Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261051 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 551 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST COAST TODAY AND SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE LOWS PASS ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY T/TD AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT MILD EARLY WINTER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BROAD RIDGING BUILDING UP THE EAST COAST...A LIGHT WLY FLOW AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 4C SHOULD YIELD SFC HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PRES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH ITS RESIDUAL ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND GREAT LAKES ON SAT BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEMS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTN/EVE WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND SUN NIGHT/MON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH THE FROPA AND KEEPS ALL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO THE S. THE 00Z EC IS WETTER THAN THE 12Z RUN AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS. ONE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLNS HOWEVER IS THE TIMING OF THE WAVE PASSING TO THE S. GFS IS SUN NIGHT AND EC IS MON. THIS WILL NEED TO BE RECTIFIED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT DUE TO THE OVERALL WETTER TREND...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING ON SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER TO MID 50S SAT AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUN. LOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE FLATTENS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN A TREND TOWARDS MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE NEXT WEEK IS THE VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. LIKEWISE...A VERY COLD SOURCE OF AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. THIS AIRMASS GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY INTO POSSIBLY MONDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR IN PLACE HERE BUT AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT AGAIN WITH AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT AMOUNTS...NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVERALL A COLDER TREND. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. VFR. FEW-SCT 2 KFT CU LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. W FLOW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT TILL DAYBREAK. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS CITY TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS SW LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WSW FLOW TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 300 TRUE (310 MAG) TODAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 300 TRUE (310 MAG) TODAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 300 TRUE (310 MAG) TODAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. .SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. .MON...VFR. .TUE...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS DROPPED THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO FALL. AT THIS POINT...ANY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE OCCASIONAL. SEAS ARE JUST BELOW 5 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SUNDAY WHEN 5 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OCEAN SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW TREND WITH THE RESPONSE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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