Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 292055 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 455 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...TPHL RADAR SHOWS REAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO PHILLY METRO ATTM...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NYC METRO THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT... TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5 LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN. SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ. HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM. MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A RESULT. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. SEABREEZE PUSHING INTO JFK AS OF 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH KLGA BTWN BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8-12 KT. SEABREEZE DIMINISHES BY AROUND 00-01Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190 MAGNETIC. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8-10 KT COULD PUSH THROUGH BTWN 22-23Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 22-23Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...JC MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE

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