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873
FXUS61 KOKX 100806
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
406 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary frontal boundary across the region through tonight
eventually shifts farther south heading into the start of the
weekend. High pressure builds east of the waters for the latter half
of this weekend before weakening early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A frontal boundary is stalled out across the region. Not much
translational movement is expected through today with the front.
Weak waves of low pressure travel along it.

Right rear quadrant of upper level jet is near the region through
today. Mid level positive vorticity advection adds further forcing.

POPs for showers and thunderstorms remain through the day.
Intermittent nature to the convection.

Temperatures today with a slight decrease in 850mb temperatures and
more shower and thunderstorm activity, a cooler but still very humid
day expected.

Added in patchy fog going into early this morning especially in
those areas that had more rain and thereby have more moisture laden
grounds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The convective coverage will be on a downward trend tonight as
forcing decreases with the loss of daytime instability.

Upper level forcing decreases with jet streak moving farther
northeast of the region tonight. Troughing pattern eventually
transitions to more of a ridging pattern.

The frontal boundary weakens at the surface and eventually settles
to the south of the region by the weekend.

The showers and thunderstorms have less coverage Friday and Saturday
and will be driven more by the daytime instability and daytime
troughing as well as low level convergence. The forcing aloft will
be minimal as ridging becomes more apparent.

Daytime temperatures on a warming trend but will be limited as flow
retains more of an easterly component.

Added in patchy fog for late tonight into early Friday morning with
less winds and some radiational cooling allow for more low level
saturation considering the continued humid environment.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages
- Showers and thunderstorms are a daily concern through
Monday, thanks to a lingering boundary and plenty of moisture from
the onshore flow. Western forecast areas are at the greatest risk,
as daytime heating will boost instability.

- The greatest uncertainty in the forecast period, particularly for
temperatures and PoPs, remains Sunday through Monday. This is
attributed to the varied handling of a weak frontal system by the
ensembles.

- Next week, temperatures are expected to warm up, reaching the mid
80s to around 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. ML
guidance is hinting at a low (10-30%) threat for severe weather that
will need to be monitored, along with a frontal system late in the
week.

No major changes made to the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A stationary frontal boundary remains near the terminals through
tonight.

Mainly VFR to start early this morning with some local IFR-LIFR
across eastern Long Island and coastal CT. Complex of showers and
thunderstorms has moved east of the area, but lingering showers are
possible through at least day break. MVFR is otherwise expected
around day break, but confidence in it prevailing is low so have
gone with tempos at most sites except east of the NYC metros.

VFR is anticipated this afternoon with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Have left the PROB30 in place for NYC metro and Lower
Hudson Valley terminals this afternoon and early evening. Coverage
however may end up more isolated. Conditions should lower tonight
with MVFR most sites and IFR or LIFR possible east of the NYC metro
terminals.

Mainly light winds this morning. A light W or SW flow may develop at
NYC terminals after day break but winds should gradually become S-SE
late morning into the afternoon remaining under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR may prevail this morning and could linger a few hours longer
than in TAF this afternoon.

Some variability in wind direction is possible throughout the TAF
period as wind speeds will overall be light.

Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: MVFR or lower possible.

Friday - Sunday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the NYC
terminals with MVFR possible.

Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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No hazards are expected outside of thunderstorms as conditions are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Some patchy fog will be
possible into this morning as well as late tonight into early Friday
morning, which could possibly be dense.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Minor risk for flash flooding with otherwise poor drainage, urban
and low lying flooding with any thunderstorms in the short term.
Today holds relatively higher chance of these thunderstorms with
more coverage in the forecast.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Rip current risk forecast is moderate both for today and Friday
for the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island due to onshore flow
of near 5-10 kts as well as 3 to 4 ft of 7-8 sec period swell as
well as some smaller onshore long period swell of 1 ft and
11-12 sec period.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/99
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/99
HYDROLOGY...JM/99
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...