-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 141733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE NORTH
FOR MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE...AND WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
WILL BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TURNING SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM UP THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING UP IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING
AROUND MIDDAY. SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL OFF A FEW
DEGREES THIS EVENING THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES...AND FOLLOWED THE MAV TEMPERATURE CURVE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF CLEARING AS CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS WITH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A TRANSITION TO
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. MOST INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND
DEGREE OF PHASING OF A SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES ATTM WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW TODAY.
DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
ITSELF...WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. NAM AND SOME
EARLIER RUNS OF THE CANADIAN HAVE EJECTED THE TROUGH WHOLESALE...
LEADING TO A MORE NORTHERLY AND SNOWIER SOLUTION FOR OUR REGION.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN INITIAL
WAVE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT-MON AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AND BRINGING THE BULK OF ANY SNOWFALL DURING THAT TIME...WHILE A
STRONGER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE 15/00Z FCST CYCLE TO BETTER SAMPLE
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM ENTERS THE U.S.
RAOB NETWORK. THAT SAID...THE GENERAL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER.

PRIOR TO THIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST SAT EVENING.

AS THE STORM MOVES OUT TO SEA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE N
TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS TIMING AND TRACK...HAVE CHC POP
SPANNING FROM WED THROUGH THU...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE SCALED
BACK IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTN WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
SFC WND SPEEDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30
KT RANGE.

BY THIS EVENING...WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL INCREASE TO 55 KT...THUS
THE LLWS REMARKS.

VFR ON SAT WITH SCT -SHRA IN THE EARLY MORNING. SFC WINDS VEER TO
W BY LATE MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WND FCST THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH DIRECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SW THAN SOUTH.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WND FCST THIS
AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WND FCST THIS
AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AVERAGES JUST LEFT OF 220 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WND FCST THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WND FCST THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WND FCST THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR. W WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NY METRO
AND LONG ISLAND...IFR. NE WIND G25+ KT POSSIBLE MONDAY.
.TUESDAY...VFR. NE WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WED...IFR POSSIBLE IN RA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN INCREASING SW FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ALSO BUILD BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT
CROSS THE WATERS DURING SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW BY LATE TONIGHT.

SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT
AFTER AN EVENING COLD FROPA.

TRANQUIL CONDS THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON EVENING...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS VIA E SWELL
MAY LINGER THEREAFTER INTO TUE OR TUE NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMTS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY EXACT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
EQUIPMENT...