Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 111219 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 719 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds briefly across the area today. Low pressure will then pass across the Great Lakes tonight, while an associated warm front lifts through the waters Tuesday morning, followed by a strong trailing cold front in the afternoon. An intensifying low pressure system will move into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday night into Wednesday night, with brief high pressure building across the area in its wake. A weak Alberta Clipper passes to the south on Thursday, followed by a low pressure system passing off the coast late Friday into Friday night. High pressure returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Updates this morning to include the potential for light snow this morning, mainly across Connecticut and Long Island. Using extrapolation for the short wave seen on WV this morning and the back edge of the radar returns, any snow should be east of the area by around 8 am. Also updated to increase gusts this morning, as JFK has been reporting an occasional gust to near 30 mph. Any gusts should gradually diminish over the next few hours as high pressure begins to briefly build across the area. Skies will start off partly to mostly sunny, then clouds increase through the afternoon. High temperatures today will top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Low pressure moves across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday morning. The associated warm front approaches the area from the south late tonight into Tuesday with increasing chances of precipitation, followed by a strong trailing cold front Tuesday afternoon. Warm advection ahead of the main portion of the storm will make this a mixed precip event. Rain is forecast for the city, adjacent suburbs and coastal section, although some snow can mix in at first. Across inland areas, snow or a snow/rain mix changes over to rain as Temperatures rise during the morning hours on Tuesday. Snow accumulations expected to be 1 or 2 inches for the northern suburbs, with 2 to 3 inches expected further north across Orange County. Less than an inch is expected anywhere else where snow manages to accumulate. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and mid to upper 40s along the coast, with even some 50 degree readings for Long Island. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A period of brisk weather is anticipated Tuesday night into Thursday as an intensifying low pressure system moves towards the Canadian Maritimes. With the tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the low, strong cold advection combined with sustained winds around 20-30 mph and gusts above 40 mph will lead to wind chill values in the single digits to teens on Wednesday, and largely the single digits to near zero Wednesday night. Although some moderation will occur on Thursday as flow backs to the WSW ahead of the next system, temperatures will remain well below climatological normals, with cold wind chill values in lingering breezy flow. Overall, a blocking pattern with low pressure anchored over the East Coast will continue a period of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation as a series of waves rotate around the broader low. Chances of precipitation increase again into Friday as the subtropical jet shifts northward, combining with polar energy and leading to the development of a coastal low. The general track and intensity of the low will need to be monitored, but expected at least a slight chance of snow showers across the interior and perhaps a rain/snow mix along the coast into Friday night. Gusty flow and below normal temperatures will once again be possible as the low departs, with a slow moderation occurring through the weekend as high pressure builds across the area. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front will move across the area today. Mainly VFR today. A few snow showers will be possible early this morning, which may produce some brief MVFR cigs. The best chance of any snow showers will be east of NYC and only last til 13z. Cigs may drop to 3000ft. No runway accumulation expected, although visibility could be briefly reduced to MVFR or lower. Cigs fall to MVFR late in the TAF period, mainly after 09z Tuesday as a warm front pushes north of the area and associated low pressure system passes north of the area. precipitation starts after 06z, mainly in the form of a mix of rain and snow for most terminals, except KSWF, where precipitation should be all snow. As warmer air works into the the coastal locations, precipitation should quickly change over to all rain. Interior locations should stay snow through at least 12z Tuesday. Generally westerly winds today. There may be a few occasional gusts early this morning, then gusts become more frequent during the afternoon with speeds around 20 kt. Gusts will end after 23Z. Tonight, winds become more southerly and remain less than 10 kt. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts this afternoon may be occasional. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts this afternoon may be occasional. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts this afternoon may be occasional. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts this afternoon may be occasional. KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts this afternoon may be occasional. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts this afternoon may be occasional. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible with a wintry mix to rain at northern terminals and rain at southern terminals. Conditions improve to VFR Tuesday afternoon. SE-SW winds G15-25KT possible. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR in snow showers. W-NW winds G20-35KT probable. .Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR. W-SW winds G15-25KT possible. .Friday...MVFR possible with snow. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible.
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&& .MARINE... Update this morning to extend the SCA on the eastern Long Island Sound with ongoing gusts. As high pressure begins to build across the area, gusts will gradually begin to diminish, with seas slowly subsiding on the ocean waters later today. Winds and seas then increase again on Tuesday, with SCA conditions becoming likely on the area waters. By Tuesday night, gale- force winds will be possible as an intensifying low pressure system ejects into the Canadian Maritimes. Gusty flow and at least SCA-level conditions will continue into Thursday before gradually subsiding into Thursday night as flow weakens across the area. Relatively tranquil conditions persist through Friday before winds and seas increase into Friday night behind a departing low pressure system. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts expected. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. See our headline news on the web at: http:/weather.gov/nyc The Riverhead NOAA Weather Radio Station WXM-80 (162.475 MHz) is currently out of service. NWS technicians are working with Verizon to restore service. An estimated time of return to service is not currently known. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ330- 340. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/Fig NEAR TERM...MD/Fig SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...BC MARINE...MD/Fig HYDROLOGY...MD/Fig EQUIPMENT...

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