Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211810 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 110 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches from the west today and passes through early Wednesday followed by high pressure. A warm front moves north Saturday followed by a cold front Saturday night. High pressure builds to the west Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast on track. Mainly sunny day with patchy cirrus. High temperatures a few degrees above normal due to SW flow ahead of approaching northern stream trough. Gusty winds this afternoon 20-30 mph, with the highest gusts along the coast due to increasing surface pressure gradient. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Rather impressive shortwave over the Gulf of Mexico with convection firing in the right rear quadrant of 100 kt jet streak. This convection lifts rapidly across FL to off the Carolina coast this evening. Jet then strengthens to 120 KT ahead of the sharpening of the northern stream shortwave. NWP, including the GEFS, SREF and HREFv2 (replaced SPC`s SSEO) ensembles all support rain moving into NYC/Long Island and S. CT before sunrise. Have raise POPs significantly from previous forecast due the observed dynamics and the consensus of the latest NWP. Rain will move east of the region by noon though as colder air rushes in Wednesday afternoon with gusty NW winds and clearing skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Long range models are in good agreement through Fri, with noticeable differences starting Sat as a shortwave approaching from the Northern Rockies interacts with a Canadian vortex near Hudson Bay. This is leading to timing and amplitude differences with the 00z EC now developing a cutoff low over New England Sun night. GFS remains open. As such, no big changes to the previous forecast through the end of the week, but have cut back on the extent of PoPs associated with the warm fropa on Sat as models have trended slower and drier. Southern stream shortwave and developing sfc low passes well S and E of the area Sat/Sat night as a cold front moves through the local area. Not much moisture for the front to work with have kept the forecast dry Sat night. Since the upper pattern is a bit uncertain next weekend, this offshore low will need to be watched. If the full latitude trough amplifies more, the low would shift to the west and could result in potential impacts. A secondary cold front with a reinforcing shot of cold air could bring a few showers to the area on Sun with gusty winds developing in its wake. Vigorous shortwave in the GFS which EC is weaker. SCHC to low CHC PoPs with this feature. Soundings mostly support rain at this time, although could get some wet snowflakes Sun morning N and W of NYC. Daytime temperatures are expected to be below normal through the period, except on Sat in the warm sector. Overnight lows also below normal except Fri/Sat nights where they`ll be near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will slide further of the Mid-Atlantic Coast today. A cold front will approach from the west late tonight as low pressure moves up the coast, with the front passing through during Wed morning. VFR until late tonight, then rain with the weak low moving up the coast will spread into the terminals late tonight into Wed morning, with MVFR conds developing by about 10Z-11Z at first, then IFR conds at KISP/KGON after 12Z-13Z. Gusty SW winds mostly 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (KGON higher) should gradually diminish close to and after sunset, to 10 kt or less by late evening on. Winds will shift NW with cold fropa mainly early Wed morning, with speeds not picking up until close to midday in the NYC metros as the rain ends. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: A few gusts up to 20 kt may hang on between 22Z-02Z. KLGA TAF Comments: A few gusts between 15-20 kt may hang on between 22Z-01Z. KEWR TAF Comments: A few gusts between 15-20 kt may hang on between 22Z-01Z. KTEB TAF Comments: A few gusts between 15-20 kt may hang on between 22Z-01Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Brief IFR conditions may be possible from 11Z-13Z. KISP TAF Comments: A few gusts between 15-20 kt may hang on between 23Z-02Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon-night...MVFR conds early afternoon at KGON, otherwise VFR. NW winds 15G20-25KT, right of 310 mag. .Thursday through Friday night...VFR. .Saturday...VFR. SW winds G15-20KT. .Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. NW winds G20KT.
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&& .MARINE... SSW increase this evening as a cold front approaches for the west. Gales now up for this evening over the far eastern waters. Upgraded the SCA to Gale Warning for the eastern Bays due to gusts likely reaching gale force for several hours this evening as high winds mix down over the bays. The cold front will be moving east of the forecast waters early Wednesday as high pressure builds to the west. SCA winds all waters on Wednesday diminish Wed night. Seas on the ocean may remain elevated into Fri due to a SE swell. Gusts will approach SCA levels on Sat but should remain below criteria. An increasing SW flow could bring seas back up to SCA levels on the ocean late Fri night into Sat. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated the next 7 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330- 340-350. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-340-350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/24/Tongue NEAR TERM...CB/Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...CB/24/Tongue HYDROLOGY...24/Tongue

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