Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 301143 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 743 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVES NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY...AND STALLS IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 13Z FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW LONDON COUNTY CONNECTICUT. AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS FOR MIDDLESEX AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES. THE FOG HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE HERE...BUT ALREADY SEEING IMPROVEMENTS ON LATEST NEW HAVEN AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER NEAR THE COAST. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S FROM THE CITY NORTH AND WEST AND THE UPPER 70S FURTHER EAST WITH ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY NEAR 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF HEATING EXPECTED AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL SO HAVE MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. STRONGEST RIP CURRENTS WOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BROKEN SKY COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THE CITY NORTH AND WEST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. LONG ISLAND MAY NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN REMAINS FROM THE CITY NORTH AND WEST. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LIKELY LIFTS BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF A CLOSED LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE REGION ALSO WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDING SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE A BIT FROM SUNDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW TAPPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST INVOF THE NYC METRO. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CLEAR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE BE SLOWEST WITH THIS AND KEEPS SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL. FRIDAY LIKELY REMAINS DRY AS WELL WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO THE NW. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST...MOVING NEAR THE NYC AREA TERMINALS TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR. AND LINGERING IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE 13Z TO 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE...MOVING INTO THE NYC TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ALONG THE COAST AFTER 08Z THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN STRATUS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY-TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MARGINAL VFR TO IFR CEILINGS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MARGINAL VFR TO IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR. .WEDNESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG ACROSS MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...AND THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST WATERS. OTHERWISE WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE NEAR 25 KT AT TIMES. WITH A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW...BY SUNDAY MORNING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 5 FT AND REMAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY...BUT A LINGERING SWELL MAY KEEP OCEAN SEAS AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY...AND PROBABLY THROUGH MOST OF WED AS WELL. && .HYDROLOGY... FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1.25 TO AROUND 2 INCHES. AS USUAL...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAM FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ESPECIALLY WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST MONTH OR SO. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ008-012. NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340- 345-350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JC/DS AVIATION...MET MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...DS

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