Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220532 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 132 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD LIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS LARGELY REMAINED OFFSHORE. THE ONLY AREA THAT WILL SEE ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH FORK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO SEE IF THE HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR...GIVEN WHAT LITTLE HAS FALLEN ALREADY. THE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA HAS GROWN IN COVERAGE...MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE HRRR. SO...CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY SE CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT...WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...TO POSSIBLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT THE NYC METRO...WHERE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF OR WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. A GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEST FLOW AND BRIEF WARM AIR ADVECTION TOMORROW...WILL RESULT IN NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COOL...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO NEAR OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND RETURN SW FLOW SETS UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. TIMING OF A WARM FRONTAL APPROACH AND ITS EVENTUAL PASSAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PER BLEND OF 00Z/12Z ECMWF...THINK THE FRONT WILL HANG UP TO THE SW ON MON...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THEN LIFT TO THE NE TUE MORNING. A WEAK LEE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN AFTER FROPA THAT SHOULD PROMOTE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST FROM TUE THROUGH THU. TEMPS NEAR AVG ON MON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE AVG TUE-THU...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 INLAND...AND 75-80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE WEST/NW FROM AROUND NOON TO AROUND 6 PM...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NW. SPEEDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BY NOON INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT LATE IN THE DAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. .SAT...VFR. W WINDS 10-20KT IN THE AFTN. .SUN...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-25KT. .MON...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT. SHRA POSSIBLE. .TUE...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING TURN TOWARD BACK TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH 25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT GUSTS NEAR SHORE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NY HARBOR AND WESTERN LI SOUND. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS. THINKING THAT SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS. COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SAT...BUT MORE LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SCA CONDS WILL COME FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW 15-20 KT PUSHES SEAS AS HIGH AS 5 FT ON THE OUTERMOST AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY MAY STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND W-NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. KBDI IS IN THE 100S ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND IN THE 200S ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE. WITH MARGINAL RH VALUES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY RED FLAG HEADLINES AND CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO. SAT COULD ALSO BE A DAY OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO...SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 20S AND NW-W WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERN ZONES SUCH AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT...QPF WOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH. QPF WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OVER 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE. DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE THROUGH THU COULD ALSO BRING LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMTS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...BC/JP SHORT TERM...BC/JP LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...PW MARINE...BC/GOODMAN FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN

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