Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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414 FXUS61 KOKX 290545 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 145 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over southern Quebec will maintain a moist northeast flow off the Atlantic Ocean into the weekend as low pressure spins over the Ohio Valley. The high departs as a frontal boundary moves through this weekend. Another area of high pressure builds early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Forecast is on track. Minor changes made to reflect current conditions. Periods of light drizzle will continue to expand west across the local area. Patches of light rain advecting northeast across southern NJ will move across the NYC Metro area and areas west and north of NYC after 04z. Less than 1/10 of an inch of rain is forecast. A moist cool night is on tap as NE winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts continue along the coastal plain with lighter winds inland. There is a high-end moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic ocean beaches Thursday as strong longshore currents continue. The surf zone forecasts east of Moriches Inlet may need to be upgraded to a high risk of rip currents Thursday. The last scheduled surf zone forecast for this beach season is this Friday,September 30 && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Overall, expecting persistence with low clouds and light precipitation and a small diurnal range in temps. Chance for measurable QPF increases to categorical Thursday night as frontal boundary starts moving north and over-running is enhanced. Temps only top out in the Mid 60s - about 5 degrees or so below normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Blocked upper level pattern noted for much of the period, with large western Atlantic ridge holding Friday as cutoff upper low over the Ohio Valley remains nearly stationary through Friday night. Kicker upstream finally allows this cutoff to weaken and lift in time this weekend. By early next week, the Atlantic ridge gets pushed southeast as trough to the north lower heights across eastern Canada. Meanwhile, cutoff as already mentioned weakens as it moves east. However, differences arise by Tuesday as some solutions weaken this trough much more than other forms of guidance. Ridge builds east of the Mississippi by Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure to the north remains nearly stationary through Saturday as you would expect. Meanwhile, low pressure underneath cutoff remains well to the west, with frontal boundary located to our south. This front and triple point low lifts in time this weekend with the changing upper level pattern, and will be replaced by high pressure into early next week. Deep southerly flow between the offshore high, and the low to the west will lift over the warm front resulting in rain Friday and Friday night. With ample lift, moisture and presence of upper trough, expect rain chances to continue through the weekend. The weather may be more showery in nature for the latter portion of the weekend. Elevated weak instability could result in some thunder at times as well. Then mainly dry weather returns for the early to middle portion of the upcoming week. Below normal daytime temperatures Friday and Saturday are expected, due to the clouds, rain and easterly flow. Nighttime lows however remains slightly above normal. These daily temperatures will warm closer to normal early next week. Developing east flow maintains this near normal temperatures into the mid week period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Terminal area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest. Cigs mostly 800-1500 FT thru 12-14Z, lifting 2-3 KFT thereafter. VFR cigs possible for all terminals this aftn, especially north of the city. Winds NE averaging around 15 KT with gust 20-25 KT. Gusts might be only occasional. Periods of drizzle becoming less likely this afternoon. .Outlook for 06Z Thursday through Monday... .Thu Night-Sat Night...IFR/MVFR in rain. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt through Fri Night. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt Sat-Sat Night. .Sun-Mon...VFR. MVFR possible with showers Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory/SCA conds occurring on all waters and will do so overnight. Expect winds to increase slightly on Thursday. Expect minimal gales on the Ocean by late morning. Seas build to around 5 ft on the open portions of the Sound and 10 ft on the Ocean. Rough conditions continue Friday with high pressure to the north and a warm front just south, resulting in gusty easterly winds. Conditions will improve as the front lifts north this weekend, and the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will eventually build behind this frontal system early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... The more significant rainfall is expect to not arrive until Thursday overnight and continue into the weekend. Totals are expected to average around 1". The prolonged nature of the rain event should preclude any hydrologic issues. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A persistent moderate northeast flow through the week will elevate water levels with an increase in astronomical high tides. Water levels across the Atlantic Ocean facing south shore bays in Nassau and Queens approached minor tidal flooding benchmarks with this evening`s high tide cycles. Minor coastal flooding is expected on Thursday in the most vulnerable areas of the western Great South Bay. The region for minor flooding will likely expand for Friday`s high tides. Moderate levels of coastal flooding does not appear likely at this time except for the most vulnerable regions of southern Nassau. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/Tongue NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JC MARINE...Tongue/PW HYDROLOGY...Tongue/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.