Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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597 FXUS61 KOKX 271537 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1137 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THEN RETREAT NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY...AND SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A COLD RAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES REMAINS THROUGH TODAY WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING AS A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. LATEST UPDATE REFLECTS NEAR TERM TRENDS. LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND MSP CU RULE BOTH SUGGEST WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE TO FCST HIGH TEMPS WHICH UNDER WEAK CAA SHOULD BE BELOW AVG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW DRIFTS EAST. THE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. INLAND AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS AROUND FREEZING. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS FROST FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY. WITH AREAS OF FROST HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAK RIDGE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY WEAKENS AS A SHEARING SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENERGY WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...A LITTLE FASTER THEN THE NAM...AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL BRING IN SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STILL PROGGED TO GET INTO THE CWA THU NGT...THEN RESIDUAL SHRTWV ENERGY FROM THE MASSIVE H5 LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MAY SWING THRU ON FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES PLAYING OUT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IS STILL FAIRLY LOW...SO KEPT POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 RANGE. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN ON SAT. PER THE GFS...IT LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE MAIN 1035 HIGH OVER CANADA ATTEMPTS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LGT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SAT NGT AND/OR SUN. THE ECMWF HOWEVER CONTINUES TO HAVE NO PART OF THIS...AND INSTEAD KEEPS IT DRY OVER THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR SHWRS SAT NGT AND SUN BASED ON GFS CONSISTENCY. THE MODELS THEREAFTER CONTINUE THEIR DIVERGENCE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS LOW PRES TRACKING JUST OFF THE DELMARVA SUN NGT...S OF LI MON...AND INTO THE MARITIMES TUE. THE GFS KEEPS LOW PRES S OF THE REGION AND THE CWA COMPLETELY DRY. THE PREV FCST HAD RELATIVELY HIGH CHC POPS FOR THIS EVENT...SEEMINGLY IN LINE WITH THE PREV ECMWF. THIS FCST MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY AND FOLLOWS THE 00Z ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE FOR SOME WET FLAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYS...PARTICULARLY THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CT. TEMPS CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND THRU THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY FROM THE NORTH. BACK EDGE OF THE MID DECK PUSHING THROUGH KNYC TERMINALS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BETWEEN 16-17Z...AND ONCE THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING...IT SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO COME THROUGH KNYC TERMINALS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 17Z AT SOUTHERN MOST TERMINALS AND 19-20Z AT TERMINALS FARTHER INLAND. WINDS LGT/VRB...BCMG S 10 KT OR LESS WITH PASSAGE OF SEA BREEZE. SEA BREEZE ALREADY THROUGH KBDR/KGON...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH KISP SHORTLY. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE THROUGH FROM 17-18Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE THROUGH FROM 18-20Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM TAF. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM TAF. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM TAF. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR THU AM. THEN MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN THEREAFTER. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. && .MARINE... MAY HAVE TO REISSUE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ARE STILL AT 5 FT. OTHERWISE...QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BLW SCA LVLS THU NGT THRU SUN. EXCEPTION ATTM IS FRI-SAT ON THE OCEAN...WHERE PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD SEAS INTO THE 4-6FT RANGE. IF LOW PRES TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION MON-TUE...SCA CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FCST LATE THU THRU FRI. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF LOW PRES TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE HSA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067-068- 070-079-081. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET

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