Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 222040 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 340 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in through Friday. After a cold frontal passage this weekend, high pressure will build into the region next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front will usher in a noticeably colder airmass for tonight into the day tomorrow. Under clearing skies, overnight lows will fall to around freezing in the city and into the low to mid 20s across typically cooler outlying areas. While gusts will diminish after midnight as high pressure begins to build in from the west, there should be just enough wind overnight to prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As high pressure continues to build into the region, Thanksgiving Day will feature plenty of sunshine, but cool temperatures. Highs will rise into the low to mid 40s, about 5-10 degrees below normal. A weak shortwave will cross the region Thursday night, with the only impact to sensible weather being a brief increase in cloud cover overnight. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than tonight, ranging from the mid 20s in outlying areas to the mid 30s in and around New York City. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build offshore Friday, resulting in return southwesterly flow. This will allow temperatures to rebound to near 50. A lack of moisture looks to produce a sunny day as well. Clouds increase on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. There does remain some uncertainty for the day. The NAM indicates a rainy day with low pressure close to the coast. All of the other data keeps this storm way offshore. The incoming 15Z SREF data brings the probability of rain to around 15-25%. Chances in the official forecast have been limited to slight. The cold front comes through Saturday night. This could squeeze out a few sprinkles or a period of very light rain. Slight chances continue for this then the area is dried out overnight. Cooler weather on Sunday and dry. Breezy with northwest winds gusting to perhaps 30 mph or so per the time heights. A shot of rain is again possible Wednesday with a cold frontal passage, otherwise fair weather is expected at this time with a lack of moisture advection into the region. The superblend was generally used for temperatures. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west tonight and Thursday. Any lingering MVFR ceilings are expected to scour out, with VFR by evening and through the remainder of the TAF period as skies clear. Gusty NW winds of 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt are forecast late this afternoon/early evening. Winds taper off as the evening progresses, with gusts abated by around midnight. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt overnight. NW winds slowly back toward the W/NW Thursday morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Patchy MVFR ceilings possible early. Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 2-3Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Patchy MVFR ceilings possible early. Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 2-3Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Patchy MVFR ceilings possible early. Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 1-3Z. KTEB TAF Comments: Patchy MVFR ceilings possible early. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 1-3Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Patchy MVFR ceilings possible early. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 2-3Z. KISP TAF Comments: Patchy MVFR ceilings possible early. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 2-3Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday afternoon-Friday night...VFR. NW winds back to the W/SW. SW winds G15-20KT possible Friday night, mainly at eastern terminals. .Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR possible in rain. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Saturday night. .Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30KT possible. .Monday...VFR. Winds back and lighten. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters through tonight as winds gust to 25-30 kt in the wake of a cold front. Gusts will begin to subside overnight as high pressure builds into the region, but seas are expected to remain elevated on the ocean at least through the day on Thursday. With this in mind, the SCA was extended on the ocean through the day on Thursday. 5 ft waves may linger into Thursday night before diminishing. Winds and seas could creep up to close to Small Craft Advisory levels Friday and Friday night on the eastern ocean, otherwise conditions will remain below criteria elsewhere. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on the ocean again on Saturday. All areas will likely see winds hit 25 kt Saturday night and Sunday behind a cold front, with improvement then on Monday. Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels on Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/JMC NEAR TERM...FEB SHORT TERM...FEB LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...PW MARINE...FEB/JMC HYDROLOGY...FEB/JMC

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