Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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023 FXUS61 KOKX 221154 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 654 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to move offshore today, as a weak cold front dissipates as it crosses the area early this morning. High pressure centered well off the Carolina coast will influence the weather through Thursday. A spring-like pattern for the end of this week will transition into a more seasonal pattern for the second half of the weekend into the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Light patchy precipitation is expected this morning across the local area. Precipitation is very light with reports of only a trace. Will keep mention of slight chance pops across the cwa through this morning. Otherwise, minor adjustments were made to temperatures and dewpoints to reflect latest observations. High pressure is expected to be located off the Middle Atlantic coast today. A light southwest flow across the area will allow temperatures to climb into the 50s to around 60 degrees today. Dry weather with continued southwest flow expected tonight. The increase in low level moisture may result in the development of low clouds and patchy fog late tonight. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... High pressure remains offshore on Thursday with southwest flow across the area. Temperatures will continue to be mild with highs on Thursday in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models in fairly good agreement with east coast ridging to end the week...ahead of a PAC trough sliding into the central Plains Friday and then phasing with a polar low to the south of Hudson bay on Sat. The shearing trough slides through the NE on Sunday...with generally zonal flow heading into early next week. Unseasonably mild conditions continue Fri/Sat in deep SW flow ahead of the Pac trough and associated strong low pressure moving through the central US and into the Great Lakes. Although temps will be above normal on FRI...A PAC shortwave and associated low pressure moving through Southern Quebec Thursday Night will push a cold front through the region Thu Night/Fri. Latest GFS/NAM and high res solutions indicating this cold front remaining south of the region through Fri night...with a Canadian Maritime influence on the region. This would result in stratus and temps holding in the 50s for much of the region on Fri. Have trended forecast in that direction based on climatology and better resolving NAM/high-res solutions. With weak warm advection over the frontal boundary to the south...and weak shortwave energy moving through aloft...a few showers possible on Fri. If front remains to the south of the region Fri night...an increasing chance for stratus...drizzle and fog could be expected Friday Night into Sat morning as low-levels moisten and isentropic lift begins to increases. Models in decent agreement with PAC upper low shearing into the northern stream low on Saturday...with associated trough and frontal system swinging towards the region late in the day and then though Sat night. Warm front should be able to gradually move north on Sat with strengthening llj...with temps climbing back into the 60s on gusty southerly flow by late in the day. Main rain activity appears to be along and possibly just in wake of the cold front late Sat into Sat eve as 40-50 kt llj and approaching shortwave energy interact with +2-3 std of gulf moisture and weak elevated instability. Potential for a brief period of moderate/heavy rain and even some embedded thunder with activity along the front. Heaviest activity though looks to be to the North and West of the region with stronger shortwave forcing and better . In the wake of the front...a dry and cooler airmass will build in for Sat night/Sunday on gusty NW flow. Temps should cool to near seasonable levels for Sunday. Lack of model consensus continues for Monday and Tuesday with generally weak northern stream and Pac energy moving through the region in a near zonal upper flow. Signals for an associated weak system with light precip to move through the NE/Mid Atlantic...but at this point does not look like much of an event. Thermal profile supporting would support wintry precip if precip was heavy enough. Otherwise moderating conditions heading towards midweek...with considerable model spread in timing/intensity of next system. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weak cold front will dissipate across the region this morning. Meanwhile, high pressure remains off the Mid Atlantic coast into Thursday morning. A few sprinkles or a light rain shower are possible prior to 15Z this morning in association with the dissipating front. Any rain should be brief, with northern terminals having the best chance of seeing any precipitation. VFR conditions through the daylight hours today will give way to MVFR or lower after sunset as fog and/or low stratus begin to develop. MVFR visibilities initially develop after 03Z at coastal terminals before spreading inland around 06Z. After this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty related to the specific timing, location, and duration of any lower ceilings/visibilities Thursday morning. The best chance for IFR or lower conditions appears to be between 09-15Z before conditions gradually improve during the late morning. Light southerly flow during the day today will give way to light and variable winds at all terminals tonight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected during the daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing MVFR or lower conditions tonight. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected during the daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing MVFR or lower conditions tonight. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected during the daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing MVFR or lower conditions tonight. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected during the daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing MVFR or lower conditions tonight. KHPN TAF Comments: A brief sprinkle or light rain shower is possible this morning. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing MVFR or lower conditions tonight. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected during the daylight hours today. Uncertainty exists in the timing of developing MVFR or lower conditions tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Friday...MVFR or lower in stratus and fog. .Saturday...MVFR likely with rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Gusty S winds. .Sunday...VFR...Gusty NW winds.
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&& .MARINE... A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters will limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to remain below small craft advisory levels through Thursday. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels from Thursday Night through Friday night. Small Craft Advisory criteria is likely over the weekend associated with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday. 1/4/ to 3/4 inch of rain...with locally up to an inch is possible late Saturday into Saturday night. No significant hydrological impacts are expected. && .CLIMATE... The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Thursday February 23, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record Max Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------ ---------------------------- Central Park........55 (1985) 46 LaGuardia...........54 (1985) 46 Kennedy.............47 (1990) 43 Islip...............46 (1990) 40 Newark..............51 (1985) 45 Bridgeport..........40 (1985) 40 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/NV NEAR TERM...Fig SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...FEB MARINE...Fig/NV HYDROLOGY...Fig/NV CLIMATE...

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