Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290554 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 154 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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EXTENDED THE SPRINKLES FOR AN EXTRA HOUR BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...THE FCST WAS ON TRACK. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. THE SKY WILL TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE CITY. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. USE A MAV/MET BLEND...WHICH WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO MONDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO EXPECT A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS...SO EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NYC. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE RIDGING LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES WARRANTS MAINLY CHANCE POPS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS NW 1/3 OF THE CWA. AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA TROUGH WARRANTS LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE. THEN HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING BELOW ZERO TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF THUNDER THEN AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY CAPES INCREASE TO ON AVERAGE 1500-2500 J/KG FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR BY AFTERNOON AS WELL (40-50 KT OF SHEAR IN THE MORNING). ALSO HAVE 25-35 KT 850 JET AS WELL NEAR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE...A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGER SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER E ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER E ZONES AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS TO THE SOUTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE THURSDAY-SUNDAY ON HOW FAR TO THE S THE COLD FRONT SINKS BEFORE IT STALLS OUT...THEN HOW QUICKLY IT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STALLING OUT AGAIN. ALSO DIFFER IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL SPAWN WEAK LOWS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AS WELL. BASED ON THIS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY-SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WHEN THERE IS CURRENTLY THE GREATEST INDICATION THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS AT MOST OF LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS KHPN/KBDR EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH KGON FOLLOWING SUIT AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 040-050 CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW...BACKING TO THE SW AT THE S COASTS AFT 15-18Z. LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KISP. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...VFR. .TUESDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHRA WITH SCT TSRA. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.
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&& .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL THE OCEAN WATERS. THE OCEAN WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT...WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SE/S SWELLS...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ON THE WATERS. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY-FRIDAY. A POSSIBLE BUILDING SE-S SWELL COULD BRING SEAS TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AND GIVEN EXPECTED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/MALOIT SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...NV MARINE...BC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT

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