Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291722 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 122 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track out to sea today, allowing high pressure to build in on Thursday. Low pressure will impact the area Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday through Monday night. Another area of low pressure affects the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure continues to build southward into the region today. The high, combined with an exiting low pressure system will produce northerly winds into tonight. Expect mostly sunny skies today with just some fair weather cumulus this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Moderate mixing will allow for temperatures to eclipse highs of the past few days, despite the essentially cooler airmass. The guidance was in good agreement so a blend was used. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... High pressure drifts across the forecast area resulting in fair weather and light winds. Mid and high clouds will filter out the sunshine from time to time. A blend of the guidance, which was in good agreement, was used for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Operational models are in fairly good agreement in the long term. High pressure at the surface pushes off the New England coast Thursday night. Warm air advection allows clouds to lower and thicken, with precipitation moving in mainly late Thursday night as a weakening surface low form the mid-West approaches. Precipitation may start out as a brief period of wintry mix inland. Little, if any accumulation is expected. Precipitation continues into Friday, with plain rain everywhere by the afternoon. The rain may come down moderate to heavy at times Friday night as a secondary low develops off the mid-Atlantic coast, creating a decent amount of lift throughout the column to support the heavier rainfall. Precipitable water values exceeding an inch late Friday night is well above the average for the date, given climatology. After some lingering showers Saturday morning, surface high pressure builds in thereafter, keeping the area dry through the rest of the weekend into Monday. High pressure pushes off the East Coast on Monday night, allowing for another low to affect the area Tuesday. Temperatures during the long term will be seasonable, with the exception of Friday and Saturday. Cloudy skies and rain will keep temperatures below normal these days. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through tonight and then moves over the terminals on Thursday. VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be to the right of 310 magnetic at metro terminals through tonight. Gusts around 20 kt will gradually diminish through early this evening. Winds continue to weaken overnight, generally falling below 10 kt. Light N-NNE winds under 10 kt expected on Thursday morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Wind direction will be to the right of 310 magnetic. Gusts around 20 kt should end 20-22z. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind direction will be to the right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may occasional through 21z. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind direction will be to the right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may occasional through 21z KTEB TAF Comments: Wind direction will be to the right of 310 magnetic. Gusts may occasional through 21z KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts around 20 kt should end 20-22z. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts gradually weaken through the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday...VFR. .Thursday Night...Mainly VFR, chance of rain/snow mix inland and rain near coast. .Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions developing in rain for for metro terminals, with IFR in wintry mix possible for northern terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions in rain likely in the afternoon. .Friday night and Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain likely with gradual improvement by Saturday afternoon/evening. E/NE winds G20-30KT at coastal terminals. .Sunday-Monday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Northerly winds will increase today as low pressure tracks out to sea. Winds could approach Small Craft Advisory levels tonight on the ocean, before diminishing again on Thursday. Winds should remain below 25 kt through Friday morning. An approaching frontal system will increase the pressure gradient across the waters and bring wind gusts along the ocean waters to 25 kt to 30 kt Friday afternoon into Saturday (a brief lull possible late Friday night). Peconic and Gardiner`s Bays may see gusts 25 kt to 30 kt late Friday night into Saturday, while the back bays may see 25 kt gusts Friday night. Winds diminish Saturday night, and remain below SCA criteria for the rest of the long term. Waves build to 5 to 8 ft on the ocean Friday night into Saturday morning, then diminish Saturday night, but should remain above 5 ft through Sunday morning. Thereafter, waves remain below 5 ft through the rest of the long term. && .HYDROLOGY... Between 1 and 1.5 inches of QPF is possible from Thursday night through Saturday. Locally higher amounts are possible. At this time, flooding is not expected, though some minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible during this time frame. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Isolated minor tidal flooding is possible tonight due to high astronomical tides. An approaching low pressure system will likely bring some minor coastal flood impacts to vulnerable coastal communities during the Friday Night high tide. Tidal departures of 1 to 1 1/2 ft are needed to reach minor flood levels and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for moderate flood levels during that time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...12/JP NEAR TERM...BC/12/JP SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DS MARINE...12/JP HYDROLOGY...JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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