Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 192042 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 342 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY AND PASSES EAST BY SUNDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AFTER AN INITIAL DROP IN TEMPS EARLY ON...SW WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES OF RISING TEMPS WILL BE OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WHERE THERE IS BETTER EXPOSURE TO WINDS ARRIVING OFF THE WARMER WATERS. ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND A LLJ MOVING THROUGH SUPPLIES SOME LIFT...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES...SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING...BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE...EXPECTING A DRY PASSAGE. CAA ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAYTIME...SO THE PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED PRIMARILY BY A DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WHAT MINOR CAA DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE OFFSET TO A DEGREE BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW. LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON FORECAST TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT... INCREASING CAA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SE CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TROUGH MOVES EAST...REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PACIFIC ENERGY EVENTUALLY DIVES ACROSS THE SW AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A DEEP MID WEST TROUGH BY MONDAY...ALLOWING RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BY MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...PASSING TO THE NORTH AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...PASSING JUST TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN FACT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL UP POPS A CATEGORY. TEMPS FRIDAY REMAIN QUITE CHILLY. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENTLY STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE 30S...WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE EXPECTED HIGHS/LOWS ARE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. BY SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY...WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND JUMPS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 60S AS AREA REMAINS WARM SECTORED. THEN TEMPS COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND WED...WITH WED BEING THE COLDER DAY. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH KGON COULD SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SNOW FLURRY OR RAIN SPRINKLE LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. WSW-SW FLOW AT 10-15 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT BEFORE EVENING. GUSTS PICK UP TONIGHT AT COASTAL TERMINALS...AROUND 20 KT INITIALLY...INCREASING THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES. THE GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY TOWARDS COASTAL TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 2 HRS FROM FORECAST. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 2 HRS FROM FORECAST. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 2 HRS FROM FORECAST. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 2 HRS FROM FORECAST. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 2 HRS FROM FORECAST. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING COULD BE +/- 2 HRS FROM FORECAST. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY W FLOW 20-25 KT...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. .FRI...VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT. .FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS/GUSTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LLJ PASSING THROUGH. SOME CAA/GUSTINESS THEN FOLLOWS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OCCURRING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR FOR SCA. AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE EXISTING GALE WARNING IN TIME TO INCLUDE ALL OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF WINDS INCREASING AGAIN FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR THE HARBOR/NY HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W/NW WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W/SW...THEN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...AND WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...FAIRLY GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SUB SCA THOUGH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS RAMP BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS YET AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL FOLLOW WAVE WATCH III FAIRLY CLOSELY...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SEA FORECAST ARE A FOOT OR TWO TOO LOW SATURDAY GIVEN EXPECTED WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME. && .CLIMATE... SOME RECORDS HAVE BEEN BROKEN FOR LOWS TODAY... NYC....18/1936 JFK....27/2008 NOW 23 LGA....28/2008 NOW 23 EWR....19/1936 BDR....24/1986 NOW 23 ISP....23/1997 NOW 22 THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY... NYC....34/1882 JFK....37/2008 LGA....35/1951 EWR....35/1951 BDR....35/2008 ISP....35/2008 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/PW NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JM MARINE...JC/PW HYDROLOGY...JC/PW CLIMATE...

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