Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201155 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 755 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT NEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN PASS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WILL MAINTAIN FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPS THIS MORNING. NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/VORT...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS EARLY MORNING...DIVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN TIME. AFTER MORNING CHILL...TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER THE SUN THIS MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT MORE OF THE SUN TO BE HIDDEN LATER IN THE DAY AS MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. LIGHT NW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH...THEN EAST OF THE AREA. FOR AFTERNOON HIGH/S...EXPECT READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S DUE TO LIMITED MIXING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY. ALOFT...DIGGING TROUGH CLOSES OFF TUESDAY NEAR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA PER NAM/GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF/CMC. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...EASTERN LOCALES MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF OBSERVING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO FETCH. WILL CAP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. ON TUESDAY...AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY RANGE...50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORMAL COOL SPOTS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN AND AROUND NYC. TUESDAY/S DAYTIME TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60S. THESE EXPECTED HIGH/S SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WX WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW PLODS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING INITIALLY WILL BE MORE ACROSS NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THAN SRN CT/ERN LONG ISLAND...SO THE FORMER WILL MAINTAIN PREV FCST OF LIKELY POP WHILE THE LATTER WILL BE ONLY AT CHANCE. WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH ON WED AND NAM/ECMWF SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING W-NW OF THE SFC LOW...MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR NYC/WRN LONG ISLAND ON WED...THEN THE FOCUS OF MODERATE RAIN SHOULD SHIFT MORE EAST INTO LONG ISLAND/CT...AND WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...ERN CT/LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT. AS THIS FORCING PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON THU...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THU NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DRIFTS TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING A DRYING NW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. AFTER SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP EARLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS FRI MORNING...FCST GOES DRY FOR THE REST OF THE PD. MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT/NRN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY NW FLOW ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI-SAT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES S AND E OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF -SHRA LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY KSWF AND EASTERN TERMINALS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDS ACROSS KSWF AND EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING..BECOME S/SSW BY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. LIGHT S/SE FLOW TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY...MVFR CIG AND -SHRA POTENTIAL GRADUALLY INCREASES TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. && .MARINE... WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AHEAD OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. IN FACT...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS BRIEFLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL SHORT OF THE 25 KTS FOR ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH YET AGAIN. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. SEAS SUBSIDE THIS MORNING...THEN MAY BUILD A FOOT OR TWO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE 5 FOOTERS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA CONDS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY ON THE OCEAN IN ENE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THESE CONDS MAY SUBSIDE ON THU...THEN RAMP BACK UP THU NIGHT-FRI IN NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY TODAY...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FROM TUE INTO THU. DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WED INTO WED NIGHT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008. NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069-070- 079>081. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-068. NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103-105- 107. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...NV MARINE...GOODMAN/PW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW

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