-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 170747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
SO FAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA...THAT CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPERATURES
JUST TOUCHING 32...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA
BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS A RESULT WILL
LEAVE FREEZE WARNING UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING.

WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...AT A MINIMUM.

ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 900-875
HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

NOT WANTING TO HAVE UP MULTIPLE FROST FREEZE HEADLINES...WILL
HOLD OFF IN HOISTING A FREEZE WATCH FOR ROCKLAND/N WESTCHESTER AND
W PORTIONS OF UNION/ESSEX/BERGEN COUNTIES...AND A FROST ADVISORY
FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...S WESTCHESTER AND THE E PORTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES IN NE NJ FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET
DAY-SHIFT ISSUE WHEN THEY TAKE DOWN THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 00Z
FRI...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

N/NNE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 KT THROUGH AROUND 12Z. WINDS VEER TO
THE EAST AFT 12Z...AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 080-100 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 080-100 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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WITH EXPECTATION OF GUSTS ON ALL WATERS TO AROUND 25 KT...HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA TO COVER ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT
SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 32
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-073-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...