Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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900 FXUS61 KOKX 180807 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 307 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be the main weather feature today through Tuesday with only a couple of dry cold front passages Sunday and Monday mornings. A warm front will approach Tuesday night followed by a weak cold front becoming nearly stationary in our vicinity Wednesday through Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure over the region will bring us a mostly sunny day. Associated subsidence limits mixing to around 950mb inland and even lower near the coast with a SW return flow. Even so, temps at the top of the mixed layer and mostly sunny conditions should allow high temps in the 50s for most areas with even a 60 degree reading or two for the urbanized areas of NE NJ.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front approaches late tonight. No PCPN expected with this, but just enough clouds and winds to prevent ideal radiational cooling. A MAV/NAM MOS blend looked good for lows. Cold front moves through during Sunday morning. Models differ regarding the magnitude of cold air advection, but all agree on a deeper mixing layer due to offshore flow behind the front. So although temps aloft cool, downsloping winds with a mostly afternoon should bring high temps around or a little higher than those of today in most cases. Dry weather continues Sunday night with a mostly clear sky.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front moves through dry during Monday morning, then deep- layered ridging will follow through Tuesday. Little in the way of clouds during this period. Monday will be at little breezy with the onset of cold air advection, then light winds for Monday night and Tuesday. Preferred cooler SuperBlend over NAM and MAV MOS for high temps on Monday. Tuesday`s high will then be slightly cooler with shallower mixing and not much of a change in temps aloft. Tuesday Night thru the day Wednesday...will bring our next chc for a light "mainly" rain event between the retreating high and approaching short wave trough. Most likely rainfall amounts one tenth to one quarter inch. Areas of light freezing rain possible for a few hours across the far northern zones, including interior southern CT. Thursday and Friday...with more sun on Thu, temps once again are forecast between 50 and 60 degrees, near 15 degrees above normal on a light W flow. As low pressure approaches Friday with more cloud cover and a light onshore flow, temps are fcst mainly in the upper 40s and low 50s, still above normal values.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure remains south of the region as a warm front moves across the area today. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light and variable winds increase from the Southwest today with gusts between 15-20 kt developing during the late morning and afternoon. Timing of gusts could be 1-3 hours off. A low level jet develops this evening of near 40kt at 2kft presenting low level wind shear. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night-Sunday afternoon...VFR. LLWS diminishes overnight. .Sunday night-Monday...VFR. NW winds near to right of 310 mag 10kt with gusts near 15-20kt during the daytime. .Monday night through Tuesday evening...VFR. .Late Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR possible in rain.
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&& .MARINE...
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Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend. Winds do increase a bit this afternoon and overnight tonight which will bring a few occasional gusts to 25 kt. Seas will build to 4 ft. A cold front will move across the waters on Sunday. Following the cold frontal passage and as canadian high pressure builds southeast across the area, a Small Craft Advisory/SCA is possible across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters south of Long Island Sunday night and Monday as NW winds range from 15-20 kt with occasional gusts near 25 kt and seas build to around 4 feet.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days as any snow melt will be gradual. The next light "mainly" rainfall between one tenth and 1/4 inch is forecast between a retreating high pressure system and an approaching low Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/JC NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...GC/JC AVIATION...BC MARINE...BC/GC HYDROLOGY...GC/JC

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