Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 031757 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 17Z. TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS. SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS. COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A TEMPO. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF AFT 4-6Z. A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT... .REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT. .WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW. .FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE. .SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.
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&& .MARINE... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING. OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. && .HYDROLOGY... THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...JP/DS AVIATION...JMC MARINE...DS/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE

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