Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010611 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 211 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FINAL SHORTWAVE FOR THE NIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN IS MORE ISOLATED THAN LAST EVENING...HOWEVER THE LOCATIONS WHERE THIS HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ARE MORE FLOOD PRONE. 00Z FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TO BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH IN PORTIONS OF NE NJ. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL RE-EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE FRONT LOCATED IN THE VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE ADDITION OF SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE REGION BECOMING LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-90 KT JET. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. POP CONTINUES AT CATEGORICAL TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN VERY HIGH...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH CLOUDS...E/NE FLOW...AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE SMALLER THAN USUAL...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY UPPER 40S AT SOME SPOTS WELL INLAND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THEN THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OUT EAST...AND WILL TAPER POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS...DRY WX WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE E-NE AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE CITY TERMINALS. CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BE IFR...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THEY FALL TO LIFR THROUGH 13Z. HAVE VCTS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO 3 TO 5SM IN THIS ACTIVITY...AND SHOULD STAY DOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE...MORE SHRA WITH IFR CONDS WITH E-NE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING MONDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY...RAIN ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A COMBO OF E FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT PLUS INCOMING 3-FT SWELL SHOULD BUILD SEAS ON MOST OCEAN WATERS TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO SCA ISSUED E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. ALTHOUGH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT JUST BEGAN AT BUOY 44065...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED...SO WILL RUN WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. NOT SURE IF THESE CONDS WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT...WITH CONDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...WITH TRANQUIL CONDS. && .HYDROLOGY... FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM FOR NYC...NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT. SOME AREAS HAVE PICKED UP OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY...AND ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT...THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING COMMUTE. EVENT TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 3-4 INCHES EXPECTED INLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH 1.5-2 INCHES EXPECTED FOR NYC...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOD-HVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED FOR THIS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005-006- 009-010. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>075- 176-178. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$

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