Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 172115 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 515 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Deepening low pressure will track slowly east across eastern Canada to start the week. A series of weak cold fronts and/or troughs will swing through the area Monday into Monday night. Low pressure brings a cold front through the area on Wednesday. High pressure then briefly moves in for Thursday with another frontal system possible for Friday and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Temperatures have been running warmer than forecasted while dewpoints have been drier. Have adjusted the forecast based on the latest observations. ALl else remains on track. A digging upper trough over the Great Lakes will drop into the eastern third of the country to start the week. At the same time, deepening surface low pressure over eastern Canada will track slowly east. This will allow for a cooler airmass to start work into the region tonight. Still though, with west winds staying up a bit, lows tonight will range from the lower 30s inland to the upper 30s/lower 40s at the coast. This is about 5 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A gradual cool down is expected during this time as an upper trough moves across the area through Monday night, then offshore on Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures close to seasonable levels on Monday, but trending to a few degrees below normal by the time Tuesday arrives. In addition, low pressure will track slowly east across eastern Canada during this time, while high pressure drops south from the Central Plains to the Gulf coast. This will maintain a gusty west flow during with daytime gusts of 20 to 30 mph, highest on Tuesday. In addition, this will be combined with an anomalously dry airmass with RH values of 30 to 40 percent each afternoon. This will aid the spread of any wildfires that develop. See Fire Weather Section below. Expect mainly dry conditions, but some of the CAMs are hinting at a brief sprinkle and/or shower Monday aft/eve north and west of the NYC metro. For the time, have kept it out of the forecast with the dry, subsident west flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large upper level trough over the Northeast remains in place midweek with cooler temperatures for the area. Embedded energy in the trough approaches from the northwest on Wednesday brining with it an associated surface low pressure system. This low passes to our north, dragging a cold front through the area during the day on Wednesday. This may bring a few showers to the northern half of the CWA, though a lack of moisture will prevent there being widespread precipitation. The cold front moves through by Wednesday night with high pressure attempting to build in from the west. As the low to the east pulls away and the high pressure approaching from the west, a tightening pressure gradient will allow for increasingly breezy northwest winds to advect cooler air into the area for Thursday. Heights rise a bit as the mid-level flow become more zonal and high pressure moves over the area. Models then differ as to the handling of the potential next system. The GFS brings a low to our south and a low to our north near the area, bringing a round of rain/snow Friday night with high pressure settling in over the weekend. The GDPS has a slower coastal low over the Carolinas track nearby to our south, bringing better chances for precip to southern portions of our CWA on Saturday, with high pressure to the north keeping it from moving directly into the region. The ICON and ECMWF bring a weak disturbance from the west and north on Friday night, with high pressure building over the weekend as a delayed coastal low to our south is unable to impact us. Given the discrepancies in these solutions, have only kept chance POPs in the forecast during this time frame due to lingering uncertainties. All models do agree on some upper-level ridging into the weekend. Temperatures for the extended period will be largely at or below average. Temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Wednesday, dropping into the low to middle 40s for Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in from the southwest through the forecast period. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. KSWF may see a shower move through early this evening, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF. W to WNW winds through the TAF period. Sustained winds of 15-20 kt this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Winds diminish this evening, around 23Z or thereafter. Gusts return around 15Z Monday, slightly weaker, at 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust to 30 kt is possible. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from forecast. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: VFR. W to WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt, becoming WNW in the evening Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly mixed with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt. Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Marginal SCA conditions through Monday. Current SCA on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet is set to expire before midnight. Confidence is too low to issue for gusty westerly flow on Monday. However, confidence increases Monday night into Tuesday with a chance of a SCA on all waters. Near Small Craft conditions possible on the ocean Tuesday night but gradual subsiding in the wind and waves should allow for sub-SCA conditions on all waters by Wednesday morning. A tightening pressure gradient by Wednesday afternoon and evening will allow for widespread small craft conditions on all waters by Wednesday evening. SCA conditions likely persist through the day on Thursday before gradually subsiding Thursday night. Sub- SCA conditions are expected through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier conditions are expected Monday with the minimum relative humidity 30 to 40 percent, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph, and gusts 20 to 25 mph. An SPS has been issued for the state of CT for elevated fire weather concerns on Monday. This was coordinated with state partners. Tuesday and Thursday minimum relative humidity will again range from 25 to 30 percent, with Wednesday`s 35 to 45 percent. Gusty westerly winds are expected during the day Tuesday through Thursday. The highest winds and gusts are expected Thursday with winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/DW NEAR TERM...BR/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...JP MARINE...BR/DW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BR/DW

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