Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 171429 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1029 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WHICH MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONTS OF THE AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TOO MUCH. OTHERWISE...WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 900-875 HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXPECT READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF WED AND THURS. WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY. E WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR. WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 08Z FRIDAY BUT MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING. .SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081- 177-179. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ069-070. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NJZ004-103-105-107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/SEARS SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...IRD MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.