Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281757 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1257 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 12Z KALY AND KOKX SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS 12Z BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND 950 HPA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 850-700 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING AND WRAPPING UP BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS LI AND NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN VSBY RAPIDLY LOWERING TO IFR DURING MID TO LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT AT KGON AND N-NW WINDS 5-8 KT AT KBDR/KISP SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS IN NYC METRO THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO BE N-NW THEN BACKING W-NW BEFORE ALSO GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED... *** FCST PRECIP TYPES/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE UPDATED BETWEEN 20Z-21Z *** .SUNDAY...SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AT THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS LATE. TOTAL MOST LIKELY TOTAL RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES AT KSWF...2-3 INCHES AT KHPN/KBDR/KGON...AND 1-2 INCHES AT THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS. .MON-MON NIGHT...BECOMING VFR EARLY. NW WINDS G15-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .TUE...MAINLY VFR. .TUE NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WED...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE. .WED NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS TIL MON...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED TO SCA LEVELS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL COMPLEX APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS THU...KEEPING SCA CONDITIONS LOCKED IN. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG NEAR TERM...FIG/MALOIT SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...JMC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...FIG

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