Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 242014 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 414 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure troughs forming over land each day will move offshore each night through Tuesday night, while strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move through at night. A cold front approaching from the north on Friday will stall nearby into the holiday weekend, with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A mostly clear night expected after transverse bands of cirrocumulus drift across late today. Gusty winds will diminish toward/after sunset, then a weak boundary should move through late tonight, with light NW-N winds. Lows tonight should range from the mid 50s inland/Long Island Pine Barrens, to the mid 60s invof NYC. A high surf advy and high rip current risk continue into this evening via incoming long period S swell (6-7 ft/9 sec). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday should be another mostly sunny and pleasantly warm day, with highs 75-80. Another weak inland trough/pseudo-cold front should set up over land, and move offshore at night. As this takes place, an afternoon sea breeze should give way to stronger W winds for a while from late day into the evening. Low temps will be just a touch cooler than those fcst for tonight, ranging from the lower 50s inland, to lower 60s in/just outside NYC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temperature though mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be "unsettled." Region is in the right rear entrance to a strong 120+ KT polar jet streak along with SFC trof over the Hudson valley on Monday afternoon. Fortunately, instability is limited to below 500 HPA - at least based on SREF and GFS. NWP QPF is near zero and have thus confined any PoP to extreme NW area. Similar situation on Tuesday with perhaps a tad more instability and pseudo cold FROPA. Have a 20 POP for the AFTN. Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday. Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday weekend at this time. Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front pushes east of the terminals today. High pressure builds into the region tonight and Sunday. All the precipitation has ended across the terminals. VFR for the remainder of the TAF period. Main headline will be the gusty winds this afternoon. West-Northwest winds will gust to 20-25 kt, with some occasional higher gusts possible until 00z or so. Winds diminish tonight with many locations becoming light and variable. Seabreezes are expected to develop Sunday late morning/afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday afternoon-Sunday Night...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes expected. .Monday...VFR. Coastal sea breezes expected. .Tuesday...VFR. Isolated TSRA north and west of NYC. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Rough ocean conditions expected into tonight, with NW near shore winds gusting to 20-25 kt. The stronger winds appear confined to around NY Harbor, to the SCA there remains in effect til 8 PM. Ocean seas running 7-9 ft at the offshore buoys are 1-2 ft above both WaveWatch and NWPS, so have extended the SCA there into Sunday. There could be a brief lull in seas Sunday afternoon before a tighter pressure gradient ahead of an approaching trough possibly brings them back to 5 ft. have held off on extending SCA that far out in time to see if the 1-2 ft anomaly between observed and model forecast seas continues into Sunday. For the longer term...tranquil on Monday and continuing through Thursday morning. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria late Thursday and continue as such on Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... See Public Information Statement for area rainfall reports from this morning`s heavy rain. No hydrologic impacts expected Sunday and through at least the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the evening high tide cycles. NW flow has pushed enough water away from most susceptible locations to keep water levels tonight below flood benchmarks. This does not look for the be the case however for the Nassau south shore bays, where water levels should briefly touch or barely exceed minor thresholds early this evening, from 8-10 PM. && .EQUIPMENT... * The KOKX Doppler Weather Radar (WSR-88D) remains unavailable due to required maintenance. The radar could return to service as early as Sunday. * Surface Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains, NY and KHVN (New Haven,CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080- 081. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Tongue NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...BC MARINE...Goodman/Tongue HYDROLOGY...Goodman/Tongue TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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