Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291751 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OR WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGION AT NORTHWEST CORNER OF SUB TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SO AVERAGE OUT TO MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY. SEABREEZE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...JUST DEVELOPING A TAD SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THERMAL GRADIENT IS LARGER SOONER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BETWEEN COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE OCEAN/SOUND...PLUS LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKER...SO CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF FAR W PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING UP A TAD FASTER THAN EXPECTED...AND ALREADY ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS...SO HAVE TWEAKED UP A DEGREE OR SO IN MOST LOCATIONS...CONSISTENT WITH A LAV/MAV/MET BLEND. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH...ONE TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER SUN NIGHT. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL BE PRECEDED BY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS LATE SUN AFT/NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY MON. AIRMASS WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED WITH LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NORTH AND WEST OF NYC IN THE LATE AFT/EARLY EVE SUN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT WITH VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HIGH WILL BE IN THE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MON WITH A FEW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND METRO NY. FORTUNATELY...DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONCE AGAIN...USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES. MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. LIKELY SUPPRESSING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WELL TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS FORECAST ARE MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE SEA BREEZE TIMING WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. AMENDMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE TO ADJUST THIS TIMING. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT SOME TERMINALS AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT GOING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LOWER TONIGHT. THE GUSTS WILL BE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...15-20 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT PLAYING A ROLE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR TERMINALS N/W OF NYC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THE MOMENT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY....VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS EACH DAY.
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&& .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFT AND AGAIN SUN AFT/EVE INTO MON LOOKS TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA AS GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE...SEAS ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FT OR LESS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A FULL MOON TONIGHT...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DW/PW AVIATION...JM MARINE...MALOIT/DW/PW HYDROLOGY...DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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