Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261601 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1201 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front will move across today. High pressure will build from the west on Wednesday, and move east by Thursday. A weak cold front will approach the region Thursday night into Friday, and linger into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Shortwave axis slides offshore this morning, with deep WNW flow today. At the surface a weak trough will develop and push east today. With 850 hpa temps still running in the high teens, deep mixing, downslope flow, and just some thin cirrus, expect temps to rise into the lower to mid 90s for much of the coastal plain, and the upper 80s/Lower 90s for the NW hills. Sea breezes should be limited to late day and immediate south coasts, if at all. Noticeably lower dewpoints should keep heat indices close to air temps, mid/upper 90s for NJ metro and mid 90s for the rest of NYC metro. Heat advisory continues. The risk for rip current development will be moderate for SE Suffolk county beaches, and will become moderate this afternoon as primary southerly swells increase to 3 ft with a 6-7" period, along with a secondary residual long period 1 ft SE swell.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Models in good agreement with the region lying between a closed low over northern Quebec and southeastern US ridging. Zonal upper flow to start will back to the SW ahead of developing Great Lakes troughing. At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region Wed and moves offshore Thu. Hot conditions will continue for mid week with highs generally in the lower/mid 90s away from the south coasts. Based on warming aloft and deep mixing, could see a few upper 90s across NE NJ metro on Thu. Afternoon sea breeze development should keep south coastal areas in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days. Dewpoints should remain in the lower 60s, perhaps upper 50s during peak heating Wed, keeping heat indices at air temps. At this point it is likely heat indices stay below 95 degrees on Wed. A gradual moderation in dewpoints is likely Thu with return flow, which should have heat indices returning to the mid to upper 90s for NYC/NJ metro and Lower Hud. Otherwise, relatively comfortable temps tonight and Wed night, particularly outside the urban centers. Radiational cooling should allow for temps to drop into the lower to mid 60s across far outlying areas, to mid 70s for NYC/Nj metro.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A weak cold front should move across from the northwest Thursday night into Friday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday as the system crosses the area, with the possibility of some heavy rain depending on the track. The front may settle nearby through the weekend, setting the stage for unsettled weather with chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. High pressure builds into the area Monday. Temperatures will be near normal Thursday night through Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west. Winds turning to the right of 310 MAG as a weak trough passes through the terminals. Wind speeds should average 8-12 KT at KNYC terminals, less than 10 KT elsewhere. By afternoon, winds back to the left of 310 MAG, to more of a W-SW flow, at 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT. Gusts up to 25 KT possible at KJFK late in the afternoon. Winds become N early this evening and lower to less than 10 KT. LGT/VRB winds likely after midnight tonight. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Winds 320-340 MAG this morning, backing to 250-270 MAG this afternoon. Gusts may be a few KT higher than forecast this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds 330-350 MAG this morning, backing to 280-300 MAG this afternoon. Gusts may be a few KT higher than forecast this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds 300-320 MAG this morning, backing to 290-310 MAG this afternoon. Gusts may be a few KT higher than forecast this afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMDs expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMDs expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMDs expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wednesday-Early Thursday Afternoon...VFR. .Mid-Late Thursday Afternoon-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions will prevail through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient in place via building high pressure. Near shore gusts up to 20 kt possible off land areas this afternoon where sea breezes fail to develop. Below small craft advisory conditions expected across the area waters Friday through the weekend with a weak pressure gradient.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Hot and dry today, with wind gusts 20-25 mph and min RH values in the 30s in the afternoon. A locally elevated threat for brush fire spread exists for areas that received little rainfall. SPS was issued earlier to address this per request of CT officials. Hot and dry conditions continue on Wednesday with min RH values in the 30s. Winds should be lighter than those of today.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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There is potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms from late Thursday into the weekend. While locally heavy rainfall is possible, it is much to early to pin down details.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176- 178. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MPS MARINE...FIG/Goodman/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV/Goodman

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