Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 210541 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 141 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Jose well southeast of the twin forks of Long Island will drift northeast through tonight, then meander well offshore through Thursday night. Meanwhile, high pressure builds over the area Thursday and remains in place through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Jose is located about 250 miles southeast of the twin forks of Long Island and will continue to drift to the east-northeast away from the coast through the early morning hours. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. Rain bands continue to spiral just east of the forecast area, however, with a ridge building to the west and northwest, dry air and subsidence will keep the area precip free overnight. Although the region will be dry, an expansive cloud shield associated with Jose will remain across much of the area tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The upper ridge and surface high will build into the area early Thursday and then remain into Thursday night. Jose will continue to meander well to the southeast of the area into Thursday, and with the ridge in place late Thursday Jose is expected to begin slowly moving to the west with weak steering currents. By late Thursday night rain bands may begin to move back into the far eastern sections and will again have slight to low end chance probabilities over the far eastern sections toward Friday morning. Again, please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. Dangerous rip currents will continue at Atlantic ocean beaches through Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The center of Jose`s remnants are expected to meander about 150-200 miles to the SE of Montauk Friday through the weekend. Associated showers may be able to sneak into eastern LI and SE CT Friday and Saturday, but with the system weakening further, will keep with a dry forecast for Saturday night and Sunday through Monday. Cannot completely rule out showers for these periods as well as Jose`s remnants may linger around. Clouds may prevent high temperatures from rising above normal levels east of the city for Friday and Saturday, but all other areas probably see highs above normal. A better chance of high temperatures above normal for all areas then follows for Sunday and Monday with temperatures trying to rise aloft. Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of this week and may continue into early next week. The interaction between whatever is left of Jose with Hurricane Maria adds a great deal of uncertainty for Tuesday and Wednesday`s forecast. Will introduce a slight chance of showers for Tuesday, then bump them up into the chance category for Wednesday as Maria draws a little closer. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose and Maria. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Tropical cyclone Jose will meander off the southern New England coast through Friday. VFR all terminals except KGON which is expected to remain around 2k ft through much if not all of the overnight, before lifting back to VFR. Gusts have mostly subsided, however an occasional gust around 20 kt will be possible overnight. Gusts increase after sunrise, generally 20-30 kt, with the highest across the eastern terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night-Friday...VFR. N winds gusting between 20-25kt. .Saturday-Monday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Jose will continue to track slowly to the east-northeast through tonight and into early Thursday before meandering Thursday afternoon, and then begin to track westward late Thursday into Thursday night. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity forecasts for Jose. Small craft gusts will continue for the Eastern LI Sound, bays and ocean waters through Thursday Night. Gusts will however remain below 25 kt on the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet, and western nearshore waters. Long period easterly SCA swells will likely continue on the ocean waters through the week. There is some uncertainty regarding winds and seas Friday through early next week due to Jose. What seems more probable is that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell. For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly east of Fire Island Inlet and over eastern LI Sound and the eastern bays of LI for Friday and Saturday. Winds would then weaken thereafter as Jose weakens further. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels through the week will approach or exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks for the most vulnerable locales during the times of high tide. This is due to TC Jose becoming nearly stationary about a couple hundred miles to the southeast of eastern Long Island, and Ekman forces elevating water levels along the US East coast. Depending on the intensity and how close to the region Jose tracks Friday, localized moderate coastal flooding is possible along the south shore back bays of Long Island. Surf will remain rough through the week, but dune erosion is expected to localized. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ080-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330- 340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...DS/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JC/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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