Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220619 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 219 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES GENERALLY PTCLDY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/PATCHY FOG ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S MOST PLACES... PERHAPS UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE CT AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT 3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS SHOWN. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY. GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG/STRATUS EARLY TUE AM. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE AT TERMINALS E OF NYC. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT KISP/KBDR/KGON WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. AREAS OF MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. TIMING OF -SHRA IN CURRENT TAFS MAY BE +/- 1-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR THE CITY...NJ...AND HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF IT AFFECTING KEWR/KTEB ARE UNCERTAIN. KLGA/KHPN HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE...WITH KJFK/KBDR/KGON MOST LIKELY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUE NIGHT...-SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS ENDING IN THE EVE. COLD FROPA WITH NW-N WINDS G20-25KT IN ITS WAKE. .WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT. .FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.
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