-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
810
FXUS61 KOKX 021804
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly advances into the area today, and washes
out tonight. Another cold front passes Thursday afternoon into
early Thursday evening. High pressure builds in behind the front
Thursday night. High pressure remains on Independence Day into
the beginning of the weekend. The high moves offshore late
Sunday followed by a pre- frontal trough and weak low pressure
southwest of the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak shortwave trough slowly slides east through the area
today. At the surface, a weak trough gradually pushes SE of the
region through the afternoon, sliding shower activity across
southern and eastern areas east through the late morning/early
afternoon. Before then, a few heavier showers or even a rumble
of thunder is possible across SE LI before this activity slides
SE.

Across northern and western areas gradual drying conditions
this morning, although mid- high clouds will be slow to clear
from NW to SE this afternoon. Deep SW flow may still linger mid-high
clouds over far eastern areas into tonight. Mostly clear skies
are expected for the rest of the area tonight.

Highs near seasonable in the lower to mid 80s with lows tonight
in the low 70s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
On Thursday, a long wave upper-level trough over Ontario and
Quebec amplifies as it rotates east into Quebec with surface
low pressure developing over eastern Quebec and the Canadian
Maritimes. This brings another cold front through the area
Thursday afternoon into early evening.

While much of the morning will be mostly sunny, partly to mostly
cloudy skies are expected in the afternoon as the cold front
brings with it a period of showers and thunderstorms. 00Z CAM`s
are wishy washy on the amount of CAPE. However, they are
consistent on only marginal mid-level lapse rates with good 0-6
km bulk shear. With marginal mid-level lapse rates (most 00Z
CAM`s range from 6.5- 7.1C/km) it may be difficult for some
thunderstorm development, but given enough CAPE, thunderstorm
chances look decent. With ample shear available (most 00Z CAM`s
have at least 30 kt, with some pushing 60 kt) any thunderstorms
that do occur could become strong to severe with an isolated
risk for damaging winds.

Given more heating, temps will be warmer on Thursday, reaching
the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows Thursday night will cool to near
70 to the mid 50s at the coast, while interior areas will cool
into the low 60s.

Our Independence Day forecast couldn`t look better. High
pressure settles Thursday night following a cold front and
remains in place through Independence Day. Sunny skies are
expected with highs in the low to mid 80s. Clear skies remain
into Friday night allowing for good viewing of firework
displays.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry and warm this weekend
* Becoming more humid to begin next week

Seasonably warm and dry to begin the weekend with a nice stretch of
weather. Towards late in the day Sunday and into Sunday night with
high pressure getting further offshore a more humid return flow gets
established. This will usher in higher dew points as it turns more
uncomfortable with high humidity levels for the early and middle
part of next week.

Global NWP guidance is in excellent agreement with a trough of low
pressure drawing closer later on Monday which will precede a cold
front well back to the west. The progression of the cold front may
slow leading to the trough lingering and potentially being a trigger
for diurnally driven convection in a very humid air mass. It remains
too soon to get into details, but scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop for the afternoon and evening hours for
Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday of next week. The relatively
higher chance of diurnally driven convection would be further NW
across the area.

No significant changes were made to the extended forecast with NBM
guidance utilized.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front over the area this afternoon will wash out tonight.
Another cold front will approach Thursday afternoon.

Possible MVFR cigs right at the start of the period at the NYC
metros, then potential for a stray shower or tstm until around
01Z as the front interacts with a developing sea breeze.

For tonight, most terminals should be VFR, but LIFR cigs are
likely overnight at KGON and may also impact KISP/KJFK.

Winds at most of the NYC metros will be light/variable to start,
then become light SW-S, while KJFK continues with a S flow
around 10 kt. Other coastal terminals will see SW sea breezes 10
kt or less. A light SSE sea breeze should make it in to
KEWR/KTEB after 22Z. Light SW winds tonight become W-NW
overnight, then resume at SW 5-10 kt after 14Z-15Z Thu.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A stray shower or tstm possible until around 00Z-01Z. Low cigs
may make it to KJFK late tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night: Showers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds and brief MVFR or lower cond
possible into early evening, otherwise VFR. SW winds G15-20kt
outside of tstms.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-18kt.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Friday
night under a weak pressure gradient.

Tstms may pose a hazard of gusty winds, lightning, heavy rain,
and locally rough seas Thu aft/eve.

A light pressure gradient continues over the waters to begin the
weekend with tranquil conditions. By Sunday a return wind flow
out of the south takes hold with ocean seas around 3 ft. Other
than somewhat marginal small craft seas on the eastern ocean
possible Sunday night, sub advisory conditions are expected to
prevail through the weekend and into the start of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A low pressure trough stalls nearby late Monday into Tuesday.
With a humid air mass in place and PW expected to be high
climatologically, isolated to scattered showers and storms
could produce localized heavy rainfall. Impacts remain unknown
at this time with details unknown this far out.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip currents continues today due to a southerly
swell of 4-5 ft 7s, combined with 1 ft easterly swell. This
will produce waves in the surf zone of 3-5 ft.

The residual S swell will subside to around 3 ft heading into
Thursday with the rip risk expected to lower to moderate.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...