Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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334 FXUS61 KOKX 272341 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 741 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Will keep in a chance of thunderstorms inland this evening as surface based instability remains with CAPE around J/Kg. Storms are weakening with loss of best heating of the day. Across long Island and into southern Connecticut, with a marine layer in place, there was little to none instability and CAPE. Watching convection weaken as storms moves through southern Connecticut.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An evening shower/thunderstorm is possible northwest of the city, then with the loss of instability and only weak lift, dry overnight. For Saturday, still no significant source of lift outside of weak mid level shortwaves, but SBCAPEs will be building once again away from sea breezes. Again, will go with only slight chance to chance pops, focused more toward the afternoon and away from areas cooled by sea breezes. Highs on Saturday should be warmer than on Friday with warmer temps at the top of the mixed layer, and probably less cloud cover overall. Again, needed to adjust a guidance blend upward to account for the low bias as of late, especially over Long Island. There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic ocean beaches on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models are in good agreement with the H5 pattern across North America to start...however timing and amplitude differences start to become apparent by the middle of the week and even more so by weeks end. Sub-tropical ridge over the western atlantic begins to break down and shift e during the latter part of the weekend but should still have enough of an influence on the area to keep any convection associated with an approaching back door cold front mainly to the north...although it may be close enough for some storms across the interior...so have maintained the low chc pops there. Moisture from a tropical disturbance off the Carolina coast is forecast to feed up the east coast along a pre-frontal trough Sunday night and Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. There is the potential for heavy rainfall with this system as a plume of tropical moisture surges northward ahead of the aforementioned system near the SE coast. These values are close to the maximum observed precipitable water for May 30 per SPC Sounding Climatology. An approaching shortwave in the northern branch and sfc cold front will shift this activity to the east Monday night. Deep layered ridging then returns through the rest of the week with the return to summer-like temperatures. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The area will remain on the western side of the Bermuda High into Saturday with a thermal trough across then interior each afternoon. Convection has largely dissipated across the area. Additional activity moving into NE PA is likely to dissipate before reaching the Lower Hudson Valley later this evening. The main feature of focus this evening is the low-level coastal jet impacting KJFK and KLGA with gusts up to 25 kt which developed over the last couple of hours. This feature typically weakens gradually in the evening while spreading east. KISP may see a brief period of gusts to around 20 kt. Winds veer to the SW at under 10kt this evening and then gradually strengthen to 10-15 kt Saturday. Potential for coastal low-level jet to redevelop and impact KJFK and KLGA Saturday afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 25 kt early this evening with coastal seabreeze jet. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 20-25 kt early this evening with coastal seabreeze jet. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of winds veering back to S/SW this evening may be delayed by 1-2 hours. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of winds veering back to S/SW this evening may be delayed by 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of early evening shower/thunderstorm. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to around 20 kt early this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... .Saturday afternoon-Sunday...Mainly VFR with afternoon seabreezes. There is a chance of MVFR or lower in any isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms; mainly to the n/w of NYC. .Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower probable with showers and thunderstorms. .Monday night-Tuesday...Becoming VFR Monday night. Seabreezes likely Tuesday afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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With the Ambrose jet in place, with gusts at KJFK near 30 kt, winds and seas were approaching small craft levels at buoy 44065. Conditions should be brief and subsiding as the evening progresses. Elsewhere across the forecast waters winds and seas remain below small craft levels. The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the waters through Saturday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels during this period. A weak pressure gradient across the waters will then keep winds and seas below sca levels through Tuesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mostly for the inland areas this evening, and Saturday afternoon. However, no significant widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. Rainfall amounts around one half to three quarters of an inch are possible on Monday with locally higher amounts. Localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible from the heaviest rain.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...DW MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...24/PW

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