Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 302041 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 441 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372 LOCALLY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ESSEX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NE NJ. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS YOU GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ TO NYC VIA ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT GIVEN STRUCTURE OF SOME STORMS TO THE WEST DECIDED TO GO ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST FOR DYING GASPS AND/OR LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS OF STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY APPROACH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO LONG ISLAND OR SOUTHERN CT GIVEN STABLE LOW LEVEL MARITIME ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR AND KTEB MAY BE IMPACTED AS WELL. STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z...OR WOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A FEW UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S. OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...PW MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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