Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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671 FXUS61 KOKX 240607 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 107 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move slowly off the coast through Friday. This will be followed by a cold front late Saturday. High pressure will then follow through Tuesday. A cold front will move across the area Wednesday followed by high pressure Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Mid level trough axis moves across late this evening with some associated mid level clouds, mostly across the interior locations. Expect these to diminish later overnight into daybreak Friday. With light winds, still expecting some decent radiational cooling. Used 18Z MAV guidance to better reflect these lows overnight with more of a range from low 20s to low 30s. High pressure will remain centered over the mid atlantic states with a W flow near 10 mph tonight. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Fair weather with increasing temperatures are on tap for the local area. Low level warm air advection will develop by Friday afternoon and increase Friday night as a strong low pressure system moves east across southeast Canada, north of New England. Southwest winds will transport warmer air northeast across the region, bringing near normal temperatures during the day Friday then above normal temperatures Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will be approaching from the Ohio Valley Saturday. Models do not have a significant amount of precipitation forecast with this frontal passage. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the low 50s along the coast and mid to upper 40s inland. Pressure gradient will increase behind the front on Saturday night and into Sunday, which will increase winds to 15 to 20 mph. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 30 to near 40. High pressure builds in on Sunday into Tuesday. Temperatures in the mid to upper 40s Sunday and Monday will begin to rise into the low to mid 50s by Tuesday, which is above normal for this time of year. A cold front is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture associated with this front is expected to dissipate as it approaches our area and the frontal passage may end up being precipitation free. Even with the frontal passage, temperatures are forecast to be above normal into Wednesday. High pressure builds back on Thursday with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to build to the south today, moving east tonight.. VFR through the TAF period. WNW-W flow gradually becomes SW/S this afternoon. Wind speeds remaining below 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Late Friday Night...VFR. .Saturday-Saturday Night...Low chance of -SHRA and MVFR with frontal passage Sat Eve. Windshift from SW to NW late afternoon/evening. Gusts 20-30KT develop late Saturday night with isolated rain/snow showers. .Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30kt. .Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. W winds G15-25kt. .Tuesday...VFR. SW winds G15-25kt.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain tranquil through the day Friday. The next chance for reaching SCA levels will be Friday Night and Saturday across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters as SW winds increase to 15-20 kt and seas rebuild to around 5 feet. Below small craft advisory level conditions continue on all non-ocean zones on Saturday with small craft conditions likely over the ocean waters through Sunday behind a frontal system. As high pressure builds across the area waters Sunday night into Monday seas will improve. Ocean seas may builds towards small craft conditions again Tuesday into Tuesday Night ahead of next frontal system and remain above small craft conditions through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through the next 7 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/Fig NEAR TERM...GC/JM SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JM/NV MARINE...GC/Fig HYDROLOGY...GC/Fig

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