-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 251137
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS SKIES CLEARED THIS MORNING AND WINDS LIGHTENED...TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY. UPDATES TO CURRENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH
ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S
ACROSS COASTAL CONNECTICUT...METRO NE NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK
CITY...AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MID-LEVEL FORCING STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES. THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY AS
WELL...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE. FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING
THE DAY WITH THE SMALL POSSIBILITY THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ABLE TO ADVANCE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MORNING AND RISE INTO THE
TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING ON UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH DIFFERS...AS DOES
TIMING. TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST...WITH EITHER FLAT FLOW OR WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND. THEN WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY
EJECTS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY...WITH LARGER DIFFERENCES NOTED. THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS.

AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ALL
FORECAST A SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA MONDAY...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BY
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID WEST TOWARD GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH ECMWF SLOWER THAN GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

WHAT THIS MEANS IS MAINLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST...WITH PERHAPS THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND SNOW COULD
BECOME A WINTRY MIX...WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT WITH REGARD TO
WAA.

WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY ENDS MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY. AGAIN...DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

TEMPS REMAIN DOWNRIGHT COLD COURTESY OF ARCTIC HIGH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...WITH A COLDER NIGHT LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED LOWS FROM
AROUND ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY.

EXPECTED HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. 20S EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. WHILE THIS IS WARMER...IT IS STILL
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

SW-W WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT...INCREASE AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT FROM ABOUT 14Z-15Z TO 22Z-23Z. WINDS THEN VEER NW-N
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR DAYTIME. THEN CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA UNTIL 23Z ON
THE OCEAN WATERS FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5
FT. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON ALL WATERS.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. IN GENERAL...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME.

WINDS LIGHTEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SEAS REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS WEEK.
SEAS SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS LIGHTEN. FOR THE HARBORS/BAYS AND
SOUND...SEAS/WAVES REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND PERIOD. MANY AREAS ARE AFFECTED BY ICE AS WELL...AND THIS
CONTINUES AS COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW