible, with chance of showers and possibly
a tstm.
.Thursday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible, with a
chance of showers and possibly a tstm.
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions expected across ocean waters through
this evening, primarily for seas. High pressure builds across
the area waters on Wednesday.

High pressure departs Wednesday night, giving way to a warm
front Thursday, then low pressure and associated cold front
Thursday night through Friday.

The low and cold front pass east Friday night as high pressure
builds.

Through the late week period, sub SCA conditions are generally
expected. The only exception could be late Thursday night into
Friday. Much depends on eventual strength of the low as it moves
across the waters.

Seas should remain 5 ft or less Wednesday night through Saturday,
but the late Thursday night through Friday time frame needs to be
monitored as the storm impacts the local waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Wednesday. Additional
rainfall is possible Thursday night through Friday, with a
corresponding low chance for urban and poor drainage flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical high tides continue to run high, especially during
the high tide cycle at night. Along the south shore bays of
Nassau and Queens, less than a foot departure is needed to reach
minor flooding thresholds. Departures there should run 1 to 1 1/2
feet above normal. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect
for these areas for tonight`s high tide cycle, with a coastal
flood statement for locations adjacent to Lower New York Harbor
for localized minor coastal flooding.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fig/PW
NEAR TERM...Fig/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...Fig
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Fig/PW
HYDROLOGY...Fig/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW/DW