Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251824 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 224 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area through Wednesday before moving offshore Wednesday night. A warm front will lift toward the area late Thursday, followed by low pressure and a cold front on Friday. High pressure will build across this weekend before another low passes to the south early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Minor adjustments were made with this update. Upper trough passing through area may produce a few sprinkles over the next couple of hours, otherwise dry for the remainder of this afternoon. There will be a few breaks in the overcast as well, but it will remain mostly cloudy with a NE flow and a strong subsidence inversion around 750 mb. Otherwise, expect cool conditions with high temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s. There remains a high risk of rip currents at ocean beaches through this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will provide another unseasonably cool night with clearing skies. Low temperatures overnight will be in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. The high will remain in control on Wednesday before pushing offshore Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid/upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper level shortwave that is expected to dive out of central Canada, the Great Lakes region, then across the area Friday into Saturday, will need to be watched as global models differ on strength of this feature. Across eastern Canada, cutoff low develops this weekend, with lingering trough extending across the northeast states. As the weekend progresses, this low moves northeast. At the surface, high pressure to the east gives way to a weak warm front late Thursday. Sfc low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley Thursday, then toward the mid Atlantic coast early Friday. Due to differences aloft in the models, placement of sfc low, and strength of the low differs somewhat. At this time, it appears that consensus would place the low just to our south, along a cold frontal boundary Friday. This low moves east by Saturday, as high pressure builds from the west/northwest. This high should remain in control Saturday through Monday. As for sensible weather, shower chances increase late Thursday, with the best chance for showers, possible thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Still uncertainty with this system, but there is the potential for significant rainfall. Thereafter, dry conditions prevail. Do not foresee large temperatures differences/swings, with near normal readings anticipated. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the terminals through much of the TAF period, shifting offshore Wednesday night. MVFR cigs lift into VFR range this evening. VFR cigs near 3.5-4 kft linger during much of tonight. VFR continues into Wednesday while clouds become more scattered in coverage. Winds ENE to NE 10 kt or less for most terminals, becoming more SE Wednesday afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 1-3 hours beyond forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 1-3 hours beyond forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 1-3 hours beyond forecast. KTEB TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 2-4 hours beyond forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 2-4 hours beyond forecast. KISP TAF Comments: End time of MVFR could last 1-3 hours beyond forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon-Wednesday night...VFR. SE winds near 5-10 kt. .Thursday...MVFR possible, with chance of showers and possibly a tstm. .Thursday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible, with a chance of showers and possibly a tstm. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Small craft conditions expected across ocean waters through this evening, primarily for seas. High pressure builds across the area waters on Wednesday. High pressure departs Wednesday night, giving way to a warm front Thursday, then low pressure and associated cold front Thursday night through Friday. The low and cold front pass east Friday night as high pressure builds. Through the late week period, sub SCA conditions are generally expected. The only exception could be late Thursday night into Friday. Much depends on eventual strength of the low as it moves across the waters. Seas should remain 5 ft or less Wednesday night through Saturday, but the late Thursday night through Friday time frame needs to be monitored as the storm impacts the local waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through Wednesday. Additional rainfall is possible Thursday night through Friday, with a corresponding low chance for urban and poor drainage flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical high tides continue to run high, especially during the high tide cycle at night. Along the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens, less than a foot departure is needed to reach minor flooding thresholds. Departures there should run 1 to 1 1/2 feet above normal. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for these areas for tonight`s high tide cycle, with a coastal flood statement for locations adjacent to Lower New York Harbor for localized minor coastal flooding.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/PW NEAR TERM...Fig/DW/PW SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JM MARINE...Fig/PW HYDROLOGY...Fig/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW/DW

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