Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280656 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 256 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING NORTH AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN. BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL HEATING...AS WELL AS ALONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS UP THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO EXISTS. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY EVENING WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN. STRONG GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS END THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN...COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TOWARD 04Z. STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM 05Z SOUTH AND WEST TO 09Z TO 12Z NORTH AND EAST. AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO CONNECTICUT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10KT TO 15KT TONIGHT INCREASES MONDAY UP TO 15KT TO 20KT...WITH GUSTS 25KT TO 30KT. WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE LOW AND FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .MON NIGHT-THU...VFR. .FRI...VFR. ISO SHRA/TSTM. && .MARINE...
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INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME. THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM... AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...PW

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