Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010331 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1131 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY... WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WAA DOES NOT COMMENCE IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TOWARD MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40 OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATE AT NIGHT. DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST INDICES. WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES. 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL OCCURS. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BACK SE-E SUNDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING. IFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU... .SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. .TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR. .WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH. SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN. && .HYDROLOGY... AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...DS/PW HYDROLOGY...DS/PW

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