Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 021915 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...JET DIVES FROM CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS UPSTREAM. FOR OUR AREA...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SLOWLY RISE. PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERALL. AS SUCH...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT. AS PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS FOG DEVELOPMENT THE MORE LIKELY RESULT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S PER MOS. BLEND USED. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... PERSISTENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY START TO THE DAY IS FORECAST...WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...AND WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COASTS. BLENDED MET/MAV AND ECS. 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THUS SLOW PROGRESSION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL LIFT AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE TROUGH...AND AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NAM LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION EAST. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. AS FOR STORM STRENGTH...IF ANY STORMS MAKE INTO OUR NW ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...AMPLE WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD HELP SUSTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THIS IS TRUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND S/SW DEEP FLOW PERSISTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE NEW WEEK. GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS DRY OUT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA...CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 90 THROUGHOUT. SFC HIGH PRES THEN PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...AND A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THE TRACK OF EACH LOW AND HAVE RESULTED IN DIFFERENT TRACKS WITH EACH RUN...BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME...AS AT LEAST 2 DIFFERENT AREAS OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONDS DRYING OUT BY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. S-SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT INLAND...AND AROUND OR JUST OVER 10 KT ALONG THE COAST. LATE DAY SSE SEA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED AT KEWR/KTEB. VFR AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON WHICH SHOULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT ON THIS FIRST NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU... .MON AFTERNOON...GUSTY S FLOW. CHANCE OF TSTMS LATE AT KSWF. .MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT. .WED...VFR. W FLOW. .THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY...MOVING CLOSE TO THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE SCA BEGINNING 20Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES MAY PASS ACROSS THE WATERS...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE E OF NYC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW

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