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000
FXUS61 KOKX 200733
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
333 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical cyclone Jose slowly moves south and east of the area today
and will remain offshore through Thursday. High pressure builds over
the area Thursday and remains in place through early next week
as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast. Please
refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on
Jose.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Jose is located about 220 mi south and east of the Long Island coast
and will continue moving slowly to the northeast through the day.
Impacts will be minimal on land as the majority of showers will stay
offshore. A few bands could make their way into eastern Long Island
and southeast Connecticut, with dry conditions for the remaining
portion of the region. By late morning and early afternoon, all
showers should largely be located offshore. Gusty northerly winds
will continue today, with the strongest gusts across Long Island.
Could still see a few sustained winds to tropical storm force across
eastern Long Island, particularly across the forks.

The main concern today will be from high surf and dangerous rip
currents at ocean beaches. Minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue across eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut through the day. Further west, at
least partial clearing is anticipated, especially this afternoon.

Above normal temperatures are forecast despite the cloud cover with
highs reaching the middle and upper 70s for most locations and the
lower 80s in NE NJ and the NYC metro.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Jose will meander south and east of Cape Cod tonight into Thursday.
Winds will weaken during this time, but still remain gusty across
Long Island and southeast Connecticut. This is where the
tightest pressure gradient will be located between high
pressure to the north and west and Jose offshore. Otherwise,
skies will continue to gradually clear overnight and should
largely be Mostly sunny on Thursday.

Deep upper ridging builds to the north and west as Jose meanders
offshore. Drier low level air should work in on Thursday as well
with dew points falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Temperatures however will be quite warm, reaching the middle 80s in
NE NJ and NYC metro with upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.

Dangerous rip currents will likely continue at Atlantic ocean
beaches on Thursday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Lots of uncertainty in the long term continues. Most of this is due
to the uncertainty surrounding Jose`s ultimate track and strength.
Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose
from the National Hurricane Center.

For now it appears that Jose and/or remnants will meander about 250-
300 miles to the southeast of Montauk Thursday through this weekend.
This would likely keep the associated rain shield just off to the
east. This combined with high pressure over the area will then
likely keep us dry through the period with above-normal temperatures
as heights build aloft. It still may be on the breezy side,
particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday and Tuesday, will
continue to keep both periods dry for consistency while global
models attempt to sort out the details of Jose from run to run.

Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of
this week and may continue into early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Tropical cyclone Jose will remain off southern New England
coast today.

Bands of showers continue to pivot into the area from the east,
and should mainly be an occasional impact to KGON/KBDR/KISP.
Intensity is mainly light although there could be an isold
moderate to heavy showers with vsby briefly dropping to MVFR or
even IFR. Otherwise...ceilings are mainly MVFR this morning
improving to MVFR-VFR this afternoon.

A gusty N flow will gradually shift to the NNW. Gusts will
continue in the 20-30 kt range at the city terminals, with
gusts of 25-30 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually
decrease through the evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night...VFR.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city
terminals.
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Jose slowly moves offshore and will meander through Thursday while
weakening. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for official
track and intensity forecasts for Jose.

Changes to marine headlines with this forecast package include the
conversion of Tropical Storm Warning on the ocean waters west of
Fire Island Inlet to an SCA. This SCA goes through Thursday. The SCA
on the eastern Sound was also extended through tonight.

The strongest winds are expected to be east of Fire Island inlet
where tropical storm force winds remain possible through today.
Winds will gradually weaken late today through tonight, but should
remain above SCA levels across the eastern Sound, eastern LI Bays
and ocean waters east of Moriches inlet. These winds may remain
elevated east of Moriches inlet through Thursday.

Ocean seas will gradually subside today through tonight. They will
remain elevated into Thursday due to lingering swell from offshore
Jose. Waves may also be close to 5 ft across the far eastern Sound
today into tonight.

Uncertainty regarding winds and seas increases from Thursday night
through Sunday due mostly to the uncertainty of Jose`s eventual
track and strength during this period. What seems more probable is
that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell. For
now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly east
of moriches inlet and nearby the Race and Gardiner`s bay for
Thursday and Friday before winds subside further and likely remain
below advisory criteria through the weekend.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells
from Jose, will bring dangerous surf of 7-13 ft tonight into
Wed morning. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves
hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave
overtopping dunes) through Wednesday.

With good confidence in track of Jose 1500-200 miles to the SE
of Long Island, have weighted forecast towards most likely
scenario. This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 ft...locally
2 1/2 ft...of surge during tonight into Wed morning high tide
cycles, which would result in widespread minor to moderate
coastal flooding. These surge values will result in 2 to
locally 3 ft inundation in our most vulnerable locations along
the southern bays of LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with
generally 1 to locally 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal
areas. Wave action on top of elevated waters levels will
exacerbate impacts along the beachfront.

High surf will fall Wed afternoon into Wed Night, but remain
rough through the week. Additionally...minor coastal impacts are
likely to continue across vulnerable locales through the
remainder of the week as Jose sits about 250 miles se of the
region as Ekman pumping keeps elevated water levels along the
coast.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ074-075-178-
     179.
     Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ071-078>081-177.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for NYZ080-178-179.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-
     338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.
     Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ350-353.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC/JC
AVIATION...MD
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...