-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 070331
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS IT
MOVES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NOTE TO MEDIA...MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY ENHANCEMENT ON RADAR IS
FROM BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. PLEASE VIEW DUAL POL PRODUCTS FOR
CLEARER UNDERSTANDING. ALSO A GOOD TIME TO SPREAD THE WORD ABOUT
THE NOAA NSSL PING PROJECT. THANKS.

THE GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE PICTURE
WITH A RIVER OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO NEWFOUNDLAND.

WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.

STILL SEEING RAIN AND SLEET WELL INLAND...AND MOSTLY RAIN
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH AN AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR VISITING THE WFO THIS
EVENING OBSERVED OCNL LIGHT SNOW HERE ON CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.
PRECIP CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW JUST NORTH/WEST OF ORANGE COUNTY
ATTM...AND THINK INTERIOR SECTIONS NORTH/WEST WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD NOSE DOES NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR PURE SLEET AND HAVE EMPHASIZED MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT. STILL THINK HIGH END SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE 3-4 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY...AND MORE LIKELY 1-2 INCHES. HAVE KEPT THE WSW
GOING FOR NOW BASED ON THESE ACCUMULATIONS...ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT PRECIP COULD END AS A BRIEF PD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF COLD CLOUD SEEDER/FEEDER
NUCLEATION. AT ANY RATE...TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY BY
MORNING AREA WILL MAKE FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL.

THE I-84 CORRIDOR IN SW CT SHOULD ALSO GET ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO.

THE COAST SHOULD SEE NEARLY ALL RAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANY LEFTOVER PCPN WILL END QUICKLY VERY EARLY SATURDAY AM...WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE.

TEMPS RISE TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY (GFS MOS
USED)...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES RESULTS IN A COLD
NIGHT FORM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LEANED TOWARDS COLDER NAM MOS
NUMBERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL
POSSIBLY START OUT AS SNOW AND/OR SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ON
MONDAY...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES COULD HOLD ON THE WINTRY MIXTURE LONGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE WARM AIR PUSHES THROUGH.

AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY INLAND. WHATEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION THE
CITY/COAST COULD MANAGE WOULD BE WASHED AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NE FROM VIRGINIA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON SAT.

A MIXED BAG OF CONDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY DUE TO THE
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP THAT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN
TERMINALS CAUSING CONDS TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR. VFR CONDS ARE
PREVAILING AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH KBDR SHOULD BE
CLIPPED BY THE HEAVIER PRECIP BRINGING CONDS TO AT LEAST MVFR AT TIMES.

P-TYPE BECOMES SOMEWHAT TRICKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...PREDOMINANTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN
A MIX OF -RAPL OR EVEN -SN IS POSSIBLE AND THEN -DZ AFT 08Z WITH
MID LEVEL DRYING. KSWF IS MORE COMPLEX DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE END TIME OF THE PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR WORKS IN.

CONDS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
IS EXPECTED UNTIL IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z W TO E.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 040
MAGNETIC THIS EVE...AND RIGHT OF 310 MAG ON SAT.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 040
MAGNETIC THIS EVE...AND RIGHT OF 310 MAG ON SAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 040
MAGNETIC THIS EVE...AND RIGHT OF 310 MAG ON SAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CONDS BETWEEN VFR AND IFR NEXT FEW
HOURS. P-TYPE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED PRE-DAWN SAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CONDS BETWEEN VFR AND IFR NEXT FEW
HOURS. P-TYPE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED PRE-DAWN SAT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CONDS BETWEEN VFR AND IFR NEXT FEW
HOURS. P-TYPE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED PRE-DAWN SAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
SE WINDS 10-15 KT...BECMG NW LATE.
.MON NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.TUE...VFR. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 15-25 KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL SCA ON THE OCEAN ATTM...AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY SAT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. OCEAN SEAS COULD PUSH 6-7 FT BY MORNING...AND
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL BELOW 5 FT OUT EAST. SCA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED OUT EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS...WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING STORM. SEAS AND WINDS FALL
BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 3/4 ON AN
INCH LIQUID. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...FIG/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...